Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Friday, 31 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Global risk appetite rebounded sharply on Thursday as Microsoft's 16% surge drove a Nasdaq and S&P 500 recovery, but markets remain on edge: a divided Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% (three hawks dissenting), US–Iran hostilities pushed Brent to ~$90, and Egypt's EGX30 slid 0.4% on heavy local selling, while gold held near $4,086 as Japan was suspected of yen-support intervention.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,437.64+1.66%Dow Jones52,208.06+1.19%Nasdaq Composite25,122.18+2.78%FTSE 10010,900.22+0.27%DAX25,520.19+0.22%CAC 408,420.04-0.46%Gold$4,086Brent$89.95USD/EGP51.10+0.95%CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,437.64+1.66%Dow Jones52,208.06+1.19%Nasdaq Composite25,122.18+2.78%FTSE 10010,900.22+0.27%DAX25,520.19+0.22%CAC 408,420.04-0.46%Gold$4,086Brent$89.95USD/EGP51.10+0.95%CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
53,442
-0.35%
S&P 500
7,437.64
+1.66%
Gold
$4,086
USD / EGP
51.10
+0.95%
Brent
$89.95
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
53,442
▲ +27.8% YTD; +355% 5y
8,34620,86733,38945,91158,432 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-072026-05-112026-07-30 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
51.10
▲ +225% 5y
12.8723.1333.4043.6753.93 2021-122022-122023-122024-032025-012026-07-31 USD / EGP
CBE Overnight Deposit Rate · %
19.00%
— -825bps from Apr 2025 peak cycle; unchanged since Apr 2, 2026
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 2021-122022-122023-122024-042025-042026-022026-04-02 CBE Overnight Deposit Rate
S&P 500 · index
7,437.64
▲ +56% 5y
3,5514,5955,6386,6817,725 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-07-30 S&P 500
Fed Funds Target · %
3.50–3.75% (midpoint 3.625%)
— Unchanged 5th consecutive meeting; held Jul 29, 2026
-0.3%1.2%2.8%4.3%5.8% 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-07-29 Fed Funds Target
Gold · $/oz
$4,086
▼ +126% 5y; -27% from Jan 29, 2026 ATH of $5,597
1,5032,6023,7024,8015,900 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-01-292026-07-31 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Jul 30 close; Microsoft +16% drove tech rally post-earnings7,437.64+1.66%
Dow Jones Jul 30 close; +613.92 pts rebound from Wed's 1,153-pt plunge52,208.06+1.19%
Nasdaq Composite Jul 30 close; ended 6-day losing streak25,122.18+2.78%
FTSE 100 Jul 29 close (Yahoo Finance delayed)10,900.22+0.27%
DAX Jul 29 close25,520.19+0.22%
CAC 40 Jul 29 close8,420.04-0.46%
Nikkei 225 Jul 29 close; yen strength on suspected BoJ intervention61,434.19-1.49%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 Jul 30 close; +27.8% YTD; local investors sole net sellers; turnover EGP 11.9bn53,442-0.35%
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit — Unchanged — 3rd consecutive hold; last cut Feb 6, 2026 (100bps).
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending — Unchanged — ceiling of CBE corridor.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit19.00%Unchanged — 3rd consecutive hold; last cut Feb 6, 2026 (100bps)
Overnight lending20.00%Unchanged — ceiling of CBE corridor
Main operation19.50%Unchanged
Discount rate19.50%Unchanged
Treasury bills
91-day~26.5%Indicative — last CBE auction page updated Jul 16, 2026; exact Jul 31 print not yet available
182-day~27.0%Indicative — same basis
273-day~26.8%Indicative — same basis
364-day~25.5%Indicative (Reuters Jan 2026 reference: 23.5% for 12m; market has widened since oil shock)
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.65%
1-year UST4.04%
2-year UST4.23%
3-year UST4.30%
5-year UST4.38%
10-year UST4.68%
30-year UST5.21%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.19%
United Kingdom
BoE Bank Rate Held at Jul 30, 2026 MPC meeting; voted 6-33.75%
SONIA overnight Trading Economics last available Dec 2025 print; approximates current rate minus ~2bps of Bank Rate~3.73%
10-year Gilt Jul 30, 2026 (Trading Economics); 2-month high; BoE hawkish hold + oil inflation fears5.04%
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP51.10+0.95%
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD Trading Economics Jul 31; supported by weaker USD and Fed hold; ATH $5,597 on Jan 29, 2026▼ $4,086
Brent Crude Jul 30 close (Forbes); -11% from April peak of $120.88; US-Iran war monthly gain ~+21%▼ $89.95
WTI Crude Trading Economics Jul 30; +~20% for the month on Hormuz/Red Sea supply disruptions▼ $83.87
05

Global Economy

US · Fed Hold

Divided FOMC holds rates at 3.50–3.75% for fifth straight meeting as three hawks push for hike

(29 Jul) The Federal Reserve left its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on July 29, with a 9-3 vote — the highest dissent count since September 2016 — as regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan all preferred a 25bps increase to fight persistent above-target inflation. Chair Kevin Warsh, in his second meeting, signalled no forward guidance; markets now price a ~42% chance of a September hold, with the next decision due Sep 15–16. Warsh is expected to speak at Jackson Hole Aug 27–29.

Read full article → CNBC · Fox Business · Washington Post · Advisor Perspectives
Energy · US–Iran War

US launches fresh wave of strikes on Iran; Egypt's Damietta port hit by drone for first time; Brent at $90

(30 Jul) US Central Command launched a heavy round of strikes against Iranian targets on July 29–30, drawing retaliatory threats from the IRGC. CNN reported that two ships were struck by a drone at Egypt's Port of Damietta — the first time in the conflict Egypt was directly hit. Brent crude pulled back to ~$90/bbl on Jul 30 after surging nearly 8% the prior session, with the benchmark on track for a ~21% monthly gain. Saudi Arabia proposed a 14-nation maritime coalition to protect shipping lanes as Bab al-Mandeb transits have fallen ~20%.

Read full article → CNN · Bloomberg · CNBC · Trading Economics
US · Earnings · Tech

Microsoft surges 16% adding $450bn in value; Amazon cloud accelerates; markets rebound sharply

(30 Jul) Microsoft shares jumped 16% on July 30 — the largest single-day market cap addition ever — after Azure cloud revenue posted its fastest growth since 2022 and capex guidance did not overshoot, alleviating AI-spending fears. The Nasdaq Composite gained 2.78% to 25,122, ending a six-day losing streak, and the S&P 500 rose 1.7% to 7,437.64. Amazon also jumped after hours on accelerating cloud growth. Apple slipped on weak China sales.

Read full article → Bloomberg · CNBC
UK · BoE Hold

Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75% in 6-3 vote as oil-driven inflation risks persist

(30 Jul) The Bank of England's MPC voted 6-3 to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75% at its July 30 meeting, with three members preferring a cut. The BoE warned that higher energy prices from the US-Iran conflict are likely to push UK inflation higher later in 2026, tilting risks to the upside. The UK 10-year gilt yield held above 5.04%, near a two-month high, as markets processed the hawkish hold alongside renewed US airstrikes on Iran.

Read full article → Trading Economics · Enhiyi Strategic
Japan · FX Intervention

Yen surges on suspected Japanese government intervention; USD/JPY at 40-year high area then retreats

(31 Jul) Gold traded around $4,100/oz on Friday, also drawing support from a sharp US dollar decline as Japan was suspected to have intervened in currency markets to strengthen the yen. The Japanese yen's appreciation rippled through global assets, lifting gold and weighing on export-sensitive Asian equities; the Nikkei had already fallen 1.49% on July 29.

Read full article → Trading Economics · InvestingLive
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Real GDP growth
5.3%
H1 FY26 (Jul–Dec 2025)
Headline inflation (CAPMAS)
12.2%
-0.8pp m/m
Urban CPI (CBE)
14.3%
-0.3pp m/m
Net FX Reserves
$55.07bn
+$1.94bn m/m
CBE Policy Rate (deposit)
19.00%
0bps — 3rd consecutive hold
Primary balance / debt
Surplus 3.5% GDP
Debt 82.5% GDP end-FY25
IMF · EFF

IMF completes 5th & 6th EFF reviews, disburses ~$2bn; program extended to Dec 2026

(26 Feb) The IMF Executive Board completed the combined fifth and sixth reviews of Egypt's EFF programme, enabling an immediate draw of approximately $2.0bn (SDR 1,465.44mn) under the EFF and $273mn under the RSF, bringing total purchases to ~$5.21bn. Egypt's 46-month EFF arrangement, approved Dec 2022, was extended through December 15, 2026. The IMF noted GDP growth of 4.4% in FY2024/25 and inflation declining to 11.9% in January 2026.

Read full article → IMF
IMF · WEO

IMF Jul 2026 WEO upgrades Egypt growth to 4.6%; global inflation back on the rise on oil shock

(Jul 2026) The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projected Egypt's GDP growth at 4.6% in 2026, up from 4.4% in 2025, as non-oil manufacturing, tourism and communications offset Suez Canal and extractive-sector weakness. Globally, headline inflation is projected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, driven by a 32% spike in crude oil prices. The IMF attributed some market relief to a ceasefire memorandum between the US and Iran but noted downside risks remain.

Read full article → Ahram Online
CBE · MPC

CBE holds all four corridor rates for third consecutive meeting at July 9 session

(9 Jul) The CBE's Monetary Policy Committee kept the overnight deposit rate at 19%, overnight lending at 20%, and both the main operation and discount rates at 19.5% — the third straight hold, pausing a near-year-long easing cycle. The MPC said inflation is expected to remain above the 7% (±2pp) Q4-2026 target before easing gradually in H1-2027. Geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran war and elevated global energy prices were cited as upside inflation risks.

Read full article → Egypt Today · Trading Economics · Daily News Egypt
Egypt · Inflation

Annual headline inflation eases to 12.2% in June 2026, third consecutive monthly decline

(10 Jul) CAPMAS reported annual headline inflation fell to 12.2% in June from 13.0% in May and 14.4% in June 2025, the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest since February. The CBE simultaneously reported urban CPI at 14.3% and core inflation at 14.3% year-on-year in June, up from 13.8% in May. Food and beverages moderated sharply to 5.4% from 7.6%, while housing and utility inflation accelerated to 41.2%.

Read full article → Ahram Online · Zawya · CBE
Egypt · FX Reserves

Egypt net international reserves rise $1.94bn to $55.07bn at end-June 2026

(Jul 2026) Egypt's net international reserves increased by approximately $1.94 billion to reach $55.07 billion at the end of June 2026, a continuation of the steady rebuilding from the FX crisis lows. The World Bank had noted official FX reserves of $67.5bn (including other FCA) as of end-February 2026, before portfolio outflows estimated at $6.1bn in the first half of March 2026 due to Middle East conflict escalation.

Read full article → Ahram Online · World Bank
EGX · Market

EGX30 slips 0.35% on July 30 on heavy local selling; turnover 25.5% above 90-day average

(30 Jul) Egypt's EGX30 fell 0.35% to 53,442.2 points on Thursday, with turnover of EGP 11.9bn — 25.5% above the 90-day average — as local investors were the sole net sellers. Foreign and Arab investors were also net sellers. Top gainers: AMOC (+7.0%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (+2.4%), ADIB (+1.4%). Top losers: Telecom Egypt (-3.0%), Beltone Holding (-2.6%), Heliopolis Housing (-2.5%). The index remains up 27.8% YTD.

Read full article → Enterprise AM · Amwal Al Ghad
Egypt · Energy · Geopolitics

Drone attack strikes two ships at Egypt's Port of Damietta LNG hub — first direct hit of US-Iran war

(30 Jul) CNN and CNBC reported that two ships were struck by a drone attack at the Port of Damietta on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, the site of a major liquefied natural gas hub, marking the first time Egypt was directly targeted in the US-Iran conflict. No group has claimed responsibility. The attack added to market concern over widening conflict risk, coming as Bab al-Mandeb transits fell ~20% and US Central Command redirected 24 commercial vessels in the region.

Read full article → CNN · CNBC
Egypt · Real Estate

Proposed Real Estate Developers Federation aims to rank firms by project capacity; smaller players may be excluded

(30 Jul) Enterprise reported that a proposed Real Estate Developers Federation is in discussion, with the aim of weeding out undercapitalized players by ranking firms based on their project delivery capacity. The lead story for July 30's Enterprise AM edition, insiders warned the ranking system could permanently entrench industry giants unless smaller but serious newcomers have a clear and defined path to scale up. The proposal is being reviewed by sector stakeholders.

Read full article → Enterprise AM
Egypt · Fiscal

Egypt's primary surplus reached 3.5% of GDP in FY25; public debt falls to 82.5% of GDP

(World Bank Jul 2026) The World Bank confirmed Egypt's primary surplus reached 3.5% of GDP in FY25, supported by tax revenue gains and spending restraint, with central government debt declining to 82.5% of GDP from 90.1% at end-FY24. However, interest payments remain very high at 10.6% of GDP, significantly constraining fiscal space for development spending. The structural improvement is underpinned by the IMF EFF program conditions.

Read full article → World Bank
Egypt · Suez Canal

Suez Canal Economic Zone posts record revenue in FY2025-2026; canal traffic partially recovering

(16 Jul) The Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) posted record revenue in FY2025-2026, according to Ports Europe. Canal transit revenues had fallen to an estimated $5.5–6.0bn in FY2024/25 from a record $9.4bn in FY2022/23, due to Houthi attacks diverting shipping to the Cape of Good Hope. A partial recovery toward $6–7bn was forecast for FY2025/26 as some routes normalised, though renewed US-Iran conflict risk in July has increased Bab al-Mandeb disruption.

Read full article → Ports Europe · NewsNow
Egypt · EGX · IPO

Four additional state-owned companies eyeing EGX listing in July 2026

(30 Jul) Enterprise AM noted that four more state-owned companies are looking to list on the Egyptian Exchange in July 2026, as the government continues its privatisation and public offering pipeline. No further details on names or sector were disclosed in the available snippet. The push is part of Egypt's ongoing commitment to expand private-sector involvement in the economy under its IMF-backed reform programme.

Read full article → Enterprise AM
Egypt · Banking · BofA

Bank of America upgrades Egypt to top emerging-markets screen on stronger earnings and valuations

(29 Jun) Bank of America moved Egypt to the top of its emerging-markets equity screen, citing stronger corporate earnings momentum and attractive valuations. The upgrade, reported by Investing.com, follows the EGX30's 55%+ annual gain and improvement in Egypt's macro fundamentals. BofA's upgrade reflects confidence in Egypt's post-devaluation earnings recovery and continued foreign investor interest in domestic debt and equity markets.

Read full article → Investing.com