The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.
| Index | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Jul 9 close; weekly gain >1%; Nvidia +4%, Meta +6% on week | 7,575.39 | +0.42% |
| Dow Jones Jul 9 close; Nvidia & Nike led; IBM weighed | 52,637.01 | +0.29% |
| Nasdaq Composite Jul 9 close; SK Hynix ADR debut surged 13% | 26,281.61 | +0.29% |
| FTSE 100 Jul 10 close; Vodafone +13% on Niel stake; FTSE -1.7% on week | 10,497 | +0.23% |
| DAX Jul 11 intraday (European session) | 25,118 | +0.89% |
| CAC 40 Jul 11 intraday (European session) | 8,330 | +0.04% |
| Nikkei 225 Jul 11 close; tech rally led by SoftBank, Kioxia; +75% past 12m | 68,557.73 | +1.20% |
| Hang Seng Jul 11 close; sharp rebound from prior session losses | 24,199.46 | +2.99% |
| Index | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| EGX 30 Jul 11 live (Investing.com delayed); +62% past 12m; 52-wk range 32,595–54,977 | 50,344 | n/d |
| Instrument | Rate / Yield | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Policy corridor | ||
| Overnight deposit | 19.00% | Unchanged Jul 9 2026 — 3rd consecutive hold; easing cycle paused since Apr 2026 |
| Overnight lending | 20.00% | Unchanged Jul 9 2026 |
| Main operation rate | 19.50% | Unchanged Jul 9 2026 |
| Discount rate | 19.50% | Unchanged Jul 9 2026 |
| Treasury bills | ||
| 12-month T-bill (latest auction implied) | ~24.70% | HC Securities cited 24.7% yield implying +6.8% real rate vs ~14% inflation forecast |
| Treasury bonds | ||
| 3-year (CIB savings cert benchmark) | 18.00% | CIB raised fixed-rate 3y savings certificate to 18% effective Jul 7 2026 — market proxy |
| Rate | Level |
|---|---|
| United States | |
| Fed funds target on hold | 3.50–3.75% |
| SOFR (overnight) | 3.53% |
| 1-year UST | 4.06% |
| 2-year UST | 4.21% |
| 3-year UST | 4.22% |
| 5-year UST | 4.30% |
| 10-year UST | 4.56% |
| 30-year UST | 5.06% |
| Euro Area | |
| ECB deposit facility | 2.25% |
| ECB main refinancing | 2.40% |
| ECB marginal lending | 2.65% |
| €STR | 2.18% |
| United States (Jul 10 2026 — prior business day) | |
| Fed funds target range Held; next FOMC Jul 28–29; hike probability ~64% for Sep | 3.50–3.75% |
| SOFR overnight (effective rate) StreetStats / NY Fed; as of Jul 2 2026 (latest confirmed) | 3.63% |
| 1-Month Term SOFR (CME) Pensford forward curve (latest available) | 4.14% |
| 1-year UST Estimated from curve; 10y at 4.54% Jul 10 (Trading Economics) | ~4.20% |
| 2-year UST Approximate from curve shape; 2y eased after light jobs report Jul 2 | ~4.30% |
| 5-year UST Pensford forward curve Jul 10 | 3.72% |
| 10-year UST Trading Economics Jul 10 close; off 7-week high of ~4.58% (Jul 8) | 4.54% |
| 30-year UST CNBC Jul 7: '30-year trading above key 5% level' | >5.00% |
| United Kingdom (Jun 18 2026 MPC decision) | |
| BoE Bank Rate MPC voted 7–2 to hold Jun 17–18 2026; two members wanted 4.00% | 3.75% |
| Pair | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD / EGP | ~50.85 | n/d |
| EUR / USD | ~1.086 | n/d |
| GBP / USD | ~1.292 | n/d |
| USD / JPY | ~162 | n/d |
| SAR / EGP | ~13.55 | n/d |
| EUR / EGP | ~55.22 | n/d |
| GBP / EGP | ~65.70 | n/d |
| Commodity | Price |
|---|---|
| Gold · XAU/USD Jul 10: geopolitical safe-haven demand vs Fed rate hike risk; HSBC lowered 2026 avg forecast to $4,560 | — ~$4,100/oz |
| Brent Crude Jul 10 close; +4.7% on week as Hormuz traffic plunged but US-Iran talks ongoing | ▲ ~$76.00/bbl |
| WTI Crude Jul 10 close (Trading Economics $71.51; Investing.com $71.41); -0.9% day | ▼ ~$71.50/bbl |
| Natural Gas (Henry Hub) Investing.com Jul 10 futures; -3.35% day as Hormuz LNG risk partially priced in | ▼ ~$3.23/mmBtu |
(10 Jul) The US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes this week after Tehran resumed attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, sending vessel traffic plummeting from ~110 ships/day before the conflict to just 15. President Trump declared the MoU 'over' but said talks would continue; Qatari, Turkish, Egyptian and Saudi officials are meeting Iranian leaders seeking de-escalation. The IEA warned that renewed fighting could delay rebuilding global oil inventories, with supply still 9.4mn bpd below pre-war levels.
Read full article → CNN · Al Jazeera · Bloomberg · Fox News · Times of Israel(10 Jul) The International Energy Agency cautioned that a sustained escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could undermine plans to rebuild global oil inventories and eliminate the forecast 4.62mn bpd supply surplus expected for 2027. Brent held near $76/bbl, up ~5% on the week, as Hormuz traffic remained severely depressed. UAE meantime raised crude output to a record to offset Gulf supply disruptions.
Read full article → Al Jazeera · Trading Economics · Bloomberg(10 Jul) South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix priced its Nasdaq ADR debut at $149 and opened at $170, raising $26.5bn — the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company. The landmark deal stoked broader semiconductor enthusiasm: Nvidia advanced 4% and Meta jumped 6% on the week on strong AI compute coverage. The S&P 500 closed the week up over 1% at 7,575, while the Dow added 150 points to 52,637.
Read full article → CNBC · Trading Economics(9 Jul) Minutes from the FOMC's June meeting showed policymakers expressed increasing concern about inflation, though only a handful favoured an immediate rate rise. Markets have re-priced materially, with futures now implying a ~64% probability of a September hike after Iran-driven oil prices stoked fresh cost pressures. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also announced five task forces to review the Fed's policymaking approach, signaling potential structural changes.
Read full article → CNBC · Trading Economics · IC Markets(10 Jul) The FTSE 100 closed +0.23% on Friday at 10,497 but still ended the week 1.7% lower, its worst week in months, dragged by AstraZeneca (-3.5%, extending Thursday's 6.2% drop after its Wainua gene-silencing therapy failed a late-stage trial). Vodafone surged 13% on news French billionaire Xavier Niel will acquire the Etisalat stake. In Frankfurt the DAX hit a new all-time high above 25,826 during the week before easing.
Read full article → Trading Economics · CNBC · Alliance NewsEgypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.
(9 Jul) Egypt's Monetary Policy Committee held the overnight deposit rate at 19%, overnight lending at 20%, and both the main operation and discount rates at 19.5%. The decision, the third consecutive hold, reflects continued caution over inflation and geopolitical risks. The CBE warned its Q4 2026 inflation target of 7% (±2pp) remains at risk. Market participants increasingly expect the easing cycle to resume at the August MPC meeting if disinflation continues.
Read full article → EgyptToday · CBE · Middle East Observer · DailyNewsEgypt(9 Jul) The CBE published June CPI data showing annual urban headline inflation eased to 14.3% from 14.6% in May — a third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest since before the Middle East conflict began. Monthly CPI was -0.4%, driven by a 3.2% m/m fall in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices. Annual core CPI rose to 14.3% from 13.8% in May, reflecting stickier underlying pressures. CAPMAS reported the alternate national measure at 12.2% y/y.
Read full article → Arab Finance · CBE · Middle East Observer(8 Jul) The CBE reported provisional net international reserves of $55,072.3mn at end-June 2026, up from $52.8bn at end-March 2026 — a new all-time high. The strong reserve buffer reflects continued remittance inflows, resilient FDI, and portfolio inflows attracted by high real rates. NIR has risen from $49.5bn at end-September 2025.
Read full article → CBE(9 Jul) The CBE announced workers' remittances totalled $43.1bn over the 11 months ending May 2026, surging at a record pace. Remittances rose ~38% year-on-year in the January–April 2026 period, according to HC Securities. This reflects a combination of the floating exchange rate premium, channel normalisation, and strong Gulf labour demand. Remittances are now equivalent to over 10% of GDP.
Read full article → CBE · Arab Finance · HC Securities(10 Jul) Egypt and Gulf states held phone calls urging restraint after fresh US-Iran strikes disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping for a second time. Egyptian officials joined Qatari, Saudi, Turkish, and Pakistani diplomats working to de-escalate and revive nuclear negotiations. Egypt has significant exposure to Hormuz disruption through oil import costs, and to Red Sea instability that continues to divert shipping away from the Suez Canal.
Read full article → Al Jazeera · Times of Israel(5 Jul) An EnterpriseAM poll of 11 analysts found unanimous consensus for a July rate hold, as the CBE maintains a positive real rate margin exceeding 4%. However, Beltone Financial flagged that unfavourable base effects could push annual inflation to 16–17% in coming months, and explicitly said it is 'no longer ruling out a 100bps rate hike in Q3 2026'. Thndr economist Esraa Ahmed also cited the risk of another fuel price increase.
Read full article → EnterpriseAM(8 Jul) Commercial International Bank (CIB) raised the interest rate on its three-year fixed-rate savings certificate to 18%, effective July 7, aligning broadly with state-owned banks. Banking analyst Mohamed Abdel Aal interpreted the move not as a signal of an imminent rate cut, but as a hedge against rates remaining high for longer — a view echoed across the Egyptian banking sector ahead of the July 9 MPC meeting.
Read full article → DailyNewsEgypt(3 Jul) HC Securities noted in a research note ahead of the MPC meeting that the latest 12-month treasury bill yield of approximately 24.7% implies a real interest rate of around 6.8% against its revised 12-month inflation forecast of ~14%. The firm argued this positive real return buffer is key to sustaining foreign portfolio inflows into Egyptian pound debt and keeping the carry trade attractive, supporting the CBE's case for keeping rates on hold.
Read full article → Arab Finance · HC Securities(3 Jul) HC Securities cited a 27% year-on-year increase in Suez Canal revenues to $1.56bn in the first four months of 2026, reflecting partial recovery from the prior year's Houthi-driven disruption. However, the renewed US-Iran escalation and Houthi stance mean Red Sea risk persists, posing a material upside risk to Egyptian canal revenues and a downside risk to tourism receipts if the conflict broadens.
Read full article → HC Securities / Arab Finance(9 Jul) In its July MPC statement, the CBE confirmed real GDP growth slowed to approximately 5.0% in Q1 2026 from 5.3% in Q4 2025, constrained by geopolitical tensions, uncertain trade policies, and weak external demand. The central bank revised its full-year FY2025/26 growth forecast down to 4.9% from 5.1%, while noting non-petroleum manufacturing, trade, and communications continued to support activity.
Read full article → Trading Economics · Ahram Online · Middle East Observer(9 Jul) The Middle East Observer reported that market participants increasingly expect the CBE to resume its rate-cutting cycle at the August MPC meeting if inflation continues to moderate, as the June data showing -0.4% m/m CPI is encouraging. However, the central bank explicitly warned that its 7% (±2pp) Q4 2026 target is at risk from prolonged Hormuz conflict, fiscal pass-through, and global energy prices — and Goldman Sachs projected 200bps of hikes may be needed in Q3 2026.
Read full article → Middle East Observer · Focus Economics