Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Markets on FOMC decision-day are bifurcated: Dow and S&P hold gains on strong earnings while chipmakers extend their rout, oil surges 4%+ on fresh Middle East fighting, and gold slides toward $4,000 as a hawkish Fed re-price lifts the dollar.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,428.78+0.21%Dow Jones52,747.32+1.03%Nasdaq Composite24,876.91-0.22%FTSE 10010,846+0.59%DAX25,487+0.49%CAC 408,406.06+0.40%Gold$4,020Brent~$88USD/EGP50.63-0.43%EUR/USD~1.1020n/dCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,428.78+0.21%Dow Jones52,747.32+1.03%Nasdaq Composite24,876.91-0.22%FTSE 10010,846+0.59%DAX25,487+0.49%CAC 408,406.06+0.40%Gold$4,020Brent~$88USD/EGP50.63-0.43%EUR/USD~1.1020n/dCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
53,418
n/d
S&P 500
7,428.78
+0.21%
Gold
$4,020
USD / EGP
50.63
-0.43%
Brent
~$88
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
53,418
▲ +366% 5y
7,96820,59133,21545,83858,461 20212022202320242025-H12026-05-11 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
50.63
▲ +223% 5y
12.6723.4734.2745.0855.88 2021202220232024-Mar20252026-Mar USD / EGP
CBE Policy Rate (O/N Deposit) · %
19.00%
▼ -825bps since Apr 2025
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 2021202320242025-Apr2026-Feb2026-Jul-09 CBE Policy Rate (O/N Deposit)
S&P 500 · index
7,429
▲ +56% 5y
3,5534,5945,6356,6757,716 202120222023202420252026-07-28 S&P 500
Fed Funds Target · %
3.50–3.75%
— on hold since Dec 2025
-0.3%1.2%2.8%4.3%5.8% 20212022202320242025-Dec2026-Jun Fed Funds Target
Gold · $/oz
$4,020
▼ +120% 5y (ATH $5,602 Jan 2026)
1,5222,6173,7134,8095,904 20212022202320242026-Jan-292026-07-29 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Jul 28 close; CFD 7,425 Jul 29 pre-decision7,428.78+0.21%
Dow Jones Jul 28 close; Sherwin-Williams +8% led gains52,747.32+1.03%
Nasdaq Composite Jul 28 close; chip sell-off dragged index24,876.91-0.22%
FTSE 100 Jul 28; Unilever +8% a top gainer10,846+0.59%
DAX Jul 2825,487+0.49%
CAC 40 Jul 288,406.06+0.40%
Nikkei 225 Jul 28; chip sector rout led by South Korea62,364-3.95%
Hang Seng Jul 28; tech and industrials supported25,310+0.41%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 Jul 29 live print, Investing.com; +57.9% YoY53,418n/d
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit — Unchanged at Jul 9 MPC; cumulative -825bps since Apr 2025.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending — Unchanged at Jul 9 MPC.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit19.00%Unchanged at Jul 9 MPC; cumulative -825bps since Apr 2025
Overnight lending20.00%Unchanged at Jul 9 MPC
Main operation (7-day)19.50%Unchanged at Jul 9 MPC
Discount rate19.50%Unchanged at Jul 9 MPC
Treasury bills
91-day~26.5%
182-day~26.2%Approximate; last available auction
273-day~26.0%Approximate; last available auction
364-day~25.8%Approximate; last available auction
Treasury bonds
3-year~25.5%Indicative secondary market yield
5-year~25.2%Indicative secondary market yield
10-year~24.8%Indicative secondary market yield
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.64%
1-year UST4.09%
2-year UST4.26%
3-year UST4.31%
5-year UST4.35%
10-year UST4.61%
30-year UST5.09%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.19%
United Kingdom
BoE Bank Rate Latest published rate, Trading Economics / BoE3.75%
SONIA overnight Dec 2025 last published, Trading Economics / BoE3.73%
10-year Gilt Jul 21 2026, sofrrate.com (UK nominal par gilt yield)5.02%
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP50.63-0.43%
EUR / EGP~55.80n/d
GBP / EGP~65.30n/d
SAR / EGP~13.50n/d
EUR / USD~1.1020n/d
GBP / USD~1.2900n/d
USD / JPY~148.50n/d
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD Jul 29 spot, IFCM; down ~1% on firmer USD and Fed rate-hike tail risk; ATH $5,602 Jan 29 2026▼ $4,020
Brent Crude Jul 29 surging +4% after fresh Middle East fighting; Iran-backed militias struck Saudi oil facilities for 2nd day (Bloomberg Jul 29)▲ ~$88
WTI Crude Jul 29 intraday; settled ~$79 on Jul 28 after 3-day 16% collapse; sharply rebounding on Middle East re-escalation▲ ~$83
Copper (indicative)— n/v
05

Global Economy

Energy · Middle East

Brent surges 4%+ as fresh Middle East fighting reignites supply fears

(29 Jul) Oil surged after fighting erupted again in the Middle East, casting doubt on diplomatic efforts and threatening energy flow disruptions. Brent climbed more than 4% to near $88 a barrel, partially reversing a 16% three-session decline — its steepest since 2020. Iran-backed militias in Iraq launched drones at Saudi oil facilities for a second consecutive day, while the US military said it intercepted an Iranian attack on US troops across the region.

Read full article → Bloomberg · Trading Economics
US · Fed

FOMC meeting concludes today; market overwhelmingly expects rates held at 3.50–3.75%

(29 Jul) The Federal Open Market Committee's July 28–29 meeting wraps up with a 2pm ET rate decision and 2:30pm press conference from Chair Kevin Warsh. Economists polled by FactSet unanimously expect the fifth consecutive hold at 3.50–3.75%, though CME futures price in a roughly one-in-three chance of a hike — an unusually high degree of uncertainty. The Fed has been on hold since December 2025, when it cut rates from 3.75% to 3.50%.

Read full article → CBS News · Motley Fool · Cambridge Currencies
US · Equities

Dow jumps 537 points on earnings rotation; chip sell-off deepens on AI demand concerns

(28 Jul) US equities were mixed as investors rotated out of semiconductors into consumer and industrial names. The Dow climbed 537 points (+1.03%) to 52,747 while the Nasdaq fell 0.22% as Micron slumped 8.8%, AMD lost 8.1%, and SNDK tumbled 14.2% on AI circular-investment fears. Sherwin-Williams rose 8% and Coca-Cola gained 5% on earnings beats to lead the Dow.

Read full article → CNBC · Trading Economics
Asia · Chips

South Korean Kospi triggers circuit breaker for 9th time in 2026 as memory chip rout deepens

(28 Jul) Asian markets fell sharply on Tuesday, led by a semiconductor rout centred on South Korean memory makers. The Kospi plunged as much as 10.9%, triggering its ninth circuit breaker of 2026, with SK Hynix down ~12% and Samsung down ~13%. Japan's Nikkei fell 3.95% to 62,364 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng bucked the trend, rising 0.41% supported by technology and industrial stocks.

Read full article → CNBC · Investrade
Gold · Macro

Gold slides toward $4,000 as dollar firms and Fed hike tail risk returns

(28–29 Jul) Gold fell about 1% to ~$4,020/oz as a firmer US dollar — hovering near a four-week high — and growing Fed rate-hike bets weighed on the metal. Traders are pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of a rate hike at Wednesday's meeting and an ~80% probability of a hike in September. The metal hit an all-time high of $5,602 on January 29, 2026 before retreating.

Read full article → Trading Economics · CNBC · IFCM
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Real GDP growth
5.2%
FY2025/26 first 3 quarters
Headline inflation (CPI)
~14.8%
Jun 2026 CBE release (Jul 9)
Net Int'l Reserves
$55.07bn
End-Jun 2026 (provisional)
CBE policy rate (O/N deposit)
19.00%
-825bps since Apr 2025
Primary fiscal balance
4.8% of GDP surplus
FY2025/26 target
Remittances (Egyptians abroad)
$43.1bn
11 months to May 2026
IMF · 7th Review

IMF staff reaches staff-level agreement on Egypt's 7th EFF review and 2nd RSF review

(29 Jun) The IMF confirmed a staff-level agreement on Egypt's seventh review under the Extended Fund Facility and second review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. Real GDP growth reached 5% in Q3 and 5.2% for the first three fiscal quarters. Fiscal performance was strong — both primary balance and tax revenue targets were exceeded by end-March 2026, with the primary surplus projected to rise from 4.8% of GDP in FY2025/26 to 5% in FY2026/27.

Read full article → IMF
CBE · MPC

MPC holds all key policy rates unchanged at July 9 meeting

(9 Jul) Egypt's Monetary Policy Committee kept the overnight deposit rate at 19.00%, overnight lending at 20.00%, and both the main operation and discount rates at 19.50%. The hold follows cumulative cuts of 825 basis points between April 2025 and February 2026. CBE has adopted a wait-and-see approach to ensure policy remains sufficiently restrictive to anchor inflation expectations while maintaining a positive real rate margin.

Read full article → CBE
CBE · Reserves

Egypt's net international reserves hit $55.07bn at end-June 2026

(8 Jul) The Central Bank of Egypt reported provisional net international reserves of $55,072.3 million at the end of June 2026, up sharply from pre-war levels. The strong reserve buffer is supported by remittance inflows, IMF disbursements, and the Ras El-Hekma UAE land deal proceeds, providing greater resilience to external shocks.

Read full article → CBE
CBE · Remittances

Remittances from Egyptians abroad record $43.1bn over eleven months to May 2026

(9 Jul) The CBE announced that remittances from Egyptians working abroad reached a record $43.1 billion over the eleven months to May 2026, surpassing the prior full-year record. Strong remittance flows continue to underpin Egypt's external balance and foreign currency liquidity.

Read full article → CBE
CBE · Balance of Payments

CBE publishes BoP performance for July–March FY2025/26

(12 Jul) The Central Bank of Egypt released the balance of payments performance data for July–March FY2025/26. The report covers the current account, capital flows, and reserve movements. Exchange rate flexibility and portfolio inflows — supported by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement — helped reverse most of the EGP depreciation seen during peak conflict.

Read full article → CBE
IMF · Growth Upgrade

IMF upgrades Egypt's 2026 growth forecast to 4.6% in July WEO Update

(Jul 2026) The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update raised Egypt's 2026 growth projection to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in 2025. Egypt is one of the few MENA economies projected to expand, as the broader region faces contraction due to war spillovers. IMF cited timely policy actions including fuel price adjustments and energy rationalisation.

Read full article → Egypt Daily News · Ahram Online
EGX · Privatisation

EGX accelerates state-asset listing programme with six SOE IPOs finalised

(Apr 2026) EGX Vice Chairman Mohamed Sabry finalised terms for the temporary listing of six state-owned companies. Four join the main market — Sinai Manganese, Spring Manufacturing (Yayat), Egyptian Contracting (El Abd), and El Nasr Housing — while two join the SME segment. The petroleum sector is identified as the next IPO frontier, aimed at diversifying EGX's sectoral mix and attracting foreign capital.

Read full article → African Markets
Egypt · Fiscal Debt

Central government debt falls to 82.5% of GDP at end-FY25; interest burden remains high

(Jul 2026) World Bank data shows central government debt declined to 82.5% of GDP at end-FY25 (from 90.1% at end-FY24), supported by the primary surplus of 3.5% of GDP and tax revenue gains. However, interest payments at 10.6% of GDP remain among the world's highest relative to revenue, limiting fiscal space. External debt stands at approximately $169 billion (~40% of GDP) with $27 billion in service due in 2026.

Read full article → World Bank · Atlantic Council
Egypt · Inflation / CBE Outlook

CBE 1Q 2026 report revises inflation forecast sharply higher to 16–17% average for 2026

(May 2026) The CBE's Q1 2026 Monetary Policy Report revised its headline inflation forecast to an average of 16–17% for 2026 — well above the prior 11% projection — citing the regional conflict energy shock. Single-digit inflation is not expected before H2 2027. GDP growth was trimmed to 4.9% for FY2025/26 (from 5.1%), with the Suez Canal recovery timeline pushed to Q1 2027.

Read full article → Enterprise AM
Egypt · Energy / Suez

Suez Canal Economic Zone posts record revenue in FY2025–2026

(16 Jul) Ports Europe reported that the Suez Canal Economic Zone posted record revenue for FY2025–2026 despite the regional conflict's impact on canal transit volumes. The record reflects diversification of the Zone's industrial and logistics activities beyond canal transit fees. The CBE has pushed back its full Suez Canal traffic recovery timeline to Q1 2027.

Read full article → NewsNow / Ports Europe · Enterprise AM
Egypt · Regional Risk

IMF: War impact on Egypt 'relatively contained' but portfolio outflows hit $6.1bn in first half of March

(29 Jun) The IMF's 7th review noted the impact of the Middle East war on Egypt has remained relatively contained, supported by timely policy actions. However, the conflict triggered portfolio outflows estimated at $6.1 billion in the first half of March 2026. The return of portfolio inflows — supported by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement — helped reverse most of the EGP depreciation seen at peak tension.

Read full article → IMF