Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Markets broadly rallied on cooler-than-expected US June CPI (3.5% vs 3.8% forecast), which tempered Fed rate-hike bets and lifted equities, gold, and Nikkei—even as Brent crude held above $85 on Trump's reinstated Strait of Hormuz blockade against Iran.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,543.59+0.38%Dow Jones52,508.27+0.02%Nasdaq Composite26,107.01+0.90%FTSE 10010,529.39+0.30%DAX25,147.03+0.13%CAC 408,366.85+0.03%Gold$4,050Brent$85.70USD/EGP50.69+0.90%EUR/USD~1.094n/aCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,543.59+0.38%Dow Jones52,508.27+0.02%Nasdaq Composite26,107.01+0.90%FTSE 10010,529.39+0.30%DAX25,147.03+0.13%CAC 408,366.85+0.03%Gold$4,050Brent$85.70USD/EGP50.69+0.90%EUR/USD~1.094n/aCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
52,608
+0.67%
S&P 500
7,543.59
+0.38%
Gold
$4,050
USD / EGP
50.69
+0.90%
Brent
$85.70
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
52,608
▲ +361% 5y
8,12520,06932,01443,95955,903 202120222023202420252026-07-13 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
50.69
▲ +222% 5y
12.8923.0733.2543.4353.61 20212022202320242025-H12026-07-14 USD / EGP
CBE Policy Rate (O/N Deposit) · %
19.00%
▼ -825bps since Apr 2025 easing cycle
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 20212023-032025-042026-022026-07-09 CBE Policy Rate (O/N Deposit)
S&P 500 · index
7,543.59
▲ +58% 5y
3,5444,6185,6926,7667,840 202120222023202420252026-07-14 S&P 500
Fed Funds Target · %
3.50–3.75%
▼ -175bps since Sep 2024 easing cycle
-0.3%1.2%2.8%4.3%5.8% 20212022202320242025-092026-07 Fed Funds Target
Gold · $/oz
$4,050
▲ +122% 5y
1,6462,2912,9373,5834,228 202120222023202420252026-07-14 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Close 14 Jul; boosted by semis + soft CPI7,543.59+0.38%
Dow Jones Close 14 Jul; IBM dragged -25%52,508.27+0.02%
Nasdaq Composite Close 14 Jul; semiconductor rebound26,107.01+0.90%
FTSE 100 14 Jul close per Yahoo Finance10,529.39+0.30%
DAX 14 Jul close per Yahoo Finance25,147.03+0.13%
CAC 40 14 Jul close per Yahoo Finance8,366.85+0.03%
Nikkei 225 15 Jul (Tokyo session) per Trading Economics; tech/AI stocks led68,300+0.90%
Hang Seng 14 Jul close per Yahoo Finance24,340.73+0.52%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 Last session Sun 13 Jul 2026 (EGX closed Wed 15 Jul — EGX trading week is Sun–Thu; 15 Jul is a Wednesday so markets are OPEN — last verified close 13 Jul)52,608+0.67%
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit rate — Held 9 Jul 2026 MPC — third consecutive hold.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending rate — Held 9 Jul 2026 MPC.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit rate19.00%Held 9 Jul 2026 MPC — third consecutive hold
Overnight lending rate20.00%Held 9 Jul 2026 MPC
Main operation rate19.50%Held 9 Jul 2026 MPC
Discount rate19.50%Held 9 Jul 2026 MPC
Treasury bills
182-day~25.1% (indicative)CBE offered EGP 50bn at 182-day on 9 Jul 2026; exact awarded yield not yet extracted
364-day~24.7% (indicative)CBE offered EGP 70bn at 364-day on 9 Jul 2026; HC Securities cited 12M T-bill yield ~24.7%
Treasury bonds
10-year EGP bond (indicative)~26.5%Secondary market estimate; CBE last updated secondary market data 16 Jun 2026
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.60%
1-year UST4.02%
2-year UST4.18%
3-year UST4.23%
5-year UST4.31%
10-year UST4.58%
30-year UST5.08%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.18%
United Kingdom
BoE Bank Rate~4.25%
SONIA (overnight)~4.20%
10-year Gilt yield sofrrate.com UK nominal par gilt yield, as of 13 Jul 20264.87%
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP50.69+0.90%
EUR / EGP~55.4n/a
GBP / EGP~65.1n/a
SAR / EGP~13.52n/a
EUR / USD~1.094n/a
GBP / USD~1.285n/a
USD / JPY~147.5n/a
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD Spot ~$4,050 on 15 Jul; markets.com intra-day high $4,084; soft US CPI reduced rate-hike bets▲ $4,050
Brent Crude · ICE Investing.com 15 Jul range 85.05–86.36; above $85 on Trump's Hormuz blockade reinstatement▲ $85.70
WTI Crude · NYMEX Investing.com 15 Jul range 72.61–75.08; Forbes cited Jul 14 open $78.08 (Sep contract)▲ $73.80
Copper · COMEX— ~$4.50/lb
05

Global Economy

US · Inflation / Fed

US June CPI slows to 3.5%, below forecast; Warsh holds firm on policy vigilance

(14 Jul) US annual CPI fell to 3.5% in June from 4.2% in May, missing the 3.8% consensus, aided by lower energy prices; monthly prices dropped 0.4%—the first MoM decline since 2020. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testified before Congress, reaffirming commitment to price stability without explicitly signalling hikes, leaving markets pricing roughly a 50% probability of a September hike.

Read full article → Trading Economics · CNBC
Geopolitics · Iran / Hormuz

Trump reinstates Hormuz blockade on Iranian vessels, drives oil above $85

(13–14 Jul) President Trump announced the US would reinstate its blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and seek a 20% reimbursement fee on all cargo transiting the waterway. Brent climbed above $85 for the first time in weeks, while Tehran declared the strait closed 'until further notice'—a claim rejected by US Central Command. The move rattled equity futures and lifted the 10-year UST yield toward 4.62%.

Read full article → CNBC · Trading Economics
US · Earnings / Tech

IBM tumbles 25% after Q2 profit warning; semiconductors rebound on CPI relief

(14 Jul) IBM warned that Q2 profits would fall short of expectations due to soft demand in software and infrastructure, dragging the Dow. By contrast, semiconductor stocks surged—the VanEck SMH ETF rose 2.5%—as the softer CPI print eased concerns about Fed tightening that had crushed the sector a session earlier.

Read full article → CNBC
Macro · IMF WEO Update

IMF raises global inflation forecast to 4.7% for 2026, upgrades Egypt growth to 4.6%

(9 Jul) The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projected a 32% spike in crude oil prices would push global headline inflation from 4.1% to 4.7% in 2026. Egypt was upgraded to 4.6% growth for 2026, outperforming a MENA region largely in contraction. The Fund cautioned central banks to maintain focus on price stability while rebuilding fiscal buffers.

Read full article → Ahram Online
Japan · Equities

Nikkei 225 climbs 0.9% to ~68,300 on 15 Jul; AI stocks lead rebound after soft US CPI

(15 Jul) Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced ~0.9% to above 68,300 on Wednesday, tracking Wall Street higher after weaker-than-expected US June inflation data reduced near-term Fed rate-hike expectations. Kioxia Holdings surged 6.7%, Lasertec jumped 6.9%, and Advantest gained 4.4%, with technology and AI-related stocks leading the advance.

Read full article → Trading Economics
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Headline inflation (Jun 2026)
14.3%
-0.3pp m/m
Real GDP growth (Q1 FY2025/26)
5.0% y/y
-0.3pp q/q
Net FX Reserves (end-Jun 2026)
US$55.07bn
+provisional
CBE O/N Deposit Rate
19.00%
Hold
Remittances (11M FY2025/26)
US$43.1bn
+~38% y/y
BoP overall deficit (Jul–Mar FY2025/26)
US$1.8bn
-2.9% y/y
CBE · Policy

CBE holds all four corridor rates for third consecutive MPC meeting

(9 Jul) The MPC kept the overnight deposit rate at 19.00%, overnight lending at 20.00%, main operation and discount rates at 19.50%—the third consecutive hold, pausing 825bps of cuts that ran April 2025 to February 2026. The committee cited geopolitical uncertainty, an expected Q3 2026 inflation uptick from base effects, and the need to maintain a positive real rate buffer for carry-trade inflows.

Read full article → Egypt Today · Daily News Egypt · CBE
CBE · Inflation

Egypt June CPI: headline inflation slows to 14.3%, monthly prices fall 0.4%

(9 Jul) Egypt's annual headline inflation declined to 14.3% in June 2026—the lowest since before the regional conflict began—while monthly CPI dropped 0.4%, the first monthly deflation in many months. Annual core inflation edged up slightly to 14.3% due to an unfavourable base effect, despite monthly core easing to 0.3%. The CBE still projects inflation will accelerate in Q3 2026.

Read full article → CBE · Daily News Egypt
CBE · Reserves

Egypt net international reserves reach $55.07bn at end-June 2026

(8 Jul) The CBE published provisional net international reserves of $55.072bn at the end of June 2026, compared with the $53.1bn reported in May. The recovery reflects improving FX inflows including carry-trade receipts, strong remittances, and rising tourism revenues despite regional tensions.

Read full article → CBE
CBE · Remittances

Egyptian worker remittances hit $43.1bn in eleven months of FY2025/26

(9 Jul) The CBE announced remittances from Egyptians working abroad reached a record $43.1bn over the first eleven months of FY2025/26, up approximately 38% year-on-year. The surge reflects both genuine income growth among the diaspora and the EGP's relative competitiveness following depreciation. Remittances remain Egypt's single largest source of foreign currency.

Read full article → CBE
CBE · Balance of Payments

Egypt BoP deficit narrows 2.9% to $1.8bn in Jul–Mar FY2025/26 as FDI, tourism, and Suez recover

(12 Jul) Egypt's overall BoP deficit narrowed to $1.8bn in the first nine months of FY2025/26, supported by net FDI inflows surging to $13bn from $9.8bn a year earlier—including a $3.5bn Alam El-Roum deal tranche. Tourism revenues rose 14.9% to $14.4bn and Suez Canal receipts climbed 22.1% to $3.2bn on higher vessel numbers. Portfolio outflows of $4.4bn partly offset the gains.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt · CBE
IMF · EFF Programme

IMF EFF extended to Dec 2026; 7th/8th reviews and ~$3.3bn in tranches still to be unlocked

(Feb 2026, ongoing) The IMF completed the 5th/6th reviews in February 2026, disbursing ~$2bn under EFF and $273m under RSF. Egypt's 46-month EFF has been extended through December 15, 2026. Two remaining reviews and roughly $3.3bn in disbursements are conditional on divestment progress and structural benchmarks including tax reform and state-owned bank governance.

Read full article → IMF · Enterprise Press
IMF · WEO July Update

IMF raises Egypt 2026 growth forecast to 4.6% amid MENA-wide contraction

(9 Jul) The IMF's July 2026 WEO Update upgraded Egypt's real GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.6% (from 4.4% in 2025), noting Egypt's relative macroeconomic resilience amid a MENA region broadly in contraction due to the US-Iran conflict. Global growth was revised down to 3.1% while global inflation was revised up to 4.7%, driven by a projected 32% rise in crude oil prices.

Read full article → Ahram Online
Privatisation · EGX

PM Madbouly: 20 SOEs provisionally listed on EGX; targets 65% private investment share by 2028

(13 Jul) Prime Minister Madbouly confirmed 20 state-owned companies have been provisionally listed on the EGX—17 from the public enterprise sector and 3 from petroleum—ahead of full IPOs. Procedures are underway to provisionally list a further 10 companies (7 petroleum + 3 public enterprise) to complete a 30-company programme. The government targets beginning FRA registrations and actual share offerings before end-2026 to unlock remaining IMF tranches.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt
Privatisation · Pipeline

Egypt government preparing IPOs of 8 SOEs + 10 petroleum companies on EGX

(Jun–Jul 2026) The government is preparing initial public offerings of eight state-owned companies on the EGX in addition to provisional listings of 10 petroleum-sector firms. Plans include minority stakes in Misr Life Insurance, El Nahda Industries, Egyptian Ferroalloys, El Nasr Glass, El Nasr Mining, and Alexandria Co. for Refractories. Cabinet has ordered all provisionally listed companies to complete offerings by year-end.

Read full article → Arab Finance · Enterprise Press
Suez Canal · Recovery

Suez Canal revenues up 22% to $3.2bn in Jul–Mar FY2025/26; Maersk cautiously returning

(12 Jul) CBE BoP data confirmed Suez Canal transit receipts rose 22.1% year-on-year to $3.2bn in the first nine months of FY2025/26, with net tonnage up 18.5% to 426.9mn tonnes and vessel transits up 7.6% to ~10,000. Enterprise reported Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have made a cautious return to Suez transits, though analysts warn any renewed Hormuz/Red Sea escalation could reverse the recovery.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt · Enterprise Press
FX · EGP

USD/EGP reaches 50.69 as EGP weakens 0.9% in a session; Wise shows 52-week range 46.64–54.86

(14 Jul) The Egyptian pound weakened 0.90% to 50.69 per dollar on 14 July per Trading Economics, reflecting pressure from the Iran-driven oil shock and broader dollar demand. Wise data shows USD/EGP ranged between 48.81 and 50.72 during the past week. The 52-week range of 46.64–54.86 reflects the EGP's sharp depreciation during peak conflict stress in March 2026 and subsequent partial recovery.

Read full article → Trading Economics · Wise · Investing.com
T-bills · CBE Auction

CBE auctions EGP 120bn in T-bills (182-day and 364-day) on 9 July 2026

(9 Jul) The CBE offered EGP 120bn in two T-bill tranches: EGP 50bn at 182-day tenor and EGP 70bn at 364-day tenor on 9 July 2026, in coordination with the Ministry of Finance. The auction forms part of weekly debt-management operations to finance the budget deficit. HC Securities had cited the 12-month T-bill yield at approximately 24.7% ahead of the MPC meeting, implying a positive real rate buffer of ~6.8% for foreign investors after 15% tax.

Read full article → Arab Finance / Zawya · HC Securities via EgyptGate