Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Friday, 24 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Middle East supply-shock dominates: Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and US strikes on Iran pushed Brent above $100 for the first time in two months, triggering a global equity sell-off (S&P −1.2%, Nasdaq −2.5%), hawkish Fed-rate-hike repricing, and gold under pressure from rising real rates, while Egyptian assets track geopolitical headwinds that simultaneously crimp Suez Canal and energy-import budgets.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,498.96-0.14%Dow Jones51,664.17-1.06%Nasdaq Composite25,050.74-2.49%FTSE 10010,639.17-0.73%DAX24,763.12-1.56%CAC 408,299.09-1.64%Gold$4,044Brent$100.65USD/EGP51.39+0.70%EUR/USD1.1726+0.33%CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,498.96-0.14%Dow Jones51,664.17-1.06%Nasdaq Composite25,050.74-2.49%FTSE 10010,639.17-0.73%DAX24,763.12-1.56%CAC 408,299.09-1.64%Gold$4,044Brent$100.65USD/EGP51.39+0.70%EUR/USD1.1726+0.33%CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
~52,100
n/d
S&P 500
7,498.96
-0.14%
Gold
$4,044
USD / EGP
51.39
+0.70%
Brent
$100.65
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
~52,100
▲ +353% 5y
8,25220,02631,80043,57455,348 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-07-24 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
51.39
▲ +228% 5y
12.6823.4534.2245.0055.77 2021-122022-122023-122024-032026-032026-07-22 USD / EGP
CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit) · %
19.00%
▼ -825bps since Dec-24 peak
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-02-122026-07-09 CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit)
S&P 500 · index
7,498.96
▲ +57% 5y
3,5474,6085,6706,7317,792 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-07-23 S&P 500
Fed Funds Target · %
3.50–3.75%
— Held Jun 17; +25bp hike 79.5% priced for Sep
-0.3%1.2%2.8%4.3%5.8% 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-07-24 Fed Funds Target
Gold · $/oz
$4,044
▼ +121% 5y
1,6452,2932,9413,5884,236 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-07-23 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Jul 23 close; Bloomberg reports intraday drop reached -1.2% — biggest one-day fall in a month7,498.96-0.14%
Dow Jones Jul 23 close (Yahoo Finance)51,664.17-1.06%
Nasdaq Composite Jul 23 close; megacap tech hardest hit25,050.74-2.49%
FTSE 100 Jul 23 close (Yahoo Finance); had closed +1.24% on Jul 2210,639.17-0.73%
DAX Jul 23 close (Yahoo Finance)24,763.12-1.56%
CAC 40 Jul 23 close (Yahoo Finance)8,299.09-1.64%
Nikkei 225 Jul 23 close (Yahoo Finance); futures pointing lower for Jul 24 open on Wall Street sell-off66,422.60+0.46%
Hang Seng Jul 23 close (Yahoo Finance)25,210.81+1.28%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30~52,100n/d
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit — Unchanged — third consecutive hold at Jul 9 MPC meeting.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending — Unchanged — ceiling of corridor; 100bps spread over deposit.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit19.00%Unchanged — third consecutive hold at Jul 9 MPC meeting
Overnight lending20.00%Unchanged — ceiling of corridor; 100bps spread over deposit
Main operation19.50%Unchanged — corridor midpoint; new 63-day floating T-notes priced at midpoint +30bps ≈ 19.80%
Discount rate19.50%Unchanged at Jul 9 MPC
Treasury bills
63-day floating T-note~19.80%First-ever issuance: EGP 150bn, Jul 16 — Sep 17; yield = main op rate + 30bps (enterpriseam.com, Jul 21)
Treasury bonds
Egyptian T-bill range (91–364d)22–25%
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.62%
1-year UST4.15%
2-year UST4.37%
3-year UST4.40%
5-year UST4.46%
10-year UST4.71%
30-year UST5.17%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.18%
United Kingdom
BoE Bank Rate Held at Jun 18 MPC (7–2 vote); next decision Jul 30 (cambridgecurrencies.com)3.75%
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP51.39+0.70%
EUR / USD1.1726+0.33%
GBP / USD1.3529+0.47%
USD / JPY159.33-0.21%
EUR / EGP~60.24n/d
GBP / EGP~69.56n/d
SAR / EGP~13.70n/d
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD Trading Economics Jul 24; −0.14% on day; pulled back from 2-week high as oil-driven Fed-hike fears weigh on non-yielding assets; still up ~21% y/y▼ $4,044
Brent Crude · ICE Trading Economics Jul 23: up 7% on day, highest since May; breached $100/bbl on Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in Red Sea▲ $100.65
WTI Crude · NYMEX Trading Economics Jul 23: up 6.37% on day; 5th consecutive session of gains; Investing.com shows $89.28 settling range▲ $92.36
05

Global Economy

Energy · Middle East

Houthis attack Saudi tankers in Red Sea; Brent tops $100 for first time in two months

(23 Jul) Iran-backed Houthi militants fired missiles and drones at two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, saying the strikes enforced a newly declared blockade of Saudi ports. Brent crude surged above $100 a barrel — the highest since May — for the first time in two months, extending a five-session rally that has lifted prices ~40% in July. US President Trump simultaneously warned of strikes on Iranian infrastructure if Tehran continues to target shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, escalating a dual-chokepoint energy crisis.

Read full article → Bloomberg · The National · Washington Post
US · Equities

S&P 500 drops 1.2% in biggest one-day fall in a month as megacap tech sells off

(23 Jul) The S&P 500 fell 1.2% on July 23 — its sharpest single-day decline in a month — and the Nasdaq 100 lost 1.9%, as oil-driven inflation fears reignited expectations that the Fed may need to hike rates in September. A gauge of megacap stocks posted its worst session since the April 2025 tariff-driven rout. The VIX spiked 17% to 19.53, with equity-index futures in Japan, South Korea, and Australia pointing lower on the open.

Read full article → Bloomberg · Yahoo Finance
Central Banks · ECB

ECB holds deposit rate at 2.25% in July; September hike now ~70% priced in on oil shock

(23 Jul) The ECB Governing Council held its deposit facility rate at 2.25% at the July 23 meeting, as expected with 95%+ market probability. President Lagarde's press conference highlighted that energy-price risks are 'tilted to the upside', validating market pricing of a ~70% probability of a further 25bp hike at the September 10 meeting. ECB minutes from June noted officials agreed to avoid forward guidance, underscoring a purely data-dependent stance.

Read full article → Trading Economics · ecb-watch.eu · FX Leaders
US · Fed / Rates

Markets reprice Fed path: 79.5% probability of September rate hike as oil lifts CPI risks

(23 Jul) Money markets now assign a 79.5% probability of a Fed rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, up sharply from recent weeks, as surging oil prices reinforce fears that June's CPI cooldown (3.5% y/y) will prove temporary. The next FOMC meeting is July 28–29; the Fed is universally expected to hold at 3.50–3.75%. The 10-year UST yield climbed 3bps to 4.63% on July 22 and the 2s–10s spread widened to +37bps.

Read full article → primerates.com · ustreasuryyieldcurve.com · sofrrate.com
Egypt · Fiscal Risk

Egypt publishes first-ever climate fiscal risk statement for FY2026/27

(23 Jul) Egypt has released its inaugural Fiscal Risk Statement on Climate Change for FY 2026/27, quantifying how physical climate shocks and the global energy transition could affect public finances — from the electricity grid to major PPP infrastructure. The statement sits inside Egypt's IMF-backed reform program; the Fund had flagged the state's guarantee stock as a fiscal risk in its June 29 Article IV statement. It sets the template for program-based budgeting by FY 2027/28.

Read full article → EnterpriseAM
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Headline inflation (CAPMAS)
12.2%
-0.8pp m/m
Urban headline CPI (CBE)
14.3%
-0.3pp m/m
Net FX Reserves
$55.07bn
Provisional end-Jun 2026
CBE Overnight Deposit Rate
19.00%
Unchanged — 3rd consecutive hold
Remittances (Jul–May FY25/26)
$43.1bn
+28% y/y
Real GDP Growth
4.6%
+0.2pp vs IMF Apr WEO
IMF · EFF Review

IMF upgrades Egypt 2026 growth to 4.6% amid broader MENA contraction

(9 Jul) The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update raised Egypt's 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in 2025, even as regional war plunges the broader MENA into contraction. The upgrade reflects Egypt's resilience anchored by the IMF's USD 8bn EFF, strong remittances, and tourism revenues. The eighth EFF review is scheduled for September 15, with two tranches of USD 3.3bn still to unlock.

Read full article → Ahram Online · EnterpriseAM
CBE · Rates

CBE holds all four policy rates for a third consecutive meeting

(9 Jul) The CBE Monetary Policy Committee kept the overnight deposit rate at 19%, the lending rate at 20%, and both the main operation and discount rates at 19.5% — the third straight hold since the 100bps cut in February 2026. The MPC cited continued monitoring of inflation dynamics and the uncertain global environment, particularly rising energy prices, as reasons to pause the easing cycle. The next MPC meeting is scheduled for September 24.

Read full article → Egypt Today · CBE
CBE · T-Notes

Egypt issues first-ever 63-day floating-rate Treasury notes — EGP 150bn fully allocated

(21 Jul) The CBE issued Egypt's inaugural 63-day floating-rate Treasury notes (T-Notes) worth EGP 150bn on behalf of the Finance Ministry. The instrument yields the corridor midpoint (19.5%) plus a 30bps margin — approximately 19.80% — and reprices with every policy-rate change, giving the government flexible debt-management optionality. The CBE received exactly two bids, both accepted in full at 100% allocation, effective July 16 through September 17.

Read full article → EnterpriseAM · Zawya
EGX · Privatisation

20 of 30 state companies now temporarily listed on EGX; petroleum IPO pipeline accelerating

(13 Jul) Prime Minister Madbouly confirmed that 20 of the 30 companies in Egypt's privatisation programme have secured temporary EGX listings — 17 from the public-business sector and 3 petroleum firms — with technical work ongoing for the remaining 10. Petroleum sector IPOs (ENPPI, ELAB, PMS) are the headline event; Petrojet and Midor are slated for July. The programme targets USD 3–4bn in divestment revenues by end-2026 and USD 6bn by end-FY2027.

Read full article → bne IntelliNews · EnterpriseAM
EGX · IPO

Egypt plans up to four state-company IPOs in next 12 months, including 20% stake in Misr Life Insurance

(Jun 5) Egypt announced plans to list up to four state-owned companies on the EGX within 12 months as part of its USD 8bn IMF-backed reform programme. Key transactions include a 20% stake in Misr Life Insurance (~EGP 14bn / ~$277mn). Investment Minister El Khatib told Reuters more than seven total public offerings — including private-sector companies — are expected to reach market within the year.

Read full article → Global Finance Magazine
Egypt · Fiscal Climate Risk

Egypt publishes inaugural climate fiscal risk statement for FY 2026/27 budget

(23 Jul) Egypt released its first-ever Fiscal Risk Statement on Climate Change for FY 2026/27, obtained by EnterpriseAM, quantifying how physical climate shocks and the low-carbon transition could impact public finances — including the electricity grid and PPP infrastructure. The statement is embedded in Egypt's IMF programme, which flagged the state's guarantee stock as a fiscal risk in the June 29 Article IV, and sets a template for program-based budgeting by FY 2027/28.

Read full article → EnterpriseAM
CBE · Remittances

Egyptian remittances hit record USD 43.1bn over 11 months of FY2025/26

(9 Jul) The CBE reported that remittances from Egyptians working abroad reached USD 43.1bn over the first 11 months of FY2025/26 (July 2025–May 2026), a 28%+ increase year-on-year. The milestone reinforces Egypt's FX stability — remittances, alongside tourism and Suez receipts, provide the USD 50bn+ annual hard-currency inflow buffer that has kept the pound broadly stable despite the oil shock.

Read full article → CBE
Egypt · FX Reserves

Net international reserves reach $55.07bn at end-June 2026

(8 Jul) Egypt's provisional net international reserves rose to USD 55,072.3mn at end-June 2026, according to the CBE. The level marks a meaningful improvement from the ~$53bn cited in the IMF's February review and reflects the combined effect of remittance inflows, tourism receipts, EFF disbursements, and non-resident T-bill investments. Strong reserves continue to underpin EGP stability despite geopolitical headwinds.

Read full article → CBE
EGX · Performance

EGX 30 closed 2Q 2026 up 11.4% but gave back 4.12% in June on profit-taking

(Jul) The EGX 30 benchmark rose 11.4% over Q2 2026, closing the quarter at approximately 50,500 points, driven by travel and education sector outperformance, according to EnterpriseAM. A June selloff of 4.12% trimmed the gains as mid-year portfolio rebalancing and profit-taking set in. Year-over-year, the index is up ~62%, reflecting Egypt's structural reform momentum and non-resident carry-trade inflows.

Read full article → EnterpriseAM
Egypt · Suez Canal

Suez Canal Economic Zone posts record revenue in FY2025–26; canal monthly receipts ~$419mn

(Jul) The Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) posted record revenue for FY 2025–26, according to Ports Europe (Jul 24). Monthly Suez Canal revenues stood at $419mn in May 2026 (CEIC data), down from a $948mn peak in May 2023 but stabilising after Houthi-related disruptions slashed traffic 20–30% in early 2026. The SCZone is simultaneously attracting new green-energy and pharma investment, including a USD 525mn Indorama fertilizer complex backed by IFC and EBRD.

Read full article → Ports Europe via NewsNow · CEIC · EnterpriseAM
Egypt · Energy Risk

Oil above $100 raises Egypt's import bill; Suez tanker rerouting generates short-term traffic

(23 Jul) Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers are producing contradictory effects for Egypt: the rerouting of four Saudi oil tankers away from Bab el-Mandeb towards the Suez Canal represents a near-term traffic boost, but sustained oil above $100/bbl worsens Egypt's energy import bill and risks rekindling inflation that CBE has worked hard to suppress. The dual dynamic is a key variable ahead of the September 24 MPC meeting and September 15 IMF review.

Read full article → The National News · Bloomberg
Egypt · British PM Visit

UK PM Keir Starmer set to visit Egypt in July 2026

(Jul) British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is scheduled to visit Egypt in July 2026, according to EnterpriseAM's forward calendar. The visit is expected to cover bilateral investment and trade ties, as well as regional security coordination amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. The visit coincides with UK equities having outperformed European peers in recent sessions, with the FTSE 100 at 10,639.

Read full article → EnterpriseAM