Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Monday, 13 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Middle-East risk premium dominates: US–Iran tensions keep Brent elevated and push markets to price a ~58% chance of a September Fed rate hike, sending gold lower and UST yields near two-month highs, while Egypt's EGX 30 rallied +1.21% after the CBE held rates for a third straight meeting and reserves hit a record $55.07 bn.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,575.39+0.42%Dow Jones52,637.01+0.29%Nasdaq Composite26,281.61+0.29%FTSE 10010,679.03+0.30%DAX 4025,067-0.20%CAC 408,338.97+0.15%Gold$4,070Brent$75.50USD/EGP49.61+0.10%EUR/USD~1.107n/aCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,575.39+0.42%Dow Jones52,637.01+0.29%Nasdaq Composite26,281.61+0.29%FTSE 10010,679.03+0.30%DAX 4025,067-0.20%CAC 408,338.97+0.15%Gold$4,070Brent$75.50USD/EGP49.61+0.10%EUR/USD~1.107n/aCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
52,679.40
+1.21%
S&P 500
7,575.39
+0.42%
Gold
$4,070
USD / EGP
49.61
+0.10%
Brent
$75.50
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
52,679
▲ +347% 5y
8,34620,86833,39045,91158,433 Jul-2021Dec-2022Dec-2023Mar-2024Dec-2024May-2026Jul-2026 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
49.61
▲ +216% 5y
12.6923.6534.6145.5656.52 Jul-2021Dec-2022Jan-2024Mar-2024Dec-2024Feb-2026Jul-2026 USD / EGP
CBE Policy Rate · %
19.00%
— Held 3rd mtg; -825bps Apr 2025–Feb 2026
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% Jul-2021Dec-2022Jan-2024Apr-2025Feb-2026Jul-2026 CBE Policy Rate
S&P 500 · index
7,575
▲ +74% 5y
3,5404,6245,7076,7907,874 Jul-2021Dec-2022Dec-2023Dec-2024Dec-2025Jul-2026 S&P 500
Fed Funds Target · %
4.25–4.50%
— Unchanged; mkt ~58% Sep hike
-0.3%1.2%2.8%4.3%5.8% Jul-2021Dec-2022Dec-2023Dec-2024Dec-2025Jul-2026 Fed Funds Target
Gold · $/oz
$4,070
▼ +126% 5y; -27% from Jan ATH $5,598
1,4962,5983,6994,8005,902 Jul-2021Dec-2022Dec-2023Jan-2026Jun-2026Jul-12-2026 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Jul 10 close; +9.6% H1 20267,575.39+0.42%
Dow Jones Jul 10 close52,637.01+0.29%
Nasdaq Composite Jul 10 close26,281.61+0.29%
FTSE 100 Jul 11 close; DAX hit record intraweek10,679.03+0.30%
DAX 40 Jul 10 close; -2.76% on week on Iran tensions25,067-0.20%
CAC 40 Jul 11 (Yahoo Finance delayed)8,338.97+0.15%
Nikkei 225 Latest available (Yahoo Finance)68,557.73+1.20%
Hang Seng Latest available (Yahoo Finance)24,175.12+0.60%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 Jul 13 close; +54% y/y52,679.40+1.21%
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit rate — Unchanged at Jul 9 MPC — 3rd consecutive hold.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending rate — Unchanged at Jul 9 MPC.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit rate19.00%Unchanged at Jul 9 MPC — 3rd consecutive hold
Overnight lending rate20.00%Unchanged at Jul 9 MPC
Main operation rate19.50%Unchanged at Jul 9 MPC
Discount rate19.50%Unchanged at Jul 9 MPC
Treasury bonds
10-year EGP bond (proxy)~22–23%
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.53%
1-year UST4.06%
2-year UST4.21%
3-year UST4.22%
5-year UST4.30%
10-year UST4.56%
30-year UST5.06%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.18%
United States — Jul 10, 2026 (latest business day)
Fed funds target Unchanged; FOMC Jul 28–29 expected hold4.25–4.50%
SOFR overnight (NY Fed, Jul 10)~4.30%
3-month Term SOFR (CME, Jul 10) Approximate; reflects ~58% Sep hike pricing~4.52%
1-year UST Jul 10 estimate; not directly extracted~4.35%
2-year UST Jul 10 close — Advisor Perspectives4.21%
3-year UST Interpolated from 2y/5y curve Jul 10~4.30%
5-year UST Interpolated from Jul 10 curve~4.40%
10-year UST Jul 10 close — Trading Economics / Advisor Perspectives4.54%
30-year UST Approximate Jul 10; not directly extracted~4.88%
Euro Area — Jul 10, 2026 (latest available)
ECB deposit facility rate~2.00%
€STR (overnight) Approximate, tracks ECB deposit rate less ~10bps~1.90%
EURIBOR 3M Approximate Jul 10; rate hike expectations pushing short end up~2.30%
EURIBOR 6M Approximate Jul 10~2.55%
EURIBOR 12M June 2026 monthly average — Banco de España / EMMI2.798%
10-year Bund yield Approximate Jul 10; elevated on rate-hike fears~2.85%
United Kingdom — Jul 10–11, 2026 (latest available)
BoE Bank Rate~4.25%
SONIA overnight Approximate, tracks BoE rate~4.20%
10-year Gilt yield Approximate Jul 10; not directly extracted~4.70%
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP49.61+0.10%
EUR / EGP~54.90n/a
GBP / EGP~64.10n/a
SAR / EGP~13.23n/a
EUR / USD~1.107n/a
GBP / USD~1.293n/a
USD / JPY~145.5n/a
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD Jul 12 spot close (Trading Economics); -1.24% on day; -27% from Jan 2026 ATH $5,598; +21.76% y/y; Fed-hike fears remain headwind▼ $4,070
Brent Crude Jul 10 close approx; +4.7% on week; US–Iran strikes disrupted Strait of Hormuz; 52w high $120.88 (Apr 30)▲ $75.50
WTI Crude Jul 10 close approx; +4% on week; IEA warns prolonged tensions could delay inventory rebuild▲ $71.00
Copper · HG Approximate Jul 10; volatile on Iran macro-risk; JPM notes copper macro risks not yet fully priced— ~$4.40/lb
05

Global Economy

US–Iran · Geopolitics

Brent climbs ~4% on Monday as US and Iran exchange fresh missile strikes over Strait of Hormuz

(13 Jul) Brent crude climbed about 4% to around $79/bbl on Monday, snapping a two-day losing streak after the US and Iran exchanged fresh missile strikes over the weekend amid ongoing tensions over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran declared the strait closed 'until further notice', though the US Central Command rejected the claim. Tehran insists Washington must fulfil prior commitments before negotiations resume.

Read full article → Trading Economics
Fed · Policy

Markets price ~58% chance of September Fed rate hike as US inflation hits 4.2% in June

(10 Jul) Gold fell and UST yields eased slightly on Friday as oil dipped from recent highs, but traders continued to price nearly a 60% probability of a 25 bp Fed hike by September. The June FOMC minutes showed only a few policymakers favoured an immediate hike, yet officials expressed growing inflation concern. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announced leadership of five policy-review task forces, signalling potential procedural changes at the US central bank.

Read full article → Trading Economics · CNBC
US · Equities

S&P 500 ends week at 7,575 as chip rally and oil retreat offset geopolitical drag

(10 Jul) US equities closed higher on Friday with the S&P 500 gaining 0.4% to 7,575.39, the Dow adding 150 points to 52,637, and the Nasdaq up 0.29% to 26,281 ahead of earnings season. SK Hynix ADRs surged 12.8% above offering price after raising $26.5 bn in the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company. Meta jumped 6% after SemiAnalysis published a positive AI-compute report; Nvidia advanced 4%.

Read full article → Trading Economics · Yahoo Finance
Oil · Energy

IEA warns prolonged US–Iran conflict could derail global oil inventory rebuild

(10 Jul) The International Energy Agency cautioned that a prolonged escalation in US–Iran hostilities could delay rebuilding global oil inventories and disrupt the expected oil-market balance. WTI settled around $71/bbl on Friday — up ~4% on the week — while Brent closed near $76, recording a ~5% weekly gain. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of world oil and gas trade, remains significantly disrupted.

Read full article → Trading Economics
Gold · Commodities

Gold falls to $4,070 on Jul 12 as Fed rate-hike bets and stronger dollar weigh; -27% from Jan ATH

(12 Jul) Spot gold fell to $4,070/oz on July 12, down 1.24% on the day and roughly 27% below its January 2026 all-time high of $5,598. The commodity has suffered as the US–Iran war reversed expectations for Fed rate cuts, with markets now pricing ~58% odds of a September hike. Metals Focus expects consolidation over summer but sees a Fed pause as the base case, anticipating a resumption of gold's longer-term rally.

Read full article → Trading Economics · BullionVault
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Net Int'l Reserves
$55.07 bn
+$1.93 bn m/m
Urban Headline Inflation (CBE)
14.3%
-0.3pp m/m
CBE Policy Rate (deposit)
19.00%
Unchanged
Remittances (11m FY25/26)
$43.1 bn
+31.2% y/y
Real GDP Growth
5.0%
-0.3pp q/q
BoP Deficit (Jul–Mar FY25/26)
$1.8 bn
-2.9% y/y
CBE · Monetary Policy

MPC holds all four rates for third consecutive meeting, flags inflation risks from geopolitics

(9 Jul) The CBE's Monetary Policy Committee kept the overnight deposit rate at 19%, lending rate at 20%, and both the main operation and discount rates at 19.5% — the third consecutive hold since its year-long 825 bp easing cycle concluded in February 2026. The MPC cited headline inflation slowing to 14.3% in June (lowest since before the US–Iran conflict) but warned that the CBE's Q4 2026 target of 7%±2% faces heightened upside risks if conflict persists.

Read full article → Egypt Today · CBE
CBE · Reserves

Egypt's net international reserves reach all-time record of $55.07 bn at end-June

(8 Jul) Egypt's net international reserves rose to a historic high of $55.07 bn at end-June 2026, up $1.93 bn from $53.13 bn in May, according to the CBE. The growth reflects stronger remittances, rising tourism revenues, and improved export activity. The milestone reinforces Egypt's external resilience despite regional geopolitical tensions and earlier portfolio outflows.

Read full article → CBE · Economy Middle East
CBE · BoP

Egypt's BoP deficit narrows 2.9% to $1.8 bn in Jul–Mar FY2025/26 on FDI and remittance surge

(12 Jul) The CBE's balance-of-payments release showed the overall BoP deficit narrowed to $1.8 bn in the first nine months of FY2025/26 (Jul–Mar), down from $1.9 bn a year earlier. Net FDI surged to $13 bn from $9.8 bn, aided by the $3.5 bn Alam El-Roum deal. Remittances surged 32% to $34.9 bn; tourism revenues rose 14.9% to $14.4 bn; Suez Canal receipts rose 22.1% to $3.2 bn. However, portfolio investments recorded a net outflow of $4.4 bn.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt · CBE
CBE · CPI

Egypt annual headline inflation eases to 14.3% in June — third consecutive deceleration

(9 Jul) Urban headline CPI inflation eased to 14.3% y/y in June 2026 (CBE measure) from 14.6% in May, the third consecutive monthly deceleration and the lowest reading since before the outbreak of the US–Iran conflict. Monthly CPI fell 0.4% m/m in June, reversing a 1.6% rise in May, driven by seasonal food price declines. Core inflation ticked up slightly to 14.3% from 13.8% in May on a y/y basis.

Read full article → CBE · Zawya · Amwal Al Ghad
CBE · Remittances

Remittances hit $43.1 bn over 11 months of FY2025/26 — up 31.2% year-on-year

(9 Jul) Remittances from Egyptians working abroad reached $43.1 bn in the first eleven months of FY2025/26 (July–May), representing a 31.2% increase from $32.8 bn in the same period a year earlier, according to the CBE. Monthly remittances in May 2026 were $3.9 bn, up from $3.4 bn in May 2025. The inflows have been a critical anchor for Egypt's external position and NIR build-up.

Read full article → CBE · MENA Market Lab
Egypt · Banking

Consortium of four banks arranges EGP 4 bn syndicated loan for Ora Developers Egypt

(12 Jul) A consortium of four leading Egyptian banks arranged a EGP 4 bn syndicated loan for Ora Developers Egypt to finance remaining construction works on one of its major real-estate projects, according to Daily News Egypt. The deal reflects continued bank lending to the real-estate sector despite elevated interest rates, and follows CBE guidance to the banking sector on supporting national development initiatives.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt
Egypt · Macro

CBE data: Egypt's H1 FY2025/26 current account deficit narrowed 13.6% to $9.5 bn

(Released Jun/Jul) The CBE's H1 FY2025/26 BoP report showed the current account deficit narrowed by 13.6% to $9.5 bn from $10.9 bn. Key drivers: remittances rose 29.6% to $22.1 bn, tourism revenues rose 17.3% to $10.2 bn, and Suez Canal receipts increased 19% to $2.2 bn. Portfolio investments swung to a net inflow of $5.0 bn from a net outflow of $3.2 bn previously.

Read full article → CBE
Egypt · Fiscal / Wages

Government to raise minimum monthly income for state employees to EGP 8,000 from July 20

(9 Jul) Starting July 20, the Egyptian government will increase the minimum monthly income for state employees to EGP 8,000. Employees subject to the Civil Service Law will receive a 12% annual increment on their functional wage, while those outside the law will receive 15%. All public sector employees will additionally receive a EGP 750 supplementary allowance — a measure that will add to the fiscal wage bill.

Read full article → MENA Market Lab
Egypt · External Debt / Bonds

Egypt privately places $500 mn Samurai bonds with AFD partial guarantee — $350 mn 5yr, $150 mn 10yr

(Jul) Egypt issued $500 mn in Samurai bonds backed with a partial guarantee from France's Agence Française de Développement (AFD), split between $350 mn at 5-year tenor and $150 mn at 10-year. The privately-placed issuance diversifies Egypt's funding base and signals continued investor appetite for Egyptian sovereign credit despite geopolitical headwinds.

Read full article → MENA Market Lab
Egypt · EGX / Capital Markets

EGX 30 rallies 1.21% on July 13 to 52,679 following CBE hold and NIR record

(13 Jul) The EGX 30 rose +1.21% to close at 52,679.40 on July 13, with volume at 328.6 mn shares. The rally follows the CBE's July 9 hold decision and the record $55.07 bn reserves figure. The index peaked at 54,978.9 in May 2026 and has declined roughly 4.2% over the past month, but remains up approximately 54% year-on-year.

Read full article → Yahoo Finance · TradingView
Egypt · Trade / Germany

Egypt–Germany economic ties gaining momentum on rising trade volumes and expanding German investment

(12 Jul) Egypt's Minister of Investment and Foreign Trade, Mohamed Farid, and British Ambassador Mark Bryson-Richardson reviewed the scope for deeper bilateral ties. Separately, economic relations between Egypt and Germany are gaining renewed momentum, supported by rising trade volumes, expanding German investments, and deepening cooperation across industrial and technology sectors, according to Daily News Egypt.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt
Egypt · Energy / LNG

Egypt's energy import bill rose 30% in H1 2026 to $12.5 bn; LNG imports surged 259% in 2025

(9 Jul) Egypt's energy import bills rose by 30% in H1 2026 from the same period in 2025 to $12.5 bn from $9.6 bn, driven by both higher prices and higher volumes. LNG imports surged by 259% in 2025 alone, reflecting Egypt's structural shift from being a natural gas exporter to a LNG importer — a key risk for the current account and foreign currency reserves.

Read full article → MENA Market Lab