Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Monday, 27 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Risk-on Monday as US and Iran paused mutual strikes over the weekend, crashing oil ~5% and lifting Asian equities, gold, and US futures ahead of the pivotal Jul 28-29 FOMC decision.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,411.98+0.05%Dow Jones51,947.25+0.46%Nasdaq Composite24,975.82-0.64%FTSE 10010,641.44-0.73%DAX24,844.82-1.23%CAC 408,299.09-1.64%Gold$4,091Brent$90.95USD/EGP51.34flatEUR/USDn/vCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,411.98+0.05%Dow Jones51,947.25+0.46%Nasdaq Composite24,975.82-0.64%FTSE 10010,641.44-0.73%DAX24,844.82-1.23%CAC 408,299.09-1.64%Gold$4,091Brent$90.95USD/EGP51.34flatEUR/USDn/vCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
53,990
n/a — session in progress
S&P 500
7,411.98
+0.05%
Gold
$4,091
USD / EGP
51.34
flat
Brent
$90.95
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
53,990
▲ +352% 5y
8,58620,77832,97045,16157,353 20212022202320242025-072026-022026-07-27 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
51.34
▲ +227% 5y
12.7223.5134.3045.0955.88 2021202220232024-032025-012026-032026-07-27 USD / EGP
CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit) · %
19.00%
▼ -825bps since Apr 2025
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 20212022-122023-122024-032025-042026-022026-07-27 CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit)
S&P 500 · index
7,412 (Jul 24 close); ~7,454 (Jul 27 CFD)
▲ +56% 5y
3,5544,5905,6266,6627,698 20212022202320242025-072026-012026-07-24 S&P 500
Fed Funds Target · %
3.50–3.75%
— Unchanged; FOMC meets Jul 28-29
-0.2%1.4%2.9%4.4%5.9% 20212022-122023-122024-122025-122026-07-27 Fed Funds Target
Gold · $/oz
$4,091
▲ ATH $5,602 (Jan 29); -27% from ATH
1,5222,6173,7134,8095,904 20212022202320242026-01-292026-07-27 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Jul 24 close; CFD ~7,454 on Jul 277,411.98+0.05%
Dow Jones Jul 24 close; Apple +3.5% led gains51,947.25+0.46%
Nasdaq Composite Jul 24 close; chip stocks weighed24,975.82-0.64%
FTSE 100 Jul 24 close; up on Jul 27 open on oil drop10,641.44-0.73%
DAX Jul 24 close24,844.82-1.23%
CAC 40 Jul 24 close8,299.09-1.64%
Nikkei 225 Jul 27 early session; oil -5% boost64,760+0.23%
Hang Seng Jul 27 live; Iran pause lifted sentiment25,050+0.79%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 Jul 27 live intraday; range 53,186–54,06553,990n/a — session in progress
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit — Unchanged at 9 Jul MPC; third consecutive hold in 2026.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending — Unchanged at 9 Jul MPC.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit19.00%Unchanged at 9 Jul MPC; third consecutive hold in 2026
Overnight lending20.00%Unchanged at 9 Jul MPC
Main operation19.50%Unchanged at 9 Jul MPC
Discount / credit19.50%Unchanged at 9 Jul MPC; next MPC 20 Aug
Treasury bills
91-dayn/v
182-dayn/v
273-dayn/v
364-dayn/v
Treasury bonds
3-yearn/v
5-yearn/v
10-yearn/v
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.64%
1-year UST4.14%
2-year UST4.33%
3-year UST4.36%
5-year UST4.43%
10-year UST4.69%
30-year UST5.16%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.19%
United States (as of Jul 24 close — StreetStats / NY Fed)
Fed funds target Unchanged; FOMC decision due Jul 293.50–3.75%
SOFR overnight (last posted Jul 23) NY Fed / FRED; effective fed funds rate3.63%
3-month UST bill3.90%
1-year UST4.12%
2-year UST4.34%
3-year USTn/v
5-year UST4.44%
10-year UST4.69%
30-year UST5.16%
Euro Area (as of Jul 26 — rateprobability.com / ECB)
ECB deposit facility Held at Jul meeting; first hike in 3 yrs was Jun 20262.25%
ECB main refinancing rate2.40%
ECB marginal lending facility2.65%
€STR (last Jul 26) rateprobability.com2.185%
EURIBOR 3Mn/v
EURIBOR 6Mn/v
EURIBOR 12Mn/v
10-year Bund yieldn/v
United Kingdom (prior business day Jul 24)
BoE Bank Raten/v
SONIA overnightn/v
10-year Gilt yieldn/v
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP51.34flat
EUR / EGPn/v
GBP / EGPn/v
SAR / EGPn/v
EUR / USDn/v
GBP / USDn/v
USD / JPYn/v
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD Trading Economics Jul 27; up +0.95% on Iran pause; ATH $5,602 (Jan 29 2026)▲ $4,091
Brent Crude Trading Economics Jul 26 close; down ~7.6% as US-Iran paused strikes over weekend▼ $90.95
WTI Crude Approx Jul 27; down ~5% on Iran ceasefire pause; 52-week range $54.98–$117.63▼ ~$87
Copper (indicative)— n/v
05

Global Economy

Geopolitics · US-Iran

US and Iran pause mutual strikes; oil craters 5-7% on ceasefire hopes

(27 Jul) The US suspended nearly two weeks of strikes on Iran beginning late Friday without an official announcement, while Tehran said it had ended its retaliatory strikes and held discussions with Oman about the Strait of Hormuz. Brent fell to ~$91/bbl on Jul 26 (down ~7.6% in one session) and WTI dropped ~5%, while Asian equity markets and gold climbed on risk-on sentiment. Pakistan, with Chinese backing, has been facilitating the pause.

Read full article → Trading Economics · CNBC · oilprice.com
US · Fed / FOMC

FOMC meeting begins Jul 28; Fed widely expected to hold at 3.50–3.75% as inflation risk from Iran conflict lingers

(25 Jul) The Federal Open Market Committee convenes Jul 28–29 for its rate decision. Markets price an ~85.6% probability the Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%, per CME FedWatch. Fed chair Kevin Warsh has characterised the June meeting as 'a good family fight' on rates. Investors are also watching for any shift in guidance given oil-driven inflation risk from the Middle East conflict.

Read full article → CNBC · LiteFinance · StreetStats
US · Equities

Wall St closes mixed Friday; Nasdaq drops 0.64% on chip selloff as Apple buoys Dow

(24 Jul) The S&P 500 added just 0.05% to 7,411.98 while the Nasdaq fell 0.64% to 24,975.82, dragged by semiconductor names. The Dow gained 0.46% to 51,947.25, lifted by Apple (+3.5%), Salesforce (+4.05%), and IBM (+3.61%). All three major indices posted weekly losses; Nasdaq shed ~2% over five sessions. US futures jumped on Jul 27 open as oil slumped on the Iran ceasefire pause.

Read full article → CNBC · Yahoo Finance · Trading Economics
ECB · Rates

ECB holds deposit rate at 2.25% at July meeting; September hike ~70% priced in

(23 Jul) The European Central Bank left all key rates unchanged at its July meeting following June's 25bp hike — the first in three years — driven by energy-price inflation from the Iran conflict. The ECB gave no forward guidance. Markets now assign roughly 70% odds of a September hike as the oil shock has outweighed dovish signals from Sintra. The deposit rate stands at 2.25%, MRO at 2.40%, MLF at 2.65%.

Read full article → IndexBox · Trading Economics · rateprobability.com
Energy · Middle East

Dual Hormuz-Bab el-Mandeb disruption tightening global oil flows before weekend pause

(24 Jul) Prior to the weekend ceasefire pause, US Central Command had conducted 13 consecutive nights of strikes on Iran targeting military and maritime infrastructure. Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and Iranian mining of the Strait of Hormuz had sent Brent briefly above $100/bbl — its highest in two months. Asian buyers began seeking alternative supply routes. The weekend pause triggered a sharp reversal.

Read full article → oilprice.com · Trading Economics · Forbes Advisor
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Headline CPI (urban annual)
14.3%
-0.3pp m/m
Real GDP growth
4.6%
+0.2pp vs 2025
Net FX Reserves (NIR)
$55.07bn
+$3.62bn H1 2026
CBE Overnight Deposit Rate
19.00%
Unchanged
Remittances (Jul–May FY25/26)
$43.1bn
+31.2% y/y
Suez Canal receipts (Jul–Mar FY25/26)
$3.2bn
+22.1% y/y
CBE · Policy

CBE holds all four policy rates for third consecutive meeting in 2026

(9 Jul) The MPC left the overnight deposit rate at 19%, overnight lending at 20%, main operation and discount rates both at 19.5%. The committee cited persistent geopolitical risks and a Q1 GDP slowdown as factors. Goldman Sachs expects rates on hold through year-end. Next MPC scheduled for 20 August.

Read full article → Egypt Today · FocusEconomics
CBE · CPI

Egypt annual inflation eases to 14.3% in June — three-month low

(9 Jul) Urban headline CPI fell to 14.3% y/y in June from 14.6% in May, beating market expectations of 15.1%. Monthly CPI fell 0.4% (first monthly decline since Jul 2025), with food & beverages moderating sharply to 5.4% from 7.6%. Housing and utilities accelerated to 41.2% on higher electricity costs. CBE still expects inflation to pick up in Q3 on base effects and fiscal adjustments.

Read full article → CBE · Trading Economics
CBE · Reserves

Egypt NIR hits record $55.07bn at end-June 2026

(8 Jul / reported 18 Jul) Net international reserves rose by ~$3.62bn during H1 2026, reaching a record $55.072bn in June 2026 from $51.452bn at end-Dec 2025. The sharp $3.9bn single-month jump in June was primarily driven by foreign currency inflows rather than valuation effects. The CBE says stronger banking-sector net foreign assets gave it flexibility to accumulate reserves without FX market pressure.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt · CBE
CBE · Remittances

Egyptian expat remittances surge 31.2% to $43.1bn in 11 months of FY 25/26

(9 Jul) The CBE reported remittances hit $43.1bn in Jul–May FY2025/26, up 31.2% on the $32.8bn in the same period of the prior year. The trend has been driven by the March 2024 exchange-rate reform, which channelled informal transfers into the banking system. On a monthly basis, February 2026 saw a 25.7% surge to $3.8bn.

Read full article → CBE
CBE · BoP

Egypt BoP deficit narrows to $1.8bn in Jul–Mar FY25/26; Suez receipts up 22%

(12 Jul) The overall BoP deficit narrowed 2.9% to $1.8bn in the first nine months of FY2025/26. Tourism revenues rose 14.9% to $14.4bn, remittances surged 32% to $34.9bn, and Suez Canal receipts climbed 22.1% to $3.2bn. Net FDI rose to $13bn from $9.8bn. However, portfolio investments recorded a net outflow of $4.4bn amid regional geopolitical tensions.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt
IMF · WEO

IMF upgrades Egypt 2026 growth to 4.6% as MENA region contracts

(Jul 2026) The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update raised Egypt's growth forecast to 4.6% for 2026, up from 4.4% in 2025, making Egypt one of the few MENA economies to accelerate as the Iran conflict plunges the broader region into contraction. Q1 2026 GDP growth came in at 5% y/y.

Read full article → Al-Ahram Online
EGX · Privatisation

Cairo targets up to four major EGX state listings by mid-2027 under IMF reform plan

(Jul 2026) Egypt plans to list up to four state-owned companies on the EGX within the next 12 months under its $8bn IMF Extended Fund Facility. The pipeline includes a 20% stake in Misr Life Insurance (~EGP 14bn / ~$277mn). Six SOEs have already been temporarily listed, including Sinai Manganese, El Nasr Housing, and Spring Manufacturing. The Oil Ministry is separately preparing ~10 petroleum companies for future listings.

Read full article → Global Finance Magazine · African Markets
EGX · Market

EGX 30 surges to 53,990 intraday Jul 27 — within 2% of all-time high

(27 Jul) The EGX 30 opened at 53,186 and touched an intraday high of 54,065 — approaching its 52-week peak of 54,977 — as oil prices fell sharply on the Iran ceasefire pause. Volume reached 360mn shares. The index is up over 61% in the past 12 months. The 52-week low was 29,741.

Read full article → Investing.com
IMF · 7th Review

Egypt awaits $1.65bn IMF tranche after seventh program review scheduled for July

(Jul 2026) Egypt is pending a $1.65bn disbursement from the IMF contingent on the conclusion of the seventh program review. The IMF has flagged slow progress on state divestiture. The government has committed to completing four privatisation deals before the program ends, targeting ~$1.5bn in revenues — roughly half earmarked for budget deficit reduction.

Read full article → Mada Masr