Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Sunday, 26 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Risk sentiment remains cautious as markets brace for the July 28-29 FOMC meeting amid still-elevated US inflation (PCE 3.8% y/y April, CPI 4.2% May), Brent crude near $97 after Houthi Red Sea tanker attacks pushed it briefly above $100, gold retreating toward $4,060 from war-driven highs, while Egypt's EGX 30 posted modest gains (+1.21%) supported by record FX reserves and a historic first floating-rate T-Note issuance.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,411.98+0.05%Dow Jones51,947.25+0.46%Nasdaq Composite24,975.82-0.64%FTSE 10010,736.23+0.91%DAX25,099.00+1.36%CAC 408,372.28+0.88%Gold$4,061Brent$96.80USD/EGP51.35+0.10%EUR/USD~1.1396-0.33%CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,411.98+0.05%Dow Jones51,947.25+0.46%Nasdaq Composite24,975.82-0.64%FTSE 10010,736.23+0.91%DAX25,099.00+1.36%CAC 408,372.28+0.88%Gold$4,061Brent$96.80USD/EGP51.35+0.10%EUR/USD~1.1396-0.33%CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
52,679.40
+1.21%
S&P 500
7,411.98
+0.05%
Gold
$4,061
USD / EGP
51.35
+0.10%
Brent
$96.80
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
52,679
▲ +358% 5y
8,20620,14832,09044,03155,973 20212022202320242025-072026-07-25 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
51.35
▲ +227% 5y
12.5823.8935.1946.5057.81 2021202220232024-032026-042026-07-24 USD / EGP
CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit) · %
19.00%
▼ -825bps from Apr-2025 peak
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 2021202220232025-042026-022026-07 CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit)
S&P 500 · index
7,411.98
▲ +55% 2y
3,5534,5895,6266,6627,698 20212022202320242025-122026-07-23 S&P 500
Fed Funds Target · %
3.50–3.75%
— hold since Jun 2026
-0.2%1.4%2.9%4.4%5.9% 2022-032023-072024-092025-012026-062026-07 Fed Funds Target
Gold · $/oz
$4,061
▲ +122% 2y
1,6452,2942,9433,5914,240 20212022202320242025-122026-07-24 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Jul 23 close; ~55% above Dec-20247,411.98+0.05%
Dow Jones Jul 23 close51,947.25+0.46%
Nasdaq Composite Jul 23 close; chip-sector drag24,975.82-0.64%
FTSE 100 Jul 23 close10,736.23+0.91%
DAX Jul 23 close25,099.00+1.36%
CAC 40 Jul 23 close8,372.28+0.88%
Nikkei 225 Jul 23 close; BoJ rate-hike fears64,611.15-2.73%
Hang Seng Jul 23 close24,963.23-0.98%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 Jul 25 close (EGX trading day); YTD ~+26%52,679.40+1.21%
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit rate — Unchanged — Jul 10, 2026 MPC meeting; third consecutive hold.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending rate — Unchanged — Jul 10, 2026 MPC meeting.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit rate19.00%Unchanged — Jul 10, 2026 MPC meeting; third consecutive hold
Overnight lending rate20.00%Unchanged — Jul 10, 2026 MPC meeting
Main operation rate19.50%Unchanged — corridor midpoint; effective Feb 15, 2026
Discount rate19.50%Unchanged — effective Feb 15, 2026
Treasury bills
91-day (3-month)~25.45%Last available auction print (Apr 29, 2026); Jul 16 auction data not yet extracted
63-day floating T-Note (NEW)~19.80%First-ever variable-rate T-Note; yield = CBE main-op rate (19.50%) + 30bps; issued Jul 16, matures Sep 17, 2026
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.64%
1-year UST4.14%
2-year UST4.33%
3-year UST4.36%
5-year UST4.43%
10-year UST4.69%
30-year UST5.16%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.19%
United States (Jul 24, 2026 — last Fed H.15 business day)
Fed funds target Held Jun 17, 2026; next FOMC Jul 28–293.50–3.75%
SOFR overnight FRED data through Jul 23, 2026; effective fed funds rate~3.63%
2-year UST~3.47%
10-year UST Yahoo Finance CBOE 10Y Const. Mat. ticker +0.11% at 4.391 on Jul 23~4.39%
Euro Area (effective Jun 17, 2026)
ECB deposit facility rate Raised Jun 2026; held Jul 24 meeting per CNBC2.25%
ECB MRO (main refi) rate Effective Jun 17, 20262.40%
ECB marginal lending facility Effective Jun 17, 20262.65%
10-year Bund yield~2.80%
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP51.35+0.10%
EUR / USD~1.1396-0.33%
GBP / USD~1.3377-0.20%
USD / JPY~161.95-0.25%
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD (Jul 24) Spot gold +0.3% at $4,060.47 on Fri; down ~2% Thur after Brent >$100 stoked rate-hike fears; YTD still up sharply from ~$2,650▲ $4,061
Brent Crude · ICE (Jul 24) Fell ~4% Friday on Pakistan/China Iran-mediation hopes after topping $100 Thur for first time since May; still +10% on the week▼ $96.80
WTI Crude · NYMEX (Jul 24) -3.1% Friday; range Fri 85.87–92.81; 52-wk range $54.98–$117.63▼ $89.31
Copper · LME (Jul 24) +0.83%; from Rio Times global markets board▲ $6.36/lb
05

Global Economy

Middle East · Energy

Brent briefly tops $100 as Houthis strike two Saudi tankers; US launches 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran

(Jul 22–24) Iran-backed Houthi militants attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea on July 22, sending Brent crude above $100/bbl for the first time since May and triggering a 3.4% oil surge on Wednesday. The US carried out its 13th straight night of airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure; both sides ruled out near-term talks. By Friday July 25, Brent retreated ~4% to ~$96.80 on reports that Pakistan and China were seeking to revive US-Iran negotiations, but oil remained ~10% higher on the week. President Trump warned of 'major military punishment' if Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping continued.

Read full article → CNBC · Trading Economics · Forbes Advisor
US · Fed / FOMC

Markets brace for July 28–29 FOMC; traders price ~80% chance of September rate hike as inflation stays elevated

(Jul 24–25) The Federal Open Market Committee meets July 28–29, with markets widely expecting rates to remain on hold at 3.50–3.75%. However, the CME FedWatch Tool showed roughly 80% odds of a 25bps hike in September 2026, as PCE inflation ran at 3.8% y/y in April and CPI hit 4.2% y/y in May — the highest since the Iran conflict escalated. FOMC June minutes (released Jul 8) revealed a divided committee; nine of 18 officials projected at least one hike for 2026. Q2 advance GDP and June PCE data are due July 30, the day after the decision.

Read full article → CNBC · Wells Fargo Advisors · Forbes · Kraken Blog
US · Earnings / Tech

Alphabet falls 7%, Tesla tumbles 14% on earnings as AI capex surge spooks markets

(Jul 22) US equities sold off sharply Thursday July 22 after Alphabet reported a 142% year-on-year jump in capital expenditures to $5.79bn and Tesla's gross margin fell below analyst estimates. The S&P 500 lost 1.21% to 7,408.30 and the Nasdaq dropped 2.15% to 25,137.69. The tech-heavy sell-off compounded oil-driven inflation fears, with both megacap names raising concerns about whether elevated AI investment can be squared with earnings growth.

Read full article → CNBC
ECB · Rates

ECB holds deposit rate at 2.25% but signals readiness to hike in September if inflation persists

(Jul 22) The European Central Bank voted to keep its main deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.25% at its July meeting, in line with market expectations, but left the door open to a September increase. Eurozone inflation eased to 2.8% in June, but oil-driven energy cost pass-through kept policymakers cautious. Traders are pricing a 25bps hike in September. The ECB raised rates from near-zero to 2.25% in a single cycle starting June 2026 in response to energy-shock inflation.

Read full article → CNBC
Global · IMF

IMF downgrades 2026 global growth to 3.0% as Middle East war hits MENA; Egypt upgraded to 4.6%

(Jul 23–25) The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0%, citing energy-price shock from the US-Iran conflict and tighter financial conditions. MENA region aggregate output contracted. Egypt was a notable exception: the IMF upgraded Egypt's 2026 growth projection to 4.6% (from 4.4%), describing the war's impact on Egypt as 'relatively contained'. A June 2026 staff-level agreement could unlock ~$1.6bn in IMF EFF disbursements.

Read full article → Ahram Online · Zawya · The National
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Real GDP growth
4.6%
+0.2pp vs Apr forecast
Headline urban inflation
14.3%
-0.3pp m/m
Net FX reserves
$55.07bn
+$1.93bn m/m
CBE overnight deposit rate
19.00%
0bps
Remittances (Jul 25–May 26)
$43.1bn
+31.2% y/y
Suez Canal revenue
Record FY25-26
Improved vs recent lows
IMF · EFF

IMF staff-level agreement could unlock ~$1.6bn; 8th EFF review scheduled Sep 15

(Jul 16) The IMF reached a staff-level agreement with Egypt on two pending financing reviews under the $8bn Extended Fund Facility in June 2026, potentially unlocking approximately $1.6bn in disbursements. The 8th review is scheduled for September 15, ahead of the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings. The IMF's Middle East director Jihad Azour told Ahram Online that Egypt 'swiftly cushioned' the impact of the regional war, pointing to strong remittances and reserve accumulation as key buffers. The EFF programme runs through December 2026.

Read full article → Ahram Online · EnterpriseAM · The National
EGX · Privatisation

20 state-owned companies now temporarily listed on EGX; petroleum IPOs and Misr Life Insurance 20% stake next

(Jul 13) Prime Minister Madbouly confirmed that 20 of 30 companies in the state divestment programme have secured temporary EGX listings, comprising 17 public-business-sector firms and three petroleum companies (ENPPI, Marine Petroleum Services, ELAB). Technical procedures continue for the remaining 10. The overall programme targets stakes in 35 SOEs under Egypt's IMF-linked State Ownership Policy. Investment Minister El Khatib says more than seven additional public offerings — including private-sector names — are expected within the next year. A 20% stake in Misr Life Insurance is expected to raise ~EGP 14bn (~$277mn).

Read full article → bne IntelliNews · Global Finance Magazine · African Markets
CBE · T-Notes

Egypt launches first-ever 63-day floating-rate Treasury Notes worth EGP 150bn

(Jul 21) The Central Bank of Egypt, on behalf of the Finance Ministry, issued EGP 150bn in 63-day Treasury Notes — a new instrument for Egypt — carrying a variable return linked to the CBE's main operation rate (19.50%) plus a 30bps margin, implying a current yield of ~19.80%. The CBE received two bids covering the full amount and accepted both at a 100% allocation rate. The notes run from July 16 to September 17, 2026. EnterpriseAM described the move as a 'wager on rate cuts' that lets the government share in any easing rather than locking in today's high fixed yields.

Read full article → EnterpriseAM · Zawya
FX · Reserves

Egypt FX reserves hit historic $55.07bn at end-June, up $1.93bn on month

(Jul 16–18) Egypt's net international reserves rose to a record $55.07bn at end-June 2026, compared with $53.13bn in May — the highest level in the country's history according to the CBE. Key drivers include record remittances (up 31.2% y/y to $43.1bn in the July–May FY period), improving net foreign assets in the banking sector, and partial FX revaluation effects from a stronger euro and sterling against the dollar. Foreign portfolio inflows into government debt were also positive: cumulative Q2 2026 inflows into Egyptian government securities reached ~$11.66bn.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt · Economy Middle East · AGBI
Egypt · Inflation

Urban inflation slows to 14.3% in June — lowest since before Mid-East conflict; CBE targets 7% by Q4-2026

(Jul 10) Annual urban headline inflation eased to 14.3% in June 2026, down from 14.9% in April and 14.6% in May — the third consecutive monthly slowdown and the lowest since before the onset of the Iran war. Core inflation also moved to 14.3% in June (up from 13.8% in May). The CBE's official inflation target is 7% (±2pp) for Q4-2026, a goal that analysts at Beltone Financial warn could be threatened by base effects pushing headline prints to 16–17% in coming months. The July MPC nonetheless kept rates on hold.

Read full article → Trading Economics · EnterpriseAM · AGBI
EGX · Market

EGX 30 slips 0.70% on CIB drag but small-caps hit record; foreign net portfolio outflows $1.46bn last week

(Jul 20) The EGX 30 declined 0.70% to 52,560 points on Sunday July 20, weighed by a 1.3% fall in Commercial International Bank — Egypt's largest listed lender. In contrast, the EGX70 Equal Weight Index climbed 1.25% to a record 17,263.26 points. Market cap eased marginally to EGP 3.886 trillion. Arab and foreign investors recorded ~$1.46bn in net sales in Egyptian government securities during the prior week — following $8.76bn of net purchases in June — suggesting selective rather than wholesale retreat.

Read full article → Middle East Observer
Petroleum · IPO

ENPPI, Marine Petroleum Services and ELAB complete EGX temporary listing; Petrojet and Midor next in July

(Jun–Jul) Three petroleum sector companies — Engineering for the Petroleum & Process Industries (ENPPI), Marine Petroleum Services, and Egyptian Linear Alkyl Benzene Company (ELAB) — completed temporary EGX listings, with the FRA's Islam Azzam pegging their combined book capital at ~EGP 35bn, with fair value substantially higher. The listings fulfil part of Egypt's commitment to bring 10 petroleum companies to market by end-June under its IMF programme. Petrojet and Midor are expected to list in July. The programme is also part of Egypt's EU and World Bank commitments to expand the private sector.

Read full article → EnterpriseAM · Ahram Online
Egypt · Saudi solidarity

Egypt condemns Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities at Yanbu and Jizan

(Jul 25) Egypt renewed full solidarity with Saudi Arabia following Houthi missile and drone strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and Jizan, condemning all forms of aggression against civilian infrastructure. The attacks, which coincided with Houthi tanker strikes in the Red Sea, drove Brent above $100 on July 22. Egypt's stance is economically significant given Saudi Arabia's importance as a source of remittances (GCC workers represent the largest share) and bilateral investment. Egypt is itself a transit economy highly sensitive to Red Sea disruption.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt
Suez Canal

Suez Canal Economic Zone posts record revenue in FY2025-26

(Jul 18) The Suez Canal Economic Zone recorded its highest-ever revenue in fiscal year 2025-26, according to Ports Europe. Canal receipts have shown 'relative improvement' versus the lows of late 2025 — when Houthi attacks diverted significant shipping — though they remain below earlier peak levels, CBE board member Abdel Aal told Daily News Egypt. The recovery in Canal revenue, alongside record remittances and tourism, has supported Egypt's FX reserve build to $55bn.

Read full article → Ports Europe via NewsNow · Daily News Egypt
Egypt · Growth

Economists see Egypt FY26 real GDP at ~4.8%; pound forecast at EGP 49/$ by end-FY27

(Jul 20) A Reuters poll showed Egypt's real GDP growth forecast at ~4.8% for FY2025-26 (ending June 2026), with inflation expected to average 13.5% in FY2026-27. The Egyptian pound is forecast to trade around EGP 49/$ by end-FY27, a firmer outlook than the April poll's EGP 51.5 forecast, reflecting improved confidence in FX inflows. Longer-term forecasts still project gradual depreciation to EGP 50.49 by June 2029. The CBE forecast growth at ~5% for FY25-26 as of May.

Read full article → Economy Middle East · Zawya
Egypt · Remittances

Remittances surge 31.2% y/y to $43bn in Jul–May FY25-26; GCC-based Egyptians dominate

(Jul 14–18) Remittances from Egyptians working abroad reached approximately $43.1bn in the first 11 months of FY2025-26 (July 2025–May 2026), the highest level in the country's history, up 31.2% year-on-year from $32.8bn a year earlier. Monthly remittances hit ~$3.9bn in May 2026, a 13.5% year-on-year gain. The bulk originates from Egyptians in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The CBE attributes the surge partly to the elimination of the currency black market in March 2024, which channelled more flows through formal banking systems.

Read full article → AGBI · Daily News Egypt · Economy Middle East
World Bank · Health

World Bank backs expansion of Egypt's universal health insurance scheme

(Jul 16) The World Bank approved financing to expand Egypt's universal health insurance programme, according to Amwal Al Ghad. The backing aligns with Egypt's broader social protection agenda and the government's EGP 40.3bn social support package. The programme forms part of Egypt's World Bank development partnership alongside IMF and EU agreements. The expansion is expected to deepen coverage beyond the initial pilot governorates, addressing one of the IMF's structural reform benchmarks.

Read full article → Amwal Al Ghad via NewsNow