Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Global equities rallied on AI/chip revival and US-Iran ceasefire diplomacy hopes, with the S&P 500 up +0.89% and Nikkei +3.26%, even as oil held near one-month highs and Fed rate-hike risk for September kept gold range-bound near $4,070.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 500~7,509+0.89%Dow Jones IA~52,224+0.74%Nasdaq Composite~25,837+1.29%FTSE 10010,484.71-0.12%DAX25,054.16+0.23%CAC 408,373.47-0.36%Gold~$4,070–4,079Brent~$91.10USD/EGP~52.42flatEUR/USD~1.141est.CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 500~7,509+0.89%Dow Jones IA~52,224+0.74%Nasdaq Composite~25,837+1.29%FTSE 10010,484.71-0.12%DAX25,054.16+0.23%CAC 408,373.47-0.36%Gold~$4,070–4,079Brent~$91.10USD/EGP~52.42flatEUR/USD~1.141est.CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
~51,761
+~1.8% (Jul 21 session)
S&P 500
~7,509
+0.89%
Gold
~$4,070–4,079
USD / EGP
~52.42
flat
Brent
~$91.10
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
~51,761 (intraday open Jul 22; prior close ~50,500 end-Jun)
▲ +340% 5y (EGP terms)
8,19420,17832,16144,14456,128 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-062026-022026-06-302026-07-22 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
~52.42 (interbank sell; Mar 2026 all-time high 52.90)
▲ +234% 5y
12.7323.4934.2545.0155.77 2021-122022-122023-122024-032025-022026-032026-03-27 USD / EGP
CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit) · %
19.00%
— -825bps since Apr 2025 easing cycle
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 2021-122022-122023-122025-012025-042026-02-122026-07-09 CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit)
S&P 500 · index
~7,509 (Jul 22 est. +0.89% on 7,443.28 prior close)
▲ +57% 5y / +8.7% YTD
3,5444,6185,6926,7667,840 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-072026-07-142026-07-212026-07-22 S&P 500
Fed Funds Target · %
3.50–3.75% (mid 3.625%)
— Held Jun 17; next decision Jul 29
-0.3%1.2%2.8%4.3%5.8% 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-092026-06-17 Fed Funds Target
Gold · $/oz
~$4,070–4,079 (Jul 22 intraday)
▲ ATH $5,602 Jan 29 2026; -27% from ATH; +18.7% past 12m
1,5222,6173,7134,8095,904 2021-122022-122023-122024-122026-01-292026-07-21 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Jul 22 intraday gain; prior close 7,443.28 (Jul 20). Tech/chip-led rally.~7,509+0.89%
Dow Jones IA Jul 22 intraday est. +0.74% on prior close 51,839.26 (Jul 20).~52,224+0.74%
Nasdaq Composite Jul 22 intraday est. +1.29% on prior close 25,508.07 (Jul 20). Large-cap tech led.~25,837+1.29%
FTSE 100 Yahoo Finance delayed quote Jul 22; prior day context: FTSE +0.34% on Jul 21 (10,560).10,484.71-0.12%
DAX Yahoo Finance delayed quote Jul 22.25,054.16+0.23%
CAC 40 Yahoo Finance delayed quote Jul 22.8,373.47-0.36%
Nikkei 225 Jul 21 close (Japan holiday Monday, trading resumed Tue). Chip/AI stocks led: Kioxia +17.2%, Advantest +7.7%.66,232.19+3.26%
Hang Seng Yahoo Finance delayed Jul 22.22,881.02-0.63%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 Investing.com open Jul 22: 51,760.97; range 51,818–52,394 intraday. Prior session (Jul 21) +1.8% per Enterprise, turnover EGP 9.1bn. Index +19.5% YTD.~51,761+~1.8% (Jul 21 session)
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit rate — Unchanged Jul 9 2026 (3rd consecutive hold); 825bps of cuts Apr 2025–Feb 2026.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending rate — Unchanged Jul 9 2026.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit rate19.00%Unchanged Jul 9 2026 (3rd consecutive hold); 825bps of cuts Apr 2025–Feb 2026
Overnight lending rate20.00%Unchanged Jul 9 2026
Main operation rate19.50%Unchanged Jul 9 2026
Discount rate19.50%Unchanged Jul 9 2026
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.57%
1-year UST4.08%
2-year UST4.26%
3-year UST4.31%
5-year UST4.37%
10-year UST4.63%
30-year UST5.13%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.18%
United Kingdom
BoE Bank Rate Held Jun 18 2026 in 7–2 vote (two members voted for 4.00% hike); next decision Jul 30 20263.75%
SONIA overnight~3.69%
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP~52.42flat
EUR / EGP~59.83est.
GBP / EGP~69.25est.
SAR / EGP~13.98est.
EUR / USD~1.141est.
GBP / USD~1.321est.
USD / JPY163.19+0.42%
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD Jul 22 intraday; rose >1% on Tue Jul 21 as mediators push US-Iran ceasefire. ATH $5,602 Jan 29 2026. +18.7% past 12m.▲ ~$4,070–4,079
Brent Crude Trading Economics Jul 21 2026: rose to $91.10, +2.11% on day. US strikes on Iran Day 10; tanker hit near Strait of Hormuz; Houthis threaten Saudi maritime traffic.▲ ~$91.10
WTI Crude Investing.com Jul 22 intraday range $81.41–$83.22. Up ~$18/bbl vs year-ago.▲ ~$82.30–83.22
05

Global Economy

Geopolitics · Iran War

US conducts 10th consecutive day of strikes on Iran; Houthi maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia rattles oil markets

(21 Jul) Washington carried out its tenth consecutive day of strikes on Iran and President Trump vowed Tehran 'will pay' for attacks that killed American soldiers. Meanwhile Yemen's Houthi militants threatened to block Saudi maritime traffic in the Red Sea, prompting at least one Saudi crude tanker to reverse course. A tanker carrying oil products was reportedly struck near the Strait of Hormuz, keeping Brent near $91/bbl. Separately, mediators are working to bring Washington and Tehran back to the table, with reports of a possible 10-day truce to reopen Strait of Hormuz shipping routes.

Read full article → Trading Economics · Bloomberg · CNBC
Equities · Tech/AI

Chip stocks extend global rally on AI optimism; S&P 500 +0.89%, Nikkei +3.26% on Jul 21–22

(22 Jul) U.S. stock indices rose with the S&P 500 up 0.89%, the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.29%, and the Dow +0.74% on July 22, as large-cap tech stocks led the charge. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 jumped 3.26% to 66,232 on Jul 21, recovering most of the prior week's losses after chipmakers Kioxia (+17.2%), Advantest (+7.7%) and SoftBank (+6%) surged. Bloomberg noted chip stocks extended a global rally as investors renewed bets the AI trade has further room to run.

Read full article → KuCoin · Trading Economics · Bloomberg
Central Banks · Fed

Fed widely expected to hold at Jul 29; markets now price >60% chance of September rate hike as oil inflation risks mount

(21 Jul) US Treasury yields climbed sharply this week with markets now pricing about a 55-60% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, up from ~51% a day earlier, amid concerns that Middle East energy prices could reinforce inflationary pressures. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at the July 29 meeting. Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, held rates unanimously at 3.50–3.75% on June 17, the first meeting of his tenure.

Read full article → Trading Economics · LiteFinance · CambridgeCurrencies
ECB · Decision Tomorrow

ECB rate decision due July 23 as euro-area inflation hits 3.2% — markets price 50% chance of another hike

(21 Jul) The European Central Bank holds its July 23 rate decision meeting. The ECB raised its deposit facility rate to 2.25% on June 11 — its first hike since September 2023 — after euro area HICP rose to 3.2% in May, the highest since September 2023. Markets price roughly a 50% chance of a further hike in September. The decision tomorrow is the key near-term event risk for European rates and the euro.

Read full article → CambridgeCurrencies
US Earnings · Tech

Tesla, Alphabet, Intel earnings due this week — key test for AI valuations after chip selloff

(21 Jul) Earnings season gathers pace this week with reports from Tesla, Alphabet, Intel and several major industrial and consumer companies. After the prior week's sharp rotation out of AI-related stocks — the VanEck Semiconductor ETF dropped ~9% in one week — investors are looking for evidence that earnings can justify elevated valuations. The S&P 500 lost 1.6% and Nasdaq slid 2.9% in the week ending Jul 18 before this week's recovery.

Read full article → TheStreet · CNBC
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Real GDP growth (FY25/26 H1)
5.3%
+1.4pp y/y
Headline inflation (Jun 2026)
14.3%
-2.2pp m/m from May (16.5%→14.3%)
Net FX Reserves
~$51.5bn
+$4.4bn in 2025
CBE overnight deposit rate
19.00%
Unchanged (3rd consecutive hold)
Remittances (Jul–Jan FY25/26)
$25.6bn
+28.4% y/y
Current account deficit (H1 FY25/26)
$9.5bn
-13.6% y/y narrowing
CBE · Rates Hold

CBE holds all four corridor rates unchanged for third consecutive meeting

(9 Jul) The CBE's Monetary Policy Committee kept the overnight deposit rate at 19%, the overnight lending rate at 20%, and the main operation and discount rates at 19.5% — a third straight hold. The CBE said June headline inflation fell to 14.3% y-o-y (from 16.5% in May), turning negative m-o-m at -0.4%, though core ticked up to 14.3% on an unfavorable base effect. The bank warned inflation will temporarily accelerate in Q3 2026 before resuming its downward path toward single digits in H2 2027.

Read full article → Egypt Today · EnterpriseAM
IMF · Growth Upgrade

IMF upgrades Egypt's 2026/27 GDP growth to 4.6% in July WEO update

(9 Jul) The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook update projected Egypt's real GDP growth at 4.6% in FY2026/27, up 0.4pp from the April estimate, citing positive momentum from structural reforms and improved macroeconomic indicators. The estimated growth rate for the recently concluded FY2025/26 was 4.4%. The IMF cautioned that the entire baseline hinges on the US-Iran diplomatic track and assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopening began mid-July 2026.

Read full article → Ahram Online · Egypt Daily News · economy Middle East
IMF · EFF Programme

IMF completed 5th & 6th EFF reviews in Feb 2026, unlocking ~$2bn; programme extended to Dec 2026

(26 Feb) The IMF Executive Board completed the combined fifth and sixth reviews of Egypt's EFF arrangement and the first review under the RSF, enabling Egypt to draw approximately $2bn under the EFF and $273mn under the RSF, bringing total purchases under both facilities to about $5.2bn. Egypt's 46-month EFF extended through December 15, 2026. The IMF noted tight monetary and fiscal policies with exchange rate flexibility have helped restore macroeconomic stability, reduce inflation, and strengthen the external position.

Read full article → IMF
EGX · Performance

EGX30 rose 1.8% on Jul 21 on turnover EGP 9.1bn; index +19.5% YTD; closed Q2 at 50,500 (+11.4%)

(21 Jul) The EGX30 rose 1.8% on Jul 21 on turnover of EGP 9.1bn, 35.3% above the 90-day average. Regional investors were the sole net buyers. Top gainers: Egypt Aluminum (+6.6%), Misr Cement (+6.6%), and Raya Holding (+6.3%). The index is up 19.5% YTD. The benchmark closed Q2 2026 at ~50,500 points, up 11.4% over the quarter, with travel and education the standout sectors, though June saw a 4.12% pullback on profit-taking.

Read full article → EnterpriseAM
External · Remittances

Egyptian remittances up 28.4% y/y to $25.6bn in first 7 months of FY25/26; monthly Jan hit $3.5bn

(24 Mar) The CBE reported remittances from Egyptians working abroad rose 28.4% y-o-y in July–January 2025/26 to approximately $25.6bn, up from ~$20bn in the same period a year earlier. Monthly inflows in January reached $3.5bn (+21% y/y). The strong trend follows a 40.5% surge in full-year 2025 to $41.5bn versus $29.6bn in 2024. Separately, a CBE-cited nine-month figure (to Mar 2026) shows transfers rose >30% y/y to a record $34.9bn with an all-time monthly high of $5.5bn in March.

Read full article → Ahram Online · CBE · Middle East Observer
External · Suez / SCZone

Suez Canal Economic Zone posts record revenue in FY2025/26; attracted $7.1bn in investments

(16 Jul) The Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) posted record revenue in FY2025/26. The SCZone attracted approximately $7.1bn in investments during the fiscal year, with cumulative investments reaching ~$16bn. More than 205 factories are currently operating within the zone, with another 172 projects under development across renewable energy, automotive, chemicals and logistics. Suez Canal Authority revenues are expected to recover to ~$4.6bn in 2026, up from $4.1bn in 2025, after falling sharply from a record $10.2bn in 2023 due to Houthi disruptions.

Read full article → NewsNow/Ports Europe · Middle East Observer
External · BoP

Current account deficit narrows 13.6% to $9.5bn in H1 FY25/26 on remittances and tourism boom

(Apr) Egypt's current account deficit narrowed 13.6% to $9.5bn in the first half of the fiscal year (Jul–Dec 2025), driven by surging remittances and a boom in tourism receipts. Remittances jumped 29.6% y-o-y to $22.1bn in the period, providing a substantial buffer. The World Bank noted GDP grew 5.3% in H1 FY26 reflecting strong performance in non-oil manufacturing, Suez Canal gradual resumption, tourism and communications, though extractives remained a drag on arrears.

Read full article → EnterpriseAM · World Bank
Inflation · Outlook

CBE: headline inflation 14.3% in Jun 2026, expected to accelerate temporarily in Q3 before single digits in H2 2027

(9 Jul) Egypt's annual headline inflation declined to 14.3% in June 2026, down from 16.5% in May, while monthly inflation recorded a decrease of 0.4%. Annual core inflation also stood at 14.3%. The CBE said inflation is expected to temporarily rise during Q3 2026 due to base effects, but the increase is expected to be less pronounced than previously forecast. The bank reiterated that inflation will resume its downward trajectory after Q3 and return to single-digit levels by H2 2027, targeting 7% (±2pp) by Q4 2026.

Read full article → economy Middle East · EnterpriseAM
Egypt · CBE Bank Holiday

CBE announces July 23 bank holiday

(16 Jul) Egypt's Central Bank of Egypt announced a bank holiday on July 23, 2026. This comes one day ahead of the ECB's July 23 rate decision meeting, and in the context of the CBE's own next MPC meeting not yet scheduled for August. Banks and financial institutions will be closed.

Read full article → NewsNow / Amwal Al Ghad
Egypt · Fuel/Subsidy Risk

Economist warns fuel prices may rise if global conflicts persist; Iran war spillover key risk

(16 Jul) An Egyptian economist warned that domestic fuel prices may rise if global conflicts — particularly the US-Iran war — persist, given Egypt's exposure to energy import costs. Brent crude rose to ~$91/bbl this week. The IMF Jul 2026 WEO projected a 32% spike in crude oil prices in 2026 (global petroleum index averaging $89/bbl), with global headline inflation rising from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026. The risk of additional fuel price hikes or electricity tariff increases could push Egypt's inflation toward 18%, potentially triggering a CBE policy response.

Read full article → Egypt Independent / NewsNow · EnterpriseAM
Egypt · World Bank

World Bank backs expansion of Egypt's universal health insurance; FDI and portfolio inflows firm

(16 Jul) The World Bank backed the expansion of Egypt's universal health insurance programme. Separately, the World Bank noted that Egypt's macroeconomic recovery in H1 FY26 was broad-based, with non-oil manufacturing benefiting from improved FX access, and that market confidence continued to improve as evidenced by successful external issuances, FDI inflows, and record nonresident inflows into domestic debt markets, though the Middle East conflict raises risks to capital flows.

Read full article → NewsNow / Amwal Al Ghad · World Bank
Egypt · External Transformation

Remittances + tourism + Suez revenues generated >$60bn in FX earnings in past year — structural shift in Egypt's external accounts

(Jun 3) Together, remittances, tourism receipts and Suez Canal revenues generated more than $60bn in foreign-currency earnings over the past year, highlighting a structural shift in Egypt's external financing base and reducing dependence on any single source. Remittances rose >30% y-o-y in the first nine months of FY25/26 to a record $34.9bn, while Suez Canal Authority revenues are expected to reach ~$4.6bn in 2026 as shipping activity gradually improves from the Houthi-disrupted lows.

Read full article → Middle East Observer