Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Global risk-on surge to fresh records as strong AI-linked earnings (Palantir +29%) and US-Iran Strait of Hormuz de-escalation hopes crushed oil prices, lifted equities worldwide, and propelled EGX 30 to all-time highs above 54,000.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,736.52+1.79%Dow Jones54,085.88+1.71%Nasdaq Composite26,584.99+2.59%FTSE 10010,879.38+0.20%DAX26,202.35+0.77%CAC 408,666.63+0.61%Gold$4,095.77Brent$84.67USD/EGP50.25+0.35%EUR/USD1.1529+0.13%CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,736.52+1.79%Dow Jones54,085.88+1.71%Nasdaq Composite26,584.99+2.59%FTSE 10010,879.38+0.20%DAX26,202.35+0.77%CAC 408,666.63+0.61%Gold$4,095.77Brent$84.67USD/EGP50.25+0.35%EUR/USD1.1529+0.13%CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
54,434.20
+0.71%
S&P 500
7,736.52
+1.79%
Gold
$4,095.77
USD / EGP
50.25
+0.35%
Brent
$84.67
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
54,434
▲ +357% 5y
8,49720,83233,16745,50257,837 20212022202320242025-H12026-08-05 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
50.25
▲ +220% 5y
12.9223.0133.1043.1953.28 20212022202320242025-H12026-08-05 USD / EGP
CBE Policy Rate (overnight deposit) · %
19.00%
▼ Held 3rd consecutive MPC; cut 100bps Feb 2026 from 20%
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 2021202220232024-H22025-H12026-022026-08-05 CBE Policy Rate (overnight deposit)
S&P 500 · index
7,736.52
▲ +62% 5y; record high 4 Aug
3,5284,6585,7896,9198,049 20212022202320242025-H12026-08-04 S&P 500
Fed Funds Target · %
3.50–3.75%
— Held Jul 2026 meeting; 3 dissenters favoring hike
-0.3%1.2%2.8%4.3%5.8% 20212022202320242025-H12026-08-05 Fed Funds Target
Gold (XAU/USD) · $/oz
$4,095.77
▲ +124% 5y; +21.6% yr/yr
1,6422,3012,9603,6194,278 20212022202320242025-H12026-08-05 Gold (XAU/USD)
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Record close, 4 Aug 2026 — CNN/CNBC7,736.52+1.79%
Dow Jones First ever close above 54,000 — CNBC 4 Aug 202654,085.88+1.71%
Nasdaq Composite Led by Palantir +29% — CNBC 4 Aug 202626,584.99+2.59%
FTSE 100 Yahoo Finance, close 4 Aug 202610,879.38+0.20%
DAX Yahoo Finance, close 4 Aug 202626,202.35+0.77%
CAC 40 Yahoo Finance, close 4 Aug 20268,666.63+0.61%
Nikkei 225 Yahoo Finance, close 4 Aug 2026; Asia futures pointing higher 5 Aug65,983.53+3.17%
Hang Seng Trading Economics, close 4 Aug 2026; fifth consecutive gain26,009.00+0.48%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 Intraday 5 Aug 2026, Investing.com; within range of all-time high 54,978 (11 May 2026)54,434.20+0.71%
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit — Held at Jul 2026 MPC — 3rd consecutive hold, pausing easing cycle.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending — Held — effective 15 Feb 2026 after 100bps cut.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit19.00%Held at Jul 2026 MPC — 3rd consecutive hold, pausing easing cycle
Overnight lending20.00%Held — effective 15 Feb 2026 after 100bps cut
Main operation19.50%Held — effective 15 Feb 2026
Discount rate19.50%Held — effective 15 Feb 2026
Treasury bills
91-day24.85%Min yield at last published CBE auction (Oct 2025 reference); Aug 2026 auction results not yet posted on CBE.org.eg as of 5 Aug
182-day25.89%Weighted avg yield, last published CBE auction
273-dayNot verified
364-dayNot verified
Treasury bonds
3-yearNot verified today
5-yearNot verified today
10-yearNot verified today
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.65%
1-year UST4.04%
2-year UST4.20%
3-year UST4.25%
5-year UST4.33%
10-year UST4.63%
30-year UST5.18%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.19%
United Kingdom
BoE Bank Rate Held 18 Jun 2026 in 7-2 vote — Cambridge Currencies3.75%
SONIA overnight Bank of England / MacroMicro, as of 28 Jul 2026 (last available)3.73%
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP50.25+0.35%
EUR / EGP58.830.00%
GBP / EGP68.73-0.04%
SAR / EGP~13.39n/a
EUR / USD1.1529+0.13%
GBP / USD1.3441+0.11%
USD / JPY157.66+0.30%
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD Trading Economics 5 Aug 2026; steadied near $4,100 on Hormuz deal hopes trimming Sep Fed hike bets to ~57%▲ $4,095.77
Brent Crude · LCO Investing.com 5 Aug 2026 early; fell to $81.77 on 4 Aug (Forbes) on Iran deal optimism, partial recovery 5 Aug▲ $84.67
WTI Crude · CL Investing.com 5 Aug 2026; 52-wk range $54.98–$117.63▲ $81.03
Silver · XAG/USD Investing.com 5 Aug 2026▲ $58.87
05

Global Economy

US · Equities · AI Earnings

S&P 500 hits record 7,737 as Palantir soars 29% on blowout Q2; Dow first closes above 54,000

(4 Aug) US stocks closed at fresh all-time highs Tuesday, supported by strong AI-driven corporate earnings and optimism over a potential US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 jumped 1.79% to 7,736.52 and the Dow gained 907 points to 54,085.88. Palantir Technologies led the advance with a 29% single-day surge after delivering blowout second-quarter results.

Read full article → CNN Business · CNBC · Trading Economics
Middle East · Energy · Iran

US-Iran Strait of Hormuz talks raise re-opening hopes, hammering oil prices

(4 Aug) Qatar confirmed an interim proposal had been prepared, and both Washington and Tehran signalled progress in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a sharp decline in oil prices. Brent fell to $81.77/bbl on Monday before partially recovering. Markets trimmed bets on a September Fed rate hike to ~57%, down from ~67%.

Read full article → Trading Economics · Forbes Advisor
US · Fed · Rates

Fed held at 3.50–3.75% with three dissenters; markets price ~63% probability of Sep hike

(4 Aug) The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its late-July meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, though three policymakers dissented in favour of an immediate hike. Markets are now pricing approximately a 63% probability of a 25bps September hike, down from ~80% before the decision. Warsh reportedly is considering reducing the number of annual policy meetings from eight.

Read full article → Trading Economics · CNBC
Asia · Japan · Wages

Japan real wages rise for sixth consecutive month in June

(5 Aug) Japanese real wages increased for the sixth straight month in June 2026, signalling improving domestic conditions and supporting the case for continued Bank of Japan policy normalisation. Nikkei 225 surged 3.17% on 4 Aug to 65,983, aided by global risk-on and positive wage data. Asia-Pacific equity futures pointed to further gains on 5 Aug.

Read full article → marketintelshot.com · Yahoo Finance
Global · AI · Capex

Hyperscaler AI capex forecasts revised ~30% higher to $720bn for 2026 — BlackRock

(4 Aug) BlackRock Investment Institute's August 2026 weekly commentary notes consensus forecasts for hyperscaler capital spending in 2026 have been revised approximately 30% higher over the past six months to $720 billion, calling it the fastest AI investment buildout in history. The institute maintains a six-to-12-month tactical overweight on AI-exposed equities.

Read full article → BlackRock Investment Institute
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Real GDP growth (Q1 FY2025/26)
5.0%
-0.3pp q/q
Headline CPI (June 2026)
14.3%
-0.9pp m/m
CBE Policy Rate (overnight deposit)
19.00%
Held — 3rd consecutive MPC
USD/EGP interbank
50.25
+0.35% today
EGX 30 (intraday)
54,434
+0.71% today
Egypt nominal GDP (2026 IMF/WB est.)
$429.6bn
+4.2% real
EGX · IPO Pipeline

EGX CEO: Short-selling in final testing phase; up to 6 state companies could launch full IPOs in coming year

(4 Aug) In an exclusive interview with Enterprise, EGX Chairman Omar Radwan confirmed short-selling is in its final system-testing phase. He projected that up to six of the twenty provisionally listed state companies could proceed to full IPOs over the next twelve months, accelerating Egypt's privatisation agenda ahead of the IMF programme's structural benchmarks.

Read full article → Enterprise
EGX · SPACs

Enterprise asks: Are Egypt's SPACs moving faster than market oversight can keep up?

(4 Aug) Enterprise's Wednesday edition examined whether Egypt's SPAC model — operational for roughly 18 months — has outpaced regulatory oversight mechanisms. The publication noted the model has 'clearly worked' in attracting capital but that harder governance questions are now emerging, coinciding with the EGX's push toward broader capital-market deepening.

Read full article → Enterprise
Parliament · Energy · Sinai

Egypt's parliament approves four oil and gas exploration agreements across Sinai

(4 Aug) Egypt's parliament ratified four new exploration agreements covering areas in Sinai, according to Enterprise's Tuesday edition. The approvals are part of the government's strategy to diversify domestic hydrocarbon supply and reduce exposure to elevated global energy prices, which have been driven higher by the ongoing US-Iran Strait of Hormuz standoff.

Read full article → Enterprise
CBE · Monetary Policy

CBE holds all four corridor rates for third consecutive meeting; cites geopolitical risk and 14.3% June inflation

(11 Jul, confirmed Aug) The CBE MPC held the overnight deposit rate at 19%, lending at 20%, main operation and discount at 19.50%, for the third meeting in succession. The Committee cited a slight moderation in Q2 real GDP growth and a third consecutive decline in headline inflation to 14.3% in June — the lowest since before the Middle East conflict — while warning of upside inflation risks if the conflict persists.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt · Trading Economics · CBE.org.eg
CBE · Rate Path

CBE cut 100bps to current corridor in February 2026, having eased 925bps from the June 2024 peak of 27.25%

(Feb 2026, background) The CBE's February 2026 MPC meeting cut the overnight deposit rate by 100bps from 20% to 19%, the overnight lending from 21% to 20%, and both the main operation and discount from 20.5% to 19.5%. This followed a 27.25% peak after the March 2024 liberalisation. The pause since April 2026 reflects caution about elevated headline inflation and regional geopolitical uncertainty.

Read full article → SIS Egypt · CBE.org.eg
Macro · GDP

Egypt GDP growth moderated to ~5% in Q2 FY25/26 after 5.3% in Q1; CBE sees ~5% for full FY

(Jul 2026) The CBE's preliminary estimates indicate a slight moderation in real GDP growth in Q2 FY2025/26 from the 5.3% recorded in Q1, attributed to regional conflict impacts on trade and tourism. The CBE expects real GDP to average around 5% for the full fiscal year 2025/26, converging toward potential by H1 2027 as geopolitical conditions stabilise.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt / CBE · SIS Egypt
Energy · Suez · Saudi

Houthi attacks and drone strikes near Egypt raise risk on Saudi Arabia's Suez/SUMED export corridor

(3 Aug) OilPrice.com reported that Saudi Arabia is increasingly running out of alternative export routes as Houthi attacks threaten the Red Sea and drone strikes near Egypt raise risks along its remaining Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline corridor. This creates indirect fiscal exposure for Egypt as Suez Canal transit fees — a key FX earner — face pressure if traffic is re-routed.

Read full article → OilPrice.com
Macro · Inflation

Headline inflation at 14.3% in June — third consecutive decline; CBE targets 7% by Q4 2026

(Jul 2026) Annual headline inflation fell to 14.3% in June 2026, the third straight month of decline and the lowest level since before the Middle East conflict disrupted supply chains and energy prices. The CBE's inflation target remains 7% (±2pp) for Q4 2026, though the MPC warned the path faces heightened upside risks if conflict persists or fiscal pass-through exceeds expectations.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt · Trading Economics
FX · EGP

USD/EGP at 50.25 — pound broadly stable after post-liberalisation weakening; 52-week range 46.64–54.86

(5 Aug) The Egyptian pound traded at 50.25 per dollar in mid-market, broadly stable in recent sessions. The pound reached an all-time low of ~54.86 against the dollar during the March 2026 spike following fiscal pressures. The 52-week range of 46.64–54.86 reflects a volatile adjustment year following the March 2024 liberalisation that devalued the pound by ~60%.

Read full article → Investing.com · Trading Economics
IMF · EFF Programme

IMF completed fourth EFF review in March 2025; fifth review and RSF tranche timing in focus

(Background, Aug 2026) The IMF Executive Board completed Egypt's fourth review under the 46-month Extended Fund Facility and approved an arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility in March 2025. Egypt's programme remains active, with the next review focused on structural benchmarks including capital-market privatisation, exchange-rate flexibility, and fiscal consolidation amid elevated geopolitical headwinds.

Read full article → IMF.org
EGX · Performance

EGX 30 up ~59% year-on-year, within 1% of all-time high 54,978 set May 11 2026

(5 Aug) The EGX 30 traded at 54,434 intraday on 5 August, having gained roughly 59% over the past 12 months according to TradingView data, driven by foreign portfolio inflows, privatisation IPO listings, and real returns above inflation. The index set its all-time high of 54,978 on 11 May 2026 and remains supported by a 'Strong Buy' on all timeframes on technical indicators.

Read full article → Investing.com · TradingView
Macro · Global Headwinds

World Bank: Middle East conflict to cut global growth to 2.5% in 2026; Egypt among MENA economies most exposed

(Jul 2026) The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects projects global growth will slow to 2.5% in 2026 as Middle East energy disruptions drive price increases. The MENA region is identified as the worst affected region. For Egypt, sustained Suez Canal disruption, elevated energy import costs, and weaker remittance inflows from Gulf economies remain key downside risks to the fiscal and growth outlook.

Read full article → World Bank