Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Sunday, 12 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Strait of Hormuz closure threat by IRGC on July 11 injects fresh geopolitical risk premium into oil and global equities, even as Egypt's EGX 30 surged +1.21% on record FX reserves and a third straight CBE rate-hold, with U.S. stocks (Jul 10 close) ending the week higher on semiconductor momentum ahead of earnings season.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,575.39+0.42%Dow Jones52,637.01+0.29%Nasdaq Composite26,281.61+0.29%FTSE 10010,497+0.23%DAX 4025,118+0.89%CAC 408,339+0.15%Gold$4,114.70Brent$76.00USD/EGP~49.10stableCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,575.39+0.42%Dow Jones52,637.01+0.29%Nasdaq Composite26,281.61+0.29%FTSE 10010,497+0.23%DAX 4025,118+0.89%CAC 408,339+0.15%Gold$4,114.70Brent$76.00USD/EGP~49.10stableCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
52,679
+1.21%
S&P 500
7,575.39
+0.42%
Gold
$4,114.70
USD / EGP
~49.10
stable
Brent
$76.00
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
52,679
▲ +358% 5y
8,20620,14832,09044,03155,973 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-07-12 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
~49.1
▼ EGP appreciated ~11% from Apr 2026 peak of 54.7; ~3% ytd depreciation
12.6123.8135.0046.1957.39 2021-122022-122023-122024-062025-122026-04 USD / EGP
CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit) · %
19.00%
— -825bps Apr 2025–Feb 2026; held 3 consecutive meetings
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 2021-122023-012024-022025-032026-022026-07-09 CBE Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit)
S&P 500 · index
7,575.39
▲ +9.6% H1 2026; +58% 5y
3,5414,6245,7086,7917,874 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-07-10 S&P 500
Fed Funds (Effective) · %
3.63%
— Target 3.50–3.75%; held at Jul-26 FOMC; hike risk for Sep 2026 at ~64%
-0.3%1.2%2.7%4.2%5.8% 2021-122022-122023-122024-122026-07 Fed Funds (Effective)
Gold · $/oz
$4,114 (Jul 10 close)
▼ Peak ~$4,574 (late Apr 2026); down from highs on easing Hormuz fears
1,6412,3052,9693,6334,297 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-122026-07-10 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Jul 10 close; +9.6% H1 20267,575.39+0.42%
Dow Jones Jul 10 close; Nvidia +3.91% led gains52,637.01+0.29%
Nasdaq Composite Jul 10 close; SK Hynix ADR debut +12.8%26,281.61+0.29%
FTSE 100 Jul 10 close; down 1.7% on week; AstraZeneca -3.5% weighed10,497+0.23%
DAX 40 Jul 11 intraday reference; hit ATH 25,826 on Jul 425,118+0.89%
CAC 40 Jul 11 intraday reference8,339+0.15%
Nikkei 225 Jul 10 close; SoftBank +10.7%, semiconductor rally68,558+1.20%
Hang Seng Jul 10 close (prev session -0.70%)24,175+0.60%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 Jul 12 close (EGP); +61.7% past 12 months52,679+1.21%
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit — Held at Jul 9 MPC — 3rd consecutive hold; follows 825bps of cuts Apr 2025–Feb 2026.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending — Held at Jul 9 MPC; ceiling of CBE corridor.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit19.00%Held at Jul 9 MPC — 3rd consecutive hold; follows 825bps of cuts Apr 2025–Feb 2026
Overnight lending20.00%Held at Jul 9 MPC; ceiling of CBE corridor
Main operation rate19.50%Held at Jul 9 MPC
Discount rate19.50%Held at Jul 9 MPC
Treasury bills
12-month T-bill~24.7%Latest auction yield per HC Securities; implies ~6.78% positive real rate (15% tax adjusted)
Treasury bonds
Egyptian Eurobond avgSpread +170bps avg vs Q4-2025Q1 2026 CBE MPR; specific domestic 3/5/10y EGP yields not published in today's sources
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.53%
1-year UST4.06%
2-year UST4.21%
3-year UST4.22%
5-year UST4.30%
10-year UST4.56%
30-year UST5.06%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.18%
United States (Jul 10, 2026 — Fed H.15 / Seeking Alpha / TradingEconomics)
Fed funds target3.50–3.75%
Effective fed funds (EFFR)3.63%
10-year UST Eased from 4.58% wk-high on lower oil & Iran peace talk hopes4.54%
2-year UST4.21%
30-year UST CNBC Jul 7: 30y trading above 5% level>5.00%
SOFR overnight~3.63%
Euro Area (week of Jul 7–10, 2026)
ECB deposit facility rate~2.00%
EURIBOR 12M As of Jul 6, 2026 per euribor.live (ECB/EMMI source)2.693%
EURIBOR 3M~2.15%
EURIBOR 6M~2.40%
10-year Bund Euro Area 10Y govt bond yield Jul 7 per TradingEconomics~3.38%
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP~49.10stable
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD Jul 10 close; down ~1.72% on the day; off ~10% from Apr 2026 ATH of ~$4,574; Hormuz risk premium partially unwound▼ $4,114.70
Brent Crude · ICE Jul 10 close; +~5% on week as Hormuz disruption kept risk premium; IRGC declared closure 'until further notice' Jul 11 — watch Monday open▲ $76.00
WTI Crude · NYMEX Jul 10 close; -0.93% on day; +~3.5% on week; Iran peace talks continuing per Qatari mediation▲ $71.41
05

Global Economy

Geopolitics · Hormuz

IRGC declares Strait of Hormuz closed 'until further notice', fires warning shot at commercial vessel

(11 Jul) Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy announced Saturday that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed until further notice and claimed a commercial vessel had been halted by a warning shot, raising the prospect of a dramatic escalation in the US-Iran conflict. The announcement adds acute energy supply risk heading into the Sunday-Monday Asia open, potentially sending Brent sharply higher.

Read full article → ABC News · CNN
Diplomacy · Iran

Iran foreign minister holds Hormuz safety talks with Oman in Muscat

(11 Jul) Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi in Muscat to discuss safety and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides agreeing to further technical and political talks. The diplomatic outreach signals some off-ramp potential even as military exchanges continue.

Read full article → CNN · Oman News Agency via CNN
Energy · IEA

IEA warns prolonged Iran conflict could derail global oil inventory rebuild

(10 Jul) The International Energy Agency cautioned that a prolonged US-Iran conflict could undermine plans to rebuild global oil inventories later this year after recent supply losses through the Strait of Hormuz. Vessel tracking data showed traffic through the strait remained significantly below normal, keeping a risk premium in oil prices even as UAE raised crude output to a record.

Read full article → TradingEconomics / Reuters · Forbes Advisor
Markets · US Equities

S&P 500 ends week at 7,575 as SK Hynix ADR debut surges 12.8% in largest-ever US foreign listing

(10 Jul) US stocks closed higher on Friday with the S&P 500 at 7,575 (+0.42%) and Dow at 52,637 (+0.29%), driven by semiconductor momentum. SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipt debut — raising $26.5bn in the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company — surged 12.8% above its offering price, lifting Nvidia +3.9% and AMD +2%.

Read full article → Yahoo Finance · TradingEconomics · CNBC
Rates · Fed

10-year Treasury eases to 4.54% as oil falls; markets still price 64% chance of Sep Fed hike

(10 Jul) The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.54% on Friday — its second consecutive session of declines — as easing oil prices reduced near-term inflation fears following reports of continued US-Iran peace talks. Nonetheless, markets continue to price a ~64% probability of a Fed rate hike at the September 2026 FOMC meeting, with Chair Warsh announcing five policy-review task forces.

Read full article → TradingEconomics · Seeking Alpha · CNBC
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Net FX Reserves
$55.07bn
+$1.93bn m/m
Headline CPI (YoY)
14.3%
-0.3pp m/m
CBE Policy Rate
19.00%
0bps
Remittances (11M FY25/26)
$43.1bn
+33.2% YoY (10M basis)
Real GDP Growth (Q1 2026)
5.0%
-0.3pp q/q
Primary Surplus (FY25)
3.5% of GDP
Govt debt 82.5% of GDP end-FY25
CBE · MPC

CBE holds all four corridor rates for third consecutive meeting, cites June inflation at 14.3%

(9 Jul) The Monetary Policy Committee kept the overnight deposit at 19.00%, overnight lending at 20.00%, main operation and discount rates at 19.50% — the third consecutive hold since the 825bps easing cycle that ran April 2025 to February 2026. The MPC cited annual headline inflation declining to 14.3% in June, a slight Q2 GDP moderation, and ongoing geopolitical risks. Inflation is projected to reach single-digit levels approaching the 7±2% target in H2 2027.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt · CBE · TradingEconomics
CBE · Reserves

Egypt's net international reserves hit all-time record of $55.07bn at end-June 2026

(8 Jul) The Central Bank of Egypt reported net foreign exchange reserves of $55.07bn at the end of June 2026 — a historic high — up $1.93bn from May's $53.13bn. The increase was driven by strong export activity, rising tourism revenues, and surging remittances. Record FX buffers reinforce Egypt's external resilience amid regional conflict spillovers.

Read full article → Economy Middle East · CBE
CBE · Remittances

Remittances from Egyptians abroad hit $43.1bn over 11 months of FY25/26

(9 Jul) The CBE reported that remittances from Egyptians working abroad recorded $43.1bn over the first eleven months of fiscal year 2025–2026, representing a 33.2% increase in the first ten months on a year-on-year basis. Monthly remittance inflows in April 2026 alone rose 44% YoY to approximately $4.3bn, providing critical support to Egypt's balance of payments.

Read full article → CBE · Economy Middle East
EGX · IPO Pipeline

Egypt temporarily lists four petroleum-sector state-owned firms on EGX; 20 of 30 IPO-programme companies now listed

(28 Jun) Egypt's EGX held an opening bell ceremony for the temporary listing of four state-owned companies — engineering firm ENPPI ($357.1mn issued capital), Egyptian Linear Alkyl Benzene ELAB ($210mn), Petroleum Marine Services PMS ($120mn), and Maamoura for Construction and Tourism Development (EGP 250mn). The move brings the total of temporarily listed companies under the state IPO programme to 20 of the announced 30. The government targets $3–4bn in divestment revenues by end-2026.

Read full article → Arab Finance · Sada Elbalad · AGBI
EGX · Privatisation

Egypt to add 4–5 more state-owned companies to EGX before end-2026; 10 petroleum firms in pipeline

(6 Jun–recent) Prime Minister Madbouly confirmed Egypt plans to offer 4–5 further state-owned companies on the EGX before year-end, beyond the 20 already temporarily listed. Ten petroleum-sector companies are entering the temporary listing process as part of the State Ownership Policy. The government also launched its 2nd State Ownership Policy Document for 2026–2030, setting the framework for asset divestment aligned with the IMF Extended Fund Facility.

Read full article → Arab Finance · Enterprise AM
IMF · EFF

IMF staff mission targeting ~$1.6bn disbursement this summer; privatisation progress key conditionality

(May–Jul) An IMF staff mission is expected to lead to a roughly $1.6bn disbursement this summer from the $8bn Extended Fund Facility. Enterprise AM and EnterpriseAM noted that the remaining two IMF reviews require tangible divestment progress to unlock the final $3.3bn of EFF tranches plus additional Resilience and Sustainability Facility inflows. Egypt's tax revenues rose 29% in Jul 2025–Mar 2026 without additional tax burdens.

Read full article → Asharq Al-Awsat via NewsNow · Enterprise AM
Banking · Syndicated Loan

Four Egyptian banks arrange EGP 4bn syndicated loan for Ora Developers to fund construction

(12 Jul) A consortium of four leading Egyptian banks arranged a EGP 4 billion syndicated loan for Ora Developers Egypt to finance remaining construction works, according to Daily News Egypt. The deal reflects continued banking-sector appetite for large real-estate project finance as Egypt's New Administrative Capital and mega-development projects advance.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt
SCZone · Pharma

Korra Energi wins EGP 470.7mn contract to build GennVax vaccine facility in Ain Sokhna SCZone

(Recent) Korra Energi secured a EGP 470.7mn integrated works contract for GennVax Egypt's vaccine manufacturing facility in the Ain Sokhna Suez Canal Economic Zone, with scope potentially extending by EGP 100mn. The Ain Sokhna plant is designed to start production at 70–80mn doses per year, scaling to 270mn at full capacity — part of Egypt's pharmaceutical localisation push.

Read full article → Enterprise AM
Fertilizers · SCZone

Indorama closes in on $348mn IFC/EBRD debt package for Ain Sokhna phosphate fertilizer complex

(Recent) Singapore-based Indorama is in advanced discussions for a combined $348mn debt package from the IFC ($174mn) and EBRD ($174mn) for its greenfield phosphate fertilizer complex in Ain Sokhna. Once operational, the $525mn facility is expected to produce 600k tonnes per annum of phosphate fertilizers alongside sulfuric and phosphoric acid — a key step in Egypt's green chemical industrialisation.

Read full article → Enterprise AM
Egypt · Iran War Impact

Egypt government updates economic scenarios for US-Iran war fallout; Suez Canal revenues up 27% YoY despite pressure

(Recent) PM Madbouly directed Egypt's ministerial economic group to update comprehensive scenarios for handling the economic fallout from the US-Israel-Iran war. Notably, Suez Canal revenues rose approximately 27% YoY to $1.56bn in the first four months of FY26, while worker remittances increased ~38% YoY to $17bn in the same period — showing resilience. However, the canal sector faces continued uncertainty from Hormuz disruptions.

Read full article → Egypt Today · HC Securities / EGYGateNews
Egypt · UK Relations

Egypt and UK deepen economic ties; British PM Starmer due to visit Egypt in July 2026

(12 Jul) Egypt's Minister of Investment and Foreign Trade Mohamed Farid met British Ambassador Mark Bryson-Richardson to review expanding economic relations, ahead of an expected visit by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Egypt this month. Germany-Egypt economic ties are also deepening, with rising trade volumes and expanding German investments according to Daily News Egypt.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt · Enterprise AM
Egypt · World Bank

World Bank: Egypt primary surplus 3.5% of GDP in FY25; government debt falls to 82.5% from 90.1%

(Recent) The World Bank highlighted that Egypt's primary surplus reached 3.5% of GDP in FY25, supported by tax revenue gains and spending restraint, while central government debt declined to 82.5% of GDP at end-FY25 from 90.1% at end-FY24. However, interest payments remain high at 10.6% of GDP, limiting fiscal space. Official FX reserves plus other assets reached $67.5bn as of end-February 2026.

Read full article → World Bank