Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Saturday, 25 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Global risk-off week closes with Wall Street mixed and oil near $98/bbl as the 13th consecutive night of US strikes on Iran keeps energy markets on edge, Fed rate-hike odds climb to 34% for July 28-29 FOMC, and Egypt's EGX 30 surges to ~54,000 on record FX reserves and strong remittance data.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,411.98+0.05%Dow Jones51,947.25+0.46%Nasdaq Composite24,975.82-0.64%FTSE 10010,639.17-0.73%DAX24,763.12-1.56%CAC 408,299.09-1.64%Gold$4,056Brent$98.38USD/EGP51.35+0.10%EUR/USD~1.100~flatCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,411.98+0.05%Dow Jones51,947.25+0.46%Nasdaq Composite24,975.82-0.64%FTSE 10010,639.17-0.73%DAX24,763.12-1.56%CAC 408,299.09-1.64%Gold$4,056Brent$98.38USD/EGP51.35+0.10%EUR/USD~1.100~flatCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
53,990
+1.51%
S&P 500
7,411.98
+0.05%
Gold
$4,056
USD / EGP
51.35
+0.10%
Brent
$98.38
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
53,990
▲ +369% 5y
6,26519,08031,89544,71057,525 20212022202320242025-072026-022026-07-25 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
51.35
▲ +227% 5y
12.5623.9335.3046.6658.03 2021202220232024-032026-042026-07-22 USD / EGP
CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit) · %
19.00%
▼ -825bps from Mar-2024 peak
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 2021202220232024-032025-022026-022026-07-09 CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit)
S&P 500 · index
7,411.98
▲ +19% ytd
3,5444,6165,6896,7617,833 20212022202320242026-012026-07-052026-07-24 S&P 500
Fed Funds Target · %
3.50–3.75%
— on hold since Mar 2026
-0.2%1.4%2.9%4.4%5.9% 2021202220232024-092025-012026-032026-07-25 Fed Funds Target
Gold · $/oz
$4,056
▼ off Apr peak $5,025; +55% 2y
1,5682,4963,4254,3535,281 20212022202320242026-022026-04-302026-07-24 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Fri Jul 24 close; weekly loss -1.2%7,411.98+0.05%
Dow Jones Fri Jul 24 close; Apple +3.5% led gains51,947.25+0.46%
Nasdaq Composite Fri Jul 24; chip sell-off; weekly -2%24,975.82-0.64%
FTSE 100 Thu Jul 24 close (London)10,639.17-0.73%
DAX Thu Jul 24 close24,763.12-1.56%
CAC 40 Thu Jul 24 close8,299.09-1.64%
Nikkei 225 Thu Jul 24 close; chip/Iran sell-off64,604.84-2.74%
Hang Seng Thu Jul 24 close24,892.66-0.95%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 Jul 25 intraday (Investing.com); range 53,186–54,06553,990+1.51%
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit — unchanged at Jul 9 MPC; cut 100bps Feb 2026.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending — unchanged at Jul 9 MPC.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit19.00%unchanged at Jul 9 MPC; cut 100bps Feb 2026
Overnight lending20.00%unchanged at Jul 9 MPC
Main operation (1-week repo)19.50%unchanged at Jul 9 MPC
Discount rate19.50%unchanged at Jul 9 MPC
Treasury bills
91-day~25.5%
182-day~26.0%latest CBE auction approx
273-day~26.3%latest CBE auction approx
364-day~26.8%latest CBE auction approx
Treasury bonds
3-year~27.0%secondary market approx
5-year~27.5%secondary market approx
10-year~28.0%secondary market approx
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.64%
1-year UST4.14%
2-year UST4.33%
3-year UST4.36%
5-year UST4.43%
10-year UST4.69%
30-year UST5.16%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.19%
United Kingdom
BoE Bank Rate last cut May 20264.25%
SONIA (overnight) BoE published; approx consistent with Bank Rate~4.20%
10-year Gilt yield Jul 24 approx; elevated on energy/inflation~4.75%
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP51.35+0.10%
EUR / EGP~56.50~flat
GBP / EGP~65.70~flat
SAR / EGP~13.69flat
EUR / USD~1.100~flat
GBP / USD~1.279~flat
USD / JPY~159.33-0.21%
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD Jul 24 close (Yahoo Finance); off Apr peak $5,025; up on Iran tensions but capped by Fed rate-hike risk▲ $4,056
Brent Crude Jul 24 (Trading Economics); up ~10% on week; 13th straight US strike on Iran; touched $100 intraday▲ $98.38
WTI Crude Jul 24 (Yahoo Finance); Caspian Pipeline also disrupted▲ ~$90.47
Copper · HG Jul 24 approx; steady despite risk-off; China PBOC liquidity injection supportive— ~$4.35/lb
05

Global Economy

Middle East · Oil

US carries out 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran as Brent nears $100

(24 Jul) US Central Command carried out its 13th straight night of strikes on Iran targeting military and maritime infrastructure, keeping Brent crude near $100/bbl through the week. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium also suspended Black Sea loadings after tanker attacks, disrupting ~80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports. Oil fell ~4% on Friday as Pakistan-mediated peace talks were reported but Brent remains ~10% higher on the week.

Read full article → Trading Economics · Reuters via CNBC
US · FOMC

Markets price 34% chance of Fed rate hike at Jul 28-29 meeting as oil-driven inflation revives hawkish bets

(24 Jul) With Brent crude near $100, markets now assign a 34% probability of a Fed rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting and over 81% odds of a September hike. The Fed has held the funds target at 3.50–3.75% since March 2026, but escalating energy prices are eroding progress on disinflation. New US tariffs of 10–12.5% on major trading partners further complicate the outlook.

Read full article → Trading Economics · Reuters
US · Earnings & PMI

S&P 500 posts weekly loss as chip sell-off offsets strong PMI; Dow steadies on Apple surge

(24 Jul) Wall Street diverged on Friday as S&P Global's flash US PMI showed business activity expanding at its fastest pace in eight months in July, boosted partly by World Cup spending, yet megacap tech weakness drove a 2% Nasdaq weekly decline. Intel shares fell nearly 8% after earnings, while Apple's 3.5% gain anchored the Dow. Verizon, American Express and NextEra all beat earnings estimates but missed on revenue.

Read full article → Yahoo Finance · CNBC
Asia · Markets

Nikkei drops 2.74%, Hang Seng falls as Iran war and chip jitters ripple through Asian session

(24 Jul) Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.74% to 64,604.84 and the Hang Seng slipped ~1% as the technology-led sell-off on Wall Street and surging US Treasury yields spread to Asian markets. The risk-off mood was reinforced by Fed rate-hike expectations, though China's PBOC injected its largest liquidity dose in five months via the medium-term lending facility, offering some offset.

Read full article → Yahoo Finance · Trading Economics
Energy · Tariffs

Trump imposes new tariffs on Canada; exempts energy products as oil prices threaten inflation trajectory

(24 Jul) The White House unveiled fresh 50% tariffs on an array of Canadian goods but exempted energy products as oil prices surged and threatened to reignite inflation. The move rekindled fears of a tit-for-tat trade war and added to the uncertain market backdrop, weighing on equities while lifting the dollar.

Read full article → Yahoo Finance · CNBC
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Real GDP growth
4.2%
+1.8pp vs FY2023/24
Headline inflation (CPI)
14.3%
-0.3pp m/m
Net FX reserves (NIR)
$55.1bn
+$3.6bn H1 2026
CBE overnight deposit rate
19.00%
-100bps Feb 2026
Primary balance
+3.5% of GDP
targeting +4.8% FY25/26
Remittances (11M FY25/26)
$43.1bn
+31.2% y/y
CBE · Monetary Policy

MPC holds all four corridor rates unchanged at July 9 meeting

(9 Jul) Egypt's Monetary Policy Committee kept the overnight deposit rate at 19.00%, lending rate at 20.00%, main operation rate at 19.50%, and discount rate at 19.50%, citing the need to sustain disinflation as June CPI remained elevated at 14.3%. The CBE's own outlook projects headline inflation averaging 12.5% in FY2025/26.

Read full article → CBE
CBE · FX Reserves

Egypt's NIR hits record $55.07bn at end-June 2026

(8 Jul) Net international reserves rose to a provisional record of $55,072.3mn at end-June 2026, up from $53,134mn in May—a $1.9bn jump in one month. The $3.6bn H1 2026 gain reflects stronger FDI, surging remittances, and euro/sterling appreciation against the dollar boosting the multi-currency reserve basket.

Read full article → CBE · Daily News Egypt
CBE · Remittances

Remittances from Egyptians abroad surge 31.2% to $43.1bn in 11 months of FY2025/26

(9 Jul) The CBE reported that remittances totalled $43.1bn in the July–May period of FY2025/26, up 31.2% from $32.8bn a year earlier. Monthly inflows reached $3.9bn in May 2026, up 13.5% year-on-year, sustaining momentum from the March 2024 exchange-rate reform that eliminated the parallel-market premium.

Read full article → CBE
CBE · Balance of Payments

BoP deficit narrows to $1.8bn in July–March FY2025/26 as FDI, tourism and Suez rebound

(12 Jul) Egypt's overall BoP deficit narrowed 2.9% to $1.8bn in the first nine months of FY2025/26. Remittances surged 32% to $34.9bn, tourism revenues rose 14.9% to $14.4bn, and Suez Canal receipts climbed 22.1% to $3.2bn. Net FDI rose sharply to $13bn from $9.8bn, including the $3.5bn Alam El-Roum deal. Portfolio outflows of $4.4bn partly offset these gains amid regional geopolitical tensions.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt · CBE
IMF · Egypt Review

IMF upgrades Egypt's 2026 growth to 4.6% in July World Economic Outlook

(Jul) The IMF raised Egypt's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in 2025, in its July WEO update, noting Egypt's resilience relative to broader MENA contraction. The Fund cautioned that global oil prices are projected to average $89/bbl this year—32% above last year—posing an upside risk to Egypt's import bill and fiscal position, though the US–Iran diplomatic track is assumed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz from mid-July.

Read full article → Egypt Daily News · IMF
Fiscal · Debt

Egypt targets primary surplus of 4.8% of GDP in FY2025/26 as IMF praises fiscal discipline

(Dec 2025 IMF SLA) The IMF's fifth and sixth review under Egypt's Extended Fund Facility praised robust fiscal performance: the primary surplus reached 3.5% of GDP in FY2024/25, with tax revenues growing 36%. Egypt is targeting a 4.8% primary surplus this fiscal year and 5.0% in FY2026/27. Public debt stood at 84% of GDP but is on a declining path toward 80% by mid-2026.

Read full article → IMF · AfDB
EGX · Privatisation

EGX accelerates IPO pipeline with six state-owned listings; oil sector next

(Apr 2026) EGX Vice Chairman Mohamed Sabry finalised terms for the temporary listing of six state-owned companies: Sinai Manganese, Spring Manufacturing (Yayat), Egyptian Contracting Co. (El Abd), and El Nasr Housing on the main market, with two SME-segment listings. Work is also underway to bring several petroleum-sector companies to market to diversify the exchange's sectoral mix.

Read full article → African Markets
Egypt · Suez Canal

Suez Canal Economic Zone posts record revenue in FY2025-2026

(16 Jul) The Suez Canal Economic Zone posted record revenue in FY2025-2026, aided by the increase in transiting vessel numbers (+5.8% to 6,700 in H1 FY25/26) and net tonnage (+16.1%). Canal transit receipts rose 19% to $2.2bn in H1 FY25/26 and 22.1% to $3.2bn in the July–March period. Recovery remains incomplete relative to pre-Houthi disruption peaks, but officials cite lower geopolitical risks in recent months.

Read full article → Ports Europe via NewsNow · CBE
Egypt · Macro Scenario

PM Madbouly orders updated economic scenarios for fallout from US–Iran–Israel military operations

(Jul) Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly directed the ministerial economic group to update comprehensive scenarios for handling the economic fallout from military operations involving the US, Israel, and Iran. The directive underscores Egypt's vulnerability to oil-price shocks, Red Sea shipping disruption, and capital-flow volatility, as global disinflation has stalled with crude now projected to average $89/bbl in 2026.

Read full article → Egypt Today
Egypt · FX Rate

USD/EGP stabilises near 51.35 as CBE holds rates; 52-week range 46.64–54.89

(25 Jul) The Egyptian pound is trading at approximately EGP 51.35 per dollar, within a weekly range of 50.45–51.34 (Wise), well off the April peak of 54.89. The CBE's last update to the exchange-rate historical data page was July 22, 2026. The pound's relative stability reflects record FX reserves and strong remittance inflows, though Iran-driven oil prices above $98/bbl represent a latent upside risk to the import bill.

Read full article → CBE · Investing.com · Wise
CBE · Banking

CBE issues 20-pound polymer banknote; banks adopt ISO 20022 standard

(Jun–Jul 2026) The Central Bank of Egypt issued a new polymer EGP 20 banknote as part of currency modernisation efforts. Separately, banks operating in Egypt have adopted the international ISO 20022 standard for financial transfers, aligning Egypt's payment infrastructure with global messaging norms and supporting correspondent banking relationships.

Read full article → CBE
Egypt · AfDB

Egypt–AfDB strategic partnership reaches $8bn cumulative portfolio; FM meets AfDB president

(Jul) Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met African Development Bank President Sidi Ould Tah to strengthen the strategic partnership, which has accumulated an $8 billion cooperation portfolio. Egypt remains committed to fiscal discipline and structural reforms aimed at reinforcing macroeconomic stability, according to Planning Minister Ahmed Rostom, who presented Egypt's voluntary national review at the UN ECOSOC forum.

Read full article → Egypt Today