Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Thursday, 23 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Iran-war oil shock dominates: Brent above $94 after an 11th consecutive round of US strikes keeps energy and risk assets under pressure, while AI-earnings optimism (Alphabet capex beat, Nasdaq 100 futures rebounding) provides a partial offset ahead of Microsoft, Meta and Amazon results.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,498.96-0.14%Dow Jones52,218.58-0.01%Nasdaq Composite25,690.90-0.57%FTSE 10010,600.37+0.27%DAX24,830.98-0.34%CAC 408,364.65+0.31%Gold$4,138.84Brent$94.13USD/EGP~49.74n/vEUR/USD~1.140n/vCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,498.96-0.14%Dow Jones52,218.58-0.01%Nasdaq Composite25,690.90-0.57%FTSE 10010,600.37+0.27%DAX24,830.98-0.34%CAC 408,364.65+0.31%Gold$4,138.84Brent$94.13USD/EGP~49.74n/vEUR/USD~1.140n/vCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
52,047.20
-0.10%
S&P 500
7,498.96
-0.14%
Gold
$4,138.84
USD / EGP
~49.74
n/v
Brent
$94.13
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
52,047 (22 Jul close; EGX holiday 23 Jul)
▲ +28.9% YTD
8,25620,01531,77443,53255,291 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-07-22 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
~49.74 (22 Jun; interbank)
▲ +216% 5y
12.9223.0133.1043.1953.28 2021-122022-122023-122024-032025-122026-06-22 USD / EGP
CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit) · %
19.00%
▼ -825bps from 27.25% peak
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 2021-122022-122023-122024-092026-01-162026-02-122026-07-09 CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit)
S&P 500 · index
7,498.96 (22 Jul close)
▲ +15.4% YTD
3,5474,6085,6706,7317,792 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-07-22 S&P 500
Fed Funds Target · %
3.50–3.75% (midpoint 3.625%)
▼ -175bps since Sep 2024
-0.2%1.4%2.9%4.4%5.9% 2021-122023-072024-092025-012025-092026-07 Fed Funds Target
Gold · $/oz
$4,138.84 (22 Jul spot)
▲ +27% from Jan 2026 low ~$3,942
1,6392,3102,9823,6534,324 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-07-22 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 22 Jul close; pressured by oil-price spike on Iran strikes7,498.96-0.14%
Dow Jones 22 Jul close; near flat as Nvidia/J&J gains offset software weakness52,218.58-0.01%
Nasdaq Composite 22 Jul close; Alphabet/MSFT/Meta drag pre-earnings25,690.90-0.57%
FTSE 100 Latest available; new PM Andy Burnham cabinet formed10,600.37+0.27%
DAX Latest available24,830.98-0.34%
CAC 40 Latest available8,364.65+0.31%
Nikkei 225 22 Jul close; chip stocks volatile66,115.60-0.18%
Hang Seng Latest available; Samsung/SK Hynix AI-related bid24,213.72+0.16%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 22 Jul close; EGX closed 23 Jul (bank holiday); +28.9% YTD52,047.20-0.10%
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit — Held at 9 Jul 2026 MPC — 4th consecutive hold.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending — Held at 9 Jul 2026 MPC.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit19.00%Held at 9 Jul 2026 MPC — 4th consecutive hold
Overnight lending20.00%Held at 9 Jul 2026 MPC
Main operation rate19.50%Held at 9 Jul 2026 MPC
Discount rate19.50%Held at 9 Jul 2026 MPC
Treasury bills
91-dayn/v — last auction yield not published todayEGX/CBE closed 23 Jul; prior week auctions not retrieved
182-dayn/v — last auction yield not published todayEGX/CBE closed 23 Jul
273-dayn/v — last auction yield not published todayEGX/CBE closed 23 Jul
364-dayn/v — last auction yield not published todayEGX/CBE closed 23 Jul
Treasury bonds
3-yearn/v — not retrieved today
5-yearn/v — not retrieved todayCBE holiday
10-yearn/v — not retrieved todayCBE holiday
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.61%
1-year UST4.11%
2-year UST4.31%
3-year UST4.34%
5-year UST4.41%
10-year UST4.67%
30-year UST5.15%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.18%
United States (as of 22 Jul 2026)
Fed funds target Unchanged; next decision 29 Jul 2026; 85.6% probability of hold per CME3.50–3.75%
SOFR overnight~3.58%
3-month Term SOFR (CME)~3.62%
1-year UST Approximate; long-end yields rising on Iran/oil shock~3.85%
2-year UST Approximate~4.00%
3-year UST Approximate~4.10%
5-year UST Approximate~4.20%
10-year UST Yahoo Finance ^CBOE 10yr ref 4.391 on 22 Jul; 30-yr near 4.90% per StockMarketWatch~4.39%
30-year UST StockMarketWatch data Jul 2026~4.90%
Euro Area (as of 22 Jul 2026)
ECB deposit facility rate Raised 25bps in Jun 2026; ECB Governing Council meeting scheduled 23 Jul 20262.25%
ECB main refinancing rate (MRO) Jun 2026 hike2.40%
ECB marginal lending rate Jun 2026 hike2.65%
€STR (overnight)~2.14%
EURIBOR 3M Published daily ~11:00 CET; approximately 2.3–2.5% rangen/v — exact EMMI print not retrieved today
EURIBOR 6M Approximately 2.4–2.6% rangen/v — exact EMMI print not retrieved today
EURIBOR 12M Approximately 2.5–2.7% rangen/v — exact EMMI print not retrieved today
United Kingdom (as of 22 Jul 2026)
BoE Bank Raten/v — not retrieved today
SONIA (overnight) Tracks BoE Bank Rate closelyn/v — not retrieved today
10-year Gilt yield UK political transition and oil spike likely keeping yields elevatedn/v — not retrieved today
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP~49.74n/v
EUR / EGPn/vn/v
GBP / EGPn/vn/v
SAR / EGPn/vn/v
EUR / USD~1.140n/v
GBP / USD~1.340n/v
USD / JPY~161n/v
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD 22 Jul spot (LiteFinance); down ~10% in July from $4,600+ highs as oil shock weighs; 30yr UST near 4.90% capping upside▼ $4,138.84
Brent Crude 22 Jul settle (Trading Economics); +3.43% on 22 Jul; 11th round of US strikes vs Iran + Houthi Red Sea threats▲ $94.13
WTI Crude 22 Jul close (CNBC); +~3%; Strait of Hormuz disruption risk premium embedded▲ $86.83
Copper Exact LME/COMEX print not retrieved today— n/v
05

Global Economy

Geopolitics · US-Iran

US carries out 11th consecutive day of strikes on Iran; oil tops $94

(22 Jul) The US completed its 11th straight round of strikes against Iran, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying Iran is 'not serious about talks.' Brent crude surged 3.4% to $94.07/bbl — its highest in over a month — while WTI rose ~3% to $86.83. The move rattled equity markets globally, with the S&P 500 ending marginally lower at 7,498.96.

Read full article → CNBC
AI Earnings · Alphabet/Big Tech

Alphabet's higher-than-expected capex revives AI-spending debate; Nasdaq 100 futures recover

(22–23 Jul) Nasdaq 100 futures erased earlier losses sparked by Alphabet's higher-than-expected capital spending plan as investors shifted to pricing in AI-infrastructure demand. MSCI Asia-Pacific gained 1%, led by South Korean chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix (+3%+ each). Markets now await Microsoft, Meta and Amazon results for confirmation that hyperscaler AI capex is delivering returns.

Read full article → Bloomberg
UK Politics · Markets

New UK PM Andy Burnham names John Healey Chancellor; defense-spend bet lifts FTSE

(21 Jul) In a surprise move, newly minted Prime Minister Andy Burnham appointed John Healey — who had recently resigned as defence secretary citing insufficient security spending — as his Chancellor. Investors interpreted the appointment as a signal of higher UK defence outlays, pushing the FTSE 100 modestly higher despite global oil headwinds.

Read full article → CNBC
Energy · Iran Oil Sanctions

US revokes waiver on Iranian oil sales after Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks

(7 Jul) The US carried out a new round of strikes on Iran targeting more than 80 sites and revoked a waiver allowing new sales of Iranian oil, further imperiling a truce agreement following a series of ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The move contributed to the persistent $85–$95 Brent range that has defined July trading.

Read full article → Bloomberg
US Macro · Fed

Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%; July 29 decision in focus with 85.6% probability of hold

(22 Jul) The Federal Reserve has maintained its fed funds target at 3.50–3.75%, accumulating 175bps of cuts since September 2024. CME FedWatch assigns an 85.6% probability to a hold at the 29 July meeting. Markets are watching initial jobless claims (23 Jul) and Manufacturing/Services PMI (24 Jul) as key pre-decision data points.

Read full article → LiteFinance · HC Securities
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Real GDP growth
4.2%
FY2025/26 estimate
Headline inflation (CAPMAS urban)
12.2%
-0.8pp m/m
Net FX reserves (NIR)
$55.07bn
+$3.62bn H1 2026
CBE overnight deposit rate
19.00%
0bps — 4th hold
Remittances (Jul 25–May 26)
$43.1bn
+31.2% y/y
Suez Canal Economic Zone
Record revenue
FY2025/26
CBE · MPC

CBE holds all four policy rates for a fourth consecutive time; July 23 is a bank holiday

(9 Jul) The Monetary Policy Committee kept the overnight deposit rate at 19%, lending at 20%, main operation and discount rates at 19.5% — its fourth straight hold. The CBE cited upside inflation risks from potential fuel-price hikes linked to elevated Brent oil. Amwal Al-Ghad reported the CBE declared 23 July a bank holiday, with markets and treasury operations suspended.

Read full article → Egypt Today · Amwal Al-Ghad
Macro · NIR

Egypt's net international reserves hit record $55.07bn at end-June, up $3.6bn in H1 2026

(18 Jul) Net international reserves reached a record $55.072bn in June 2026, up from $51.452bn at end-December 2025, driven by surging remittances, FDI inflows, and recovering portfolio investment. The CBE attributed the sharp June jump partly to gold price gains and the successful rebound of diaspora transfers.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt · Zawya
CBE · Inflation

Egypt's urban headline CPI slows to 12.2% in June (CAPMAS); CBE core edges up to 14.3%

(9 Jul) CAPMAS reported annual urban headline inflation at 12.2% in June 2026, down from 13% in May, as transport and food pressures eased. However, the CBE's urban measure remained elevated at 14.3% (June) versus 14.6% in May, while core CPI ticked up to 14.3% from 13.8%. Monthly CPI recorded a negative 0.4% print in June — the first monthly deflation this year.

Read full article → CBE · Arab Finance
Remittances

CBE: remittances from Egyptians abroad hit $43.1bn over 11 months, up 31.2% y/y

(9 Jul) The CBE announced that remittances from Egyptians working abroad reached approximately $43.1bn over the July 2025–May 2026 period, compared with $32.8bn in the same period a year earlier — a 31.2% surge. Monthly remittances in May 2026 alone stood at $3.9bn, up 13.5% y/y, remaining Egypt's largest single source of foreign currency.

Read full article → CBE · Daily News Egypt
EGX · Privatisation

20 of 30 state-owned companies now temporarily listed on EGX under divestment programme

(13 Jul) Prime Minister Madbouly confirmed that 20 of the 30 companies covered by the state asset-divestment programme have secured temporary EGX listings — 17 public-business-sector firms and 3 petroleum companies — with technical procedures continuing for the remaining 10. Temporary listing is a pre-IPO regulatory step and does not yet allow trading.

Read full article → bne IntelliNews
EGX · IPO Pipeline

Plans to sell 20% stake in Misr Life Insurance (~EGP 14bn) headline next privatisation tranche

(22 Jul) Egypt is preparing to unveil a new tranche of EGX listings under its ongoing privatisation programme, with the upcoming roster expected to feature around 20 companies. A 20% stake sale in state-owned Misr Life Insurance — expected to raise approximately EGP 14bn (~$277mn) — is among the highlighted transactions, alongside an additional stake in Misr El Gadida for Housing and Development.

Read full article → Global Finance Magazine · EnterpriseAM
EGX · Petroleum IPOs

ENPPI, ELAB and PMS secure temporary EGX listings; 10-company petroleum IPO programme underway

(Late Jun) Engineering for Petroleum and Process Industries (ENPPI), Egyptian Linear Alkyl Benzene Company (ELAB), and Petroleum Marine Services (PMS) received official temporary listings on the EGX. These three are part of a broader programme to list up to 10 state-owned petroleum companies, with PM Madbouly and Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi having reviewed the plan in early July.

Read full article → Egypt Oil & Gas
EGX · Market

EGX30 eases 0.1% on 22 Jul (holiday 23 Jul); +28.9% YTD; turnover EGP 12.6bn

(22 Jul) The EGX30 fell 0.1% at Wednesday's close on turnover of EGP 12.6bn — 36.3% above the 90-day average — with regional investors as the sole net buyers. Top gainers were Orascom Development (+2.9%), Valmore Holding (+2.4%) and Raya Holding (+2.4%). The Egyptian Exchange is closed on 23 July following a CBE-declared bank holiday.

Read full article → EnterpriseAM
External · Suez Canal

Suez Canal Economic Zone posts record revenue in FY2025/26 despite Red Sea tensions

(16 Jul) The Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) recorded its highest-ever annual revenue in FY2025/26, according to a report cited by Ports Europe. The result is notable given continuing Houthi disruptions to Red Sea shipping; SCZone industrial diversification and zone-related fees have partially offset the canal transit revenue shortfall caused by the conflict.

Read full article → Ports Europe via NewNow
IMF · Balance of Payments

CBE publishes BoP data for Jul–Mar FY2025/26; remittances and FDI strengthen external accounts

(12 Jul) The CBE published balance of payments performance data for July 2025–March 2026. The Q1 2026 monetary policy report showed NIR reached $52.8bn by end-March and the capital/financial account recorded a net inflow of $6.8bn in Q4 2025 — its highest since Q2 2024 — supported by FDI and portfolio inflows, while M2 growth averaged 18.5% in Q1 2026, the lowest since Q4 2021.

Read full article → CBE
Egypt · Macro Risk

Analysts warn fuel-price hike possible if global oil conflict persists; CBE upside-risk language remains

(16 Jul) Egyptian economists warned that fuel prices may rise if global conflicts keep Brent elevated above $90/bbl. The CBE's July 9 hold statement explicitly cited upside risks to its 7% (±2%) Q4 2026 inflation target from potential domestic fuel and electricity tariff adjustments. HC Securities previously estimated a 100bps rate hike in Q3 2026 was no longer off the table if inflation returns to 18%.

Read full article → Egypt Independent · HC Securities
Egypt · FRA / Regulation

FRA reviews registrations from 30+ debt collection companies; life insurers must obtain credit reports for applicants

(21 Jul) The Financial Regulatory Authority has been reviewing registration applications from more than 30 debt collection companies as part of its NBFI licensing framework expansion. Separately, FRA has required life insurance companies to obtain a credit report for any applicant seeking insurance — a consumer-protection measure aligned with CBE guidance to the banking sector on healthcare initiatives issued in early July.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt