Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Tuesday, 21 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Risk assets mixed as escalating US–Iran strikes and a 10-day ceasefire proposal create whipsaw moves in oil, bonds and equities, with Egypt's EGX 30 bucking the trend to close +1.21% on domestic reform momentum.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,443.28-0.19%Dow Jones51,839.26-0.59%Nasdaq Composite25,508.07-0.05%FTSE 10010,530-0.71%DAX24,8320.00%CAC 408,340.11+0.02%Gold$4,022Brent$87.72USD/EGP51.03-0.18%EUR/USD1.143n/vCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,443.28-0.19%Dow Jones51,839.26-0.59%Nasdaq Composite25,508.07-0.05%FTSE 10010,530-0.71%DAX24,8320.00%CAC 408,340.11+0.02%Gold$4,022Brent$87.72USD/EGP51.03-0.18%EUR/USD1.143n/vCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
52,679.40
+1.21%
S&P 500
7,443.28
-0.19%
Gold
$4,022
USD / EGP
51.03
-0.18%
Brent
$87.72
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
52,679
▲ +358% 5y
6,37018,80531,24043,67456,109 20212022202320242025-H12026-07-21 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
51.03
▲ +225% 5y
12.8723.1233.3643.6153.86 202120222023-H1202420252026-07-20 USD / EGP
CBE Policy Rate · %
19.00%
▼ -825bps since Apr 2025
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 20212022202320242025-Apr2026-02-12 CBE Policy Rate
S&P 500 · index
7,443
▲ +56% 5y
3,5524,5975,6426,6867,731 202120222023202420252026-07-20 S&P 500
Fed Funds · %
3.625%
▼ eff. rate; target 3.50–3.75%
-0.3%1.2%2.8%4.3%5.8% 202120222023202420252026-07 Fed Funds
Gold · $/oz
$4,022
▲ +120% 5y
1,6442,2822,9213,5604,198 20212022202320242025-H22026-07-21 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Jul 20 close; US futures +0.1–0.7% pre-open Jul 217,443.28-0.19%
Dow Jones Jul 20 close; led lower by Merck, Boeing51,839.26-0.59%
Nasdaq Composite Jul 20 close; tech near flat25,508.07-0.05%
FTSE 100 Jul 20 close est.; domestic political headwinds10,530-0.71%
DAX Jul 20 close; treading water amid Iran uncertainty24,8320.00%
CAC 40 Jul 20 close; marginal gain after choppy session8,340.11+0.02%
Nikkei 225 Prior session; chipmakers under pressure64,141.12-4.03%
Hang Seng Prior session; risk-off on geopolitics24,562.24-1.78%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 Jul 21 close; outperforming EM peers on privatisation news52,679.40+1.21%
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit — Unchanged; held Jul 9 2026 — 3rd consecutive hold.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending — Unchanged; corridor ceiling.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit19.00%Unchanged; held Jul 9 2026 — 3rd consecutive hold
Overnight lending20.00%Unchanged; corridor ceiling
Main operation19.50%Unchanged
Discount rate19.50%Unchanged
Treasury bills
91-dayn/v
182-dayn/v
273-dayn/v
364-dayn/v
Treasury bonds
3-yearn/v
5-yearn/v
10-yearn/v
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.59%
1-year UST4.03%
2-year UST4.21%
3-year UST4.25%
5-year UST4.33%
10-year UST4.60%
30-year UST5.11%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.18%
United Kingdom
BoE Bank Raten/v
SONIA overnightn/v
10-year Gilt yieldn/v
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP51.03-0.18%
EUR / EGP58.34+0.03%
GBP / EGP68.60-0.03%
SAR / EGP13.65+0.69%
EUR / USD1.143n/v
GBP / USD1.344n/v
USD / JPYn/vn/v
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD Jul 21 (Trading Economics); steadying above $4,000 as US-Iran conflict stokes inflation fears and 55% Sep Fed-hike probability priced in▲ $4,022
Brent Crude Jul 20 close (Trading Economics); pulled from $91 high as Iran ceasefire talks capped upside; +30% from Jul lows▼ $87.72
WTI Crude Jul 21 (Trading Economics); five-week high; mediation proposals offset fresh US strikes— $82.43
Copper— n/v
05

Global Economy

Energy · Geopolitics

US conducts 10th consecutive night of strikes on Iran; Brent tops $90 before ceasefire hopes cap rally

(21 Jul) Brent oil slipped after surging nearly 6% over the previous two sessions as traders weighed continued US–Iran hostilities against a reported 10-day ceasefire proposal from mediators. WTI traded near $83/bbl — its highest closing price since mid-June — while Tehran said negotiations could resume if aligned with Iran's national interests. The conflict has expanded to attacks on Kuwait's oil facilities and vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining a significant geopolitical risk premium in crude prices.

Read full article → Bloomberg · CNBC · Trading Economics
US · Macro / Monetary Policy

Fed rate-hike probability climbs to 55% for September as oil-driven inflation fears mount

(21 Jul) US Treasury yields climbed sharply over the week, with markets now pricing roughly a 55% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, up from 47% a week earlier, driven by oil-linked inflation concerns. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack joined other policymakers flagging persistent inflation risks. The effective Fed funds rate stands at 3.63%, with the current target range at 3.50–3.75%. A December hike is now seen with an ~80% probability.

Read full article → Trading Economics · StreetStats
Asia · Equities

Asian equities rose for first time in four days, led by chipmakers awaiting megacap earnings

(21 Jul) Asian equities rose for the first time in four sessions, led by chipmakers, as investors looked to megacap earnings for clues on whether the AI-driven rally can be sustained. Oil fell slightly in Asian trading, providing modest relief to inflation-sensitive markets. The rally was tempered by geopolitical uncertainty over US–Iran hostilities.

Read full article → Bloomberg
Europe · ECB

ECB hike odds at 70% for September as Iran-war oil surge outweighs dovish Sintra signals

(20 Jul) Markets are now pricing a 70% probability of a September ECB rate hike, reversing the more dovish signals from ECB officials at the early-July Sintra forum. The ECB raised its deposit facility rate by 25bps to 2.25% in June 2026 — its first increase since 2023 — citing surging energy costs from Middle East disruptions. Eurozone headline inflation was revised to 3.0% for 2026.

Read full article → Trading Economics
Middle East · Oil Infrastructure

Iran attacks Kuwait oil facility and vessels in Strait of Hormuz; shipping near halt

(20 Jul) Kuwait Petroleum Corp. confirmed an Iranian strike hit one of its oil facilities over the weekend, while Iran intercepted four vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The US military reported the death of a third service member. Commercial traffic through the strait remains severely disrupted. Brent prices had surged about 30% from their July lows before pulling back on ceasefire talks.

Read full article → Bloomberg · Trading Economics
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Real GDP growth
5.0%
Q1 FY2025/26 YoY
Headline inflation (urban, CBE)
14.3%
-0.3pp m/m
Net FX reserves
$55.07bn
+~$2bn m/m
CBE overnight deposit rate
19.00%
Unchanged
Remittances (11-month total)
$43.1bn
+~30% YoY
Suez Canal Economic Zone
Record revenue
FY2025/26
CBE · Monetary Policy

CBE holds all key rates for third consecutive meeting at July 9 MPC

(9 Jul) The CBE Monetary Policy Committee kept the overnight deposit rate at 19%, overnight lending at 20%, main operation and discount rates at 19.5% — a third consecutive hold. The CBE cited ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and elevated inflation risks from the Iran conflict. Annual urban inflation eased to 14.3% in June from 14.6% in May, while CAPMAS headline CPI was 12.2% in June. Goldman Sachs projects 200bps of rate hikes in Q3 2026 if inflation pressures persist.

Read full article → Egypt Today · CBE · Trading Economics
CBE · FX Reserves

Egypt's net international reserves hit record $55.07bn at end-June 2026

(8 Jul) The CBE announced that Egypt's net international reserves reached a provisional $55,072.3 million at end-June 2026. Prime Minister Madbouly noted reserves rose by about $2 billion in a single month, calling it 'a good indicator of the stability of the Egyptian economy.' The milestone follows record remittance inflows and strong tourism receipts.

Read full article → CBE · The National
CBE · Remittances

Remittances from Egyptians abroad hit $43.1bn over 11 months of FY2025/26

(9 Jul) The CBE reported that remittances from Egyptians working abroad recorded USD 43.1 billion over the first eleven months of FY2025/26 (July 2025–May 2026), representing more than a 30% increase over the prior year. Remittances remain Egypt's largest single source of foreign currency, bolstering FX reserves and supporting the EGP.

Read full article → CBE
IMF · Programme

IMF staff-level agreement in June unlocks ~$1.6bn; EFF extended to Dec 2026

(16 Jul) Egypt's foreign reserves exceeded $55 billion for the first time, as a staff-level agreement with the IMF reached in June could unlock approximately $1.6 billion, extending the EFF programme to December 2026. The IMF completed the 5th and 6th EFF reviews in February 2026, disbursing ~$2 billion. Egypt's EFF arrangement was approved in December 2022 and covers 46 months. Total disbursements under EFF and RSF now stand at approximately $5.2 billion.

Read full article → The National · IMF · Egypt Today
EGX · Privatisation

20 of 30 state companies now temporarily listed on EGX; petroleum sector next frontier

(13 Jul) Prime Minister Madbouly confirmed that 20 of the 30 companies in Egypt's privatisation programme have secured temporary listings on the EGX, comprising 17 public-business-sector firms and three petroleum companies. Technical procedures continue for the remaining 10. The government plans 4–5 full IPOs before end-2026. The petroleum sector — including plans to list up to 10 oil companies — is shaping up as the next major frontier for capital-market expansion.

Read full article → IntelliNews · Arab Finance
EGX · Performance

EGX 30 rises +1.21% to 52,679 on Jul 21, outperforming EM peers amid reform momentum

(21 Jul) The EGX 30 rose 1.21% to close at 52,679.40 — up over 61% in the past 12 months — outperforming most global emerging markets. The index is approaching its all-time high of 54,978 set on May 11 2026. Daily turnover has more than doubled over the past 2–3 years, underpinned by the state privatisation programme and rising foreign and Arab investor participation.

Read full article → Yahoo Finance · AGBI
Egypt · Inflation

Annual urban CPI eases to 14.3% in June; CAPMAS headline at 12.2% — third consecutive decline

(9 Jul) Egypt's annual urban headline CPI inflation eased to 14.3% in June 2026 from 14.6% in May, according to CBE data. CAPMAS reported a lower headline rate of 12.2% in June versus 13.0% in May. The monthly CPI recorded -0.4% in June — a deflation print — driven by seasonal food price declines. Annual core inflation (CBE measure) ticked up modestly to 14.3% from 13.8% in May, reflecting housing and utility costs.

Read full article → CBE · Zawya · Arab Finance
Egypt · Balance of Payments

CBE releases BoP performance for Jul–Mar FY2025/26

(12 Jul) The CBE released its Balance of Payments press release covering July 2025 through March 2026. The data shows continued improvement in Egypt's external position, supported by strong remittances ($43.1bn over 11 months), record tourism receipts, and non-resident inflows into local-currency debt instruments. The current account deficit has narrowed versus FY2024/25.

Read full article → CBE
Egypt · Energy / Oil Risk

Rising oil prices intensify pressure on Egypt's energy import bill; fuel price hike risk flagged

(16 Jul) Economists warn that the sustained surge in global oil prices — driven by US–Iran conflict — is intensifying pressure on Egypt's energy import bill, particularly during peak summer demand. Egypt raised fuel prices by 14–17% in March 2026; a further hike could be required if oil stays elevated, which would feed directly into transport and food inflation. An analyst noted that Egypt's economy 'remains remarkably sensitive to external pressures' and is 'at the mercy of geopolitics.'

Read full article → The National
SCZone · Infrastructure

Suez Canal Economic Zone posts record revenue in FY2025/26

(21 Jul) The Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) posted record revenue in FY2025/26, according to Ports Europe. The milestone comes despite ongoing disruptions to Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks — which have impacted transit volumes through the Suez Canal itself — as SCZone's industrial and manufacturing revenues offset the shipping disruption. The Houthis separately announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, raising new concerns for regional energy flows.

Read full article → Ports Europe / NewsNow
Egypt · Banking / ISO

Banks operating in Egypt adopt ISO 20022 standard for financial transfers

(21 Jun) All banks operating in Egypt adopted the international ISO 20022 standard for financial transfers, as announced by the CBE. The move aligns Egypt's banking infrastructure with global payment standards, facilitating cross-border transactions, improving remittance processing, and strengthening correspondent banking relationships — a key enabler of the country's $43bn+ annual remittance flows.

Read full article → CBE
IMF · Growth Forecast

IMF upgrades Egypt 2026 growth forecast to 4.6%; global disinflation stalls on oil spike

(Jul 2026) The IMF's July World Economic Outlook upgraded Egypt's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in 2025. However, the Fund flagged that global disinflation has stalled due to the US–Iran conflict, projecting a 32% spike in crude oil prices in 2026 and global headline inflation rising to 4.7%. The baseline forecast hinges on the Strait of Hormuz reopening from mid-July 2026 following an assumed diplomatic track.

Read full article → Egypt Daily News