Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Friday, 10 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Chip-stock rebound powered by SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut lifted Wall Street and EGX on 9–10 Jul even as renewed US-Iran strikes near the Strait of Hormuz kept Brent above $76 and 10-year UST yields elevated near 4.58%, while Egypt's CBE held rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting after June CPI eased to 14.3%.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,543.64+0.81%Dow Jones52,487.41+0.27%Nasdaq Composite26,206.89+1.30%FTSE 10010,472.45-0.16%DAX 40~25,118+0.53%CAC 40~7,890+0.90%Gold~$4,173Brent~$76.99USD/EGP49.61+0.01%EUR/USD1.1437+0.03%CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,543.64+0.81%Dow Jones52,487.41+0.27%Nasdaq Composite26,206.89+1.30%FTSE 10010,472.45-0.16%DAX 40~25,118+0.53%CAC 40~7,890+0.90%Gold~$4,173Brent~$76.99USD/EGP49.61+0.01%EUR/USD1.1437+0.03%CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
52,679.40
+1.21%
S&P 500
7,543.64
+0.81%
Gold
~$4,173
USD / EGP
49.61
+0.01%
Brent
~$76.99
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
52,679
▲ +358% 5y (Jan-2021→Jul-2026)
8,20620,14832,09044,03155,973 2021-012022-012023-012024-012025-012026-07-10 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
49.61
▲ +215% 5y (Jan-2021→Jul-2026)
12.9123.0333.1543.2753.39 2021-012022-012023-012024-012025-012026-07-09 USD / EGP
CBE Overnight Deposit Rate · %
19.00%
▼ -825bps from peak (27.25% in Dec-2024); unchanged Jul-2026
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 2021-012022-012023-012024-012025-012026-07-09 CBE Overnight Deposit Rate
S&P 500 · index
7,543.64
▲ +103% 5y (Jan-2021→Jul-2026)
3,4084,5185,6296,7407,850 2021-012022-012023-012024-012025-012026-07-09 S&P 500
Fed Funds Target (upper) · %
3.75% (upper)
▼ -175bps from Sep-2024 peak; on hold since last cut
-0.2%1.4%2.9%4.4%5.9% 2021-012022-012023-012024-012025-012026-07-09 Fed Funds Target (upper)
Gold · $/oz
~$4,173
▲ +126% 5y (Jan-2021→Jul-2026)
1,6102,2982,9873,6754,363 2021-012022-012023-012024-012025-012026-07-09 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 9 Jul close; chip rebound led by Micron +4.5%, Sandisk +7.6%7,543.64+0.81%
Dow Jones 9 Jul close; Cisco +3.77%, AmEx +2.94%, GS +2.51%52,487.41+0.27%
Nasdaq Composite 9 Jul close; SK Hynix Nasdaq debut 10 Jul26,206.89+1.30%
FTSE 100 9 Jul close; AstraZeneca -8% dragged index despite broader European gains10,472.45-0.16%
DAX 40 9 Jul close; crossed 25,000 led by Infineon, Siemens~25,118+0.53%
CAC 40 9 Jul close; tech/semiconductor sentiment drove gains~7,890+0.90%
Nikkei 225 9 Jul close (Yahoo Finance data)67,743.85+1.38%
Hang Seng 9 Jul close24,030.18-0.70%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 10 Jul close (EGX); up 25%+ YTD52,679.40+1.21%
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit — Unchanged — 3rd consecutive hold; effective 15 Feb 2026 after 100bps cut.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending — Unchanged — 3rd consecutive hold.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit19.00%Unchanged — 3rd consecutive hold; effective 15 Feb 2026 after 100bps cut
Overnight lending20.00%Unchanged — 3rd consecutive hold
Main operation19.50%Unchanged
Discount rate19.50%Unchanged; MPC decision 9 Jul 2026
Treasury bills
12-month T-bill (364-day)~24.70%Latest auction yield (HC Securities / Arab Finance, ~5 Jul 2026); implies real rate ~+6.8% on 14% inflation estimate
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.58%
1-year UST4.02%
2-year UST4.16%
3-year UST4.18%
5-year UST4.27%
10-year UST4.54%
30-year UST5.05%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.18%
United Kingdom
BoE Bank Rate~4.25%
SONIA overnight~4.20%
10-year Gilt yield~4.80%
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP49.61+0.01%
EUR / EGP56.74+0.13%
GBP / EGP66.48+0.03%
SAR / EGP~13.22n/a
EUR / USD1.1437+0.03%
GBP / USD1.3400+0.10%
USD / JPY~159.33-0.21%
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD 9 Jul 2026 (Yahoo Finance); eased ~1.7% on the day amid broad risk-on rotation to equities▼ ~$4,173
Brent Crude · Sep-26 9 Jul early (Reuters / Offshore Technology); fell ~1.3% as traders weighed Hormuz diplomacy signals after Trump said Iran 'called wanting a deal'▼ ~$76.99
WTI Crude · Aug-26 9 Jul early (Reuters); down ~1.2%; Goldman Sachs base-case $75–85 range over next month▼ ~$72.64
Natural Gas · Henry Hub 9 Jul 2026 (Investing.com futures); -3.35% on the day▼ ~$3.23
05

Global Economy

Energy · Geopolitics

US strikes Iran for second consecutive day; Hormuz traffic near standstill as ceasefire collapses

(9 Jul) US forces launched fresh strikes on Iranian targets for a second straight day, aiming to protect freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran attacked three cargo ships and a Qatari LNG tanker. Trump declared the interim ceasefire 'over' and threatened to target Iran's Kharg Island export terminal. Vessel-tracking data showed Hormuz transits grinding to a near-halt, raising fears over the ~20% of global oil and LNG that normally transits the strait.

Read full article → Bloomberg · Reuters · Al Jazeera
Equities · Tech

Chip stocks rebound as SK Hynix Nasdaq debut seen 7× oversubscribed; S&P 500 +0.81%

(9 Jul) Wall Street indices closed higher on Thursday, led by a sharp rebound in semiconductor names ahead of SK Hynix's hotly anticipated Nasdaq debut on 10 July. Micron rose 4.5%, Sandisk +7.6%, and Applied Materials +3.2%. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF climbed 2.5%. The moves helped investors look past escalating US-Iran hostilities, while declining oil prices and easing bond yields added to the positive tone.

Read full article → CNBC · Stocktwits
US · Rates

10-year UST yield hits 4.58%, highest since May, as oil-driven inflation fears build Fed hike expectations

(8–9 Jul) The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.58%–4.60% — its highest since mid-May — as surging oil prices from renewed US-Iran hostilities rekindled fears of sticky inflation. Fed futures showed the implied probability of a September rate hike rising to ~70%, up from 58% the prior day. FOMC minutes released in the period highlighted that 'a few' officials saw the case for a hike given robust labour markets and elevated core readings.

Read full article → Trading Economics · CNBC
US · Labour

US jobless claims fall to lowest since May at 215,000, supporting labour market resilience narrative

(9 Jul) Initial jobless claims for the week ended 4 July fell 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000, below the 218,000 consensus and the lowest level since 23 May. Continuing claims edged up 8,000 to 1.814 million. The resilient labour market data added to hawks' arguments at the Fed, reinforcing the case for a cautious hold or possible hike.

Read full article → CNBC
Europe · Markets

FTSE 100 underperforms European peers as AstraZeneca -8% after heart drug trial failure

(9 Jul) London's FTSE 100 closed 0.16% lower at 10,472.45 as AstraZeneca fell nearly 8% after its heart disease drug Wainua failed a late-stage clinical trial. Continental European peers outperformed: DAX gained ~0.53% crossing 25,000 and the CAC 40 rose 0.90%, both buoyed by semiconductor sentiment tied to the SK Hynix debut. The FTSE's defensive weighting limited its participation in the tech-driven rally.

Read full article → CNBC · BBNTimes
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Real GDP growth (FY25/26 CBE forecast)
4.9%
-0.2pp revision
Headline urban inflation (June 2026)
14.3%
-0.3pp m/m
Core inflation (June 2026)
14.3%
+0.5pp vs May
Net International Reserves (end-Jun 2026)
$55.07 bn
+$2.0bn vs May
CBE overnight deposit rate
19.00%
Unchanged (3rd hold)
Remittances (11M FY25/26)
$43.1 bn
+~38% y/y
CBE · MPC

CBE holds all four policy rates unchanged for third consecutive meeting — June inflation eases to 14.3%

(9 Jul) The Monetary Policy Committee kept the overnight deposit rate at 19.00%, the overnight lending rate at 20.00%, and both the main operation rate and discount rate at 19.50% — its third consecutive hold since the 100bps cut in February 2026. The decision was accompanied by new CAPMAS data showing annual urban headline inflation slowed to 14.3% in June from 14.6% in May, driven by a 3.2% m/m fall in food prices. Analysts at Beltone Financial now see a non-trivial chance of a 100bps hike in 3Q 2026 if headline prints reach 16–17%.

Read full article → Egypt Today · Middle East Observer · DailyNewsEgypt
CBE · Inflation

Egypt June urban CPI eases to 14.3%; core ticks up to 14.3% — paves way for eventual easing if trend holds

(9 Jul) CAPMAS reported annual urban inflation at 14.3% in June 2026, slipping for the third consecutive month. Monthly CPI contracted 0.4%, one of the few negative monthly prints this year, led by a seasonal drop in food and non-alcoholic beverages (-3.2% m/m). Separately, the CBE reported core CPI rose to 14.3% y/y (from 13.8% in May) while m/m core was a muted +0.3%. The CBE will publish its monthly inflation note on 15 July.

Read full article → Middle East Observer · Amwal Al Ghad · CBE
CBE · Reserves

Egypt's net international reserves hit $55.07 bn at end-June 2026 — provisional record

(8 Jul) The CBE published a provisional figure showing net international reserves reached USD 55,072.3 million at end-June 2026, up from USD 53.1 bn at end-May. The improvement reflects continued inflows from remittances, tourism, and — increasingly — EU macro-financial assistance. The reserve buffer provides Egypt with approximately 8+ months of import cover.

Read full article → CBE
CBE · Remittances

Worker remittances hit $43.1 bn in eleven months of FY25/26 — surging ~38% y/y

(9 Jul) The CBE reported remittances from Egyptians working abroad reached USD 43.1 billion over the first eleven months of FY 2025/26, a record and a ~38% year-on-year increase. HC Securities noted remittances rose c38% y/y to USD 17 bn in the first four months of calendar 2026 alone. The surge reflects the stronger EGP carry and formal channel incentives.

Read full article → CBE · Arab Finance / HC Securities
EU · Financing

Egypt expects €1.5 bn EU macro-financial tranche 'within days'; last instalment targeted for autumn

(4–5 Jul) Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty announced Egypt expects to receive €1.5 billion — the first of two remaining tranches from the EU's €5 billion macro-financial assistance programme — within days, with the final €1.5 bn tranche targeted by early autumn. The EU has disbursed €2 bn to date (€1 bn in Jan 2025, €1 bn earlier in 2026). European Commissioner Suica called Egypt 'an indispensable partner' for Mediterranean stability. The broader EU package totals €7.4 bn including €1.8 bn in investment guarantees.

Read full article → Reuters · Arab News · Middle East Online
EGX · Markets

EGX 30 rises 1.21% to 52,679 on 10 July — up ~25% YTD; privatisation pipeline gains momentum

(10 Jul) The EGX 30 closed at 52,679.40, up 632 points (+1.21%), tracking global risk-on sentiment driven by the chip-stock rebound. The index has gained approximately 25% year-to-date and is 61.7% higher than a year ago (Investing.com). Turnover has been elevated, running at multi-month highs in recent sessions.

Read full article → Yahoo Finance / EGX · Investing.com
EGX · Privatisation

EGX Vice Chairman finalises six new state-company listings; petroleum IPO pipeline gathering steam

(recent) EGX Vice Chairman Mohamed Sabry finalised terms for the temporary listing of six state-owned companies: four on the main market (Sinai Manganese, Yayat, El Abd Contracting, El Nasr Housing) and two on the SME segment (National Assets Management, NIRCO). Separately, Premier Madbouly met Petroleum Minister Badawi to review plans to list ten petroleum companies on the EGX as part of the privatisation programme the IMF monitors as a structural benchmark.

Read full article → African Markets · Enterprise AM
EGX · IPO Pipeline

Quick Fuel IPO timeline set; Safi bids in; Elab files for temporary EGX listing

(recent, Enterprise AM) Three long-running privatisation plays are moving simultaneously on the EGX: offers have been received for Safi, an IPO timeline has been finalised for Quick Fuel (Wataneya's vehicle — 172 stations, with Taqa Arabia as operator holding a 10% stake), and Elab has filed for a temporary EGX listing. Qalaa Holdings also disclosed plans to buy an additional 11.45% of Taqa Arabia to add to its existing ~6.2% position.

Read full article → Enterprise AM
Suez Canal · Energy

Egypt's Suez Canal revenues up ~27% y/y in 4M26 despite $10.5 bn cumulative revenue loss from regional conflict

(4–5 Jul) Foreign Minister Abdelatty stated Egypt has incurred approximately $10.5 billion in cumulative Suez Canal revenue losses from disrupted Red Sea navigation. However, HC Securities separately noted Suez Canal revenues have risen ~27% y/y to USD 1.56 bn in the first four months of 2026, reflecting some traffic normalisation along alternative routes before the latest US-Iran flare-up. The CBE's Q1 2026 Monetary Policy Report highlighted Canal receipts as a key FX source.

Read full article → Egypt Today · Arab Finance / HC Securities
FX · EGP

Egyptian pound at EGP 49.6/USD — appreciated ~11% from April peak of 54.7; YTD depreciation only ~3%

(9–10 Jul) The USD/EGP rate was around 49.61 on 10 July, within a tight recent range of 48.78–49.67. HC Securities noted the EGP had appreciated ~11% from its early-April peak of ~EGP 54.7/USD, limiting the YTD depreciation to ~3%. The pound's relative stability — supported by record reserves, strong remittances and portfolio inflows — has been a key anchor for the CBE's hold decision.

Read full article → Investing.com · Trading Economics · HC Securities / Arab Finance
CBE · GDP

CBE revises FY25/26 growth forecast down to 4.9% from 5.1%; 1Q26 nowcast 4.8–5.0%

(9 Jul MPC statement) The CBE revised its full-year FY 2025/26 real GDP growth forecast to 4.9%, from a prior 5.1%, citing weaker Suez Canal revenues and geopolitical headwinds. Its 1Q 2026 nowcast was 4.8–5.0%, down from 5.3% growth in 4Q 2025. Non-petroleum manufacturing, trade and communications continue to support activity, but the energy sector and tourism uncertainty weigh on the outlook.

Read full article → Ahram Online · CBE MPC Statement
Bloomberg · Egypt Inflation

Bloomberg: Egypt inflation slows for third month ahead of rate decision — cautious easing cycle may resume

(9 Jul) Bloomberg reported that Egyptian inflation slowed for the third consecutive month — the June CAPMAS print subsequently confirmed at 14.3% — though new risks from US-Iran peace-talk fragility prompted the MPC to maintain its cautious stance. Analysts flagged that if disinflation continues through August, the CBE could resume rate cuts in 3Q 2026, though potential fuel subsidy adjustments and electricity tariff hikes pose upside inflation risks.

Read full article → Bloomberg