Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Thursday, 9 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
US-Iran ceasefire collapse dominates: oil surged 5%+ to ~$79/bbl, Dow shed 577 pts on inflation-re-escalation fears, hawkish FOMC minutes split 9-to-8 on a possible rate hike lifted the 10y UST to 4.58%, while the AI-led Nasdaq eked a small gain and gold sold off on rising real-yield pressure.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,482.71-0.28%Dow Jones52,348.39-1.09%Nasdaq Composite25,870.65+0.20%FTSE 10010,418.60-0.67%DAX24,948.18+0.20%CAC 408,271.57+0.23%Gold$4,068Brent$79.25USD/EGP49.55-0.13%EUR/USD1.1452+0.15%CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,482.71-0.28%Dow Jones52,348.39-1.09%Nasdaq Composite25,870.65+0.20%FTSE 10010,418.60-0.67%DAX24,948.18+0.20%CAC 408,271.57+0.23%Gold$4,068Brent$79.25USD/EGP49.55-0.13%EUR/USD1.1452+0.15%CBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
50,344
n/a intraday
S&P 500
7,482.71
-0.28%
Gold
$4,068
USD / EGP
49.55
-0.13%
Brent
$79.25
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
50,344
▲ +350% 5y
7,69820,39333,08945,78558,480 20212022202320242025-072026-05-112026-07-09 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP
49.55
▲ +215% 5y
12.9822.8332.6742.5252.37 2021202220232024-032025-012026-07-09 USD / EGP
CBE Policy Rate · %
19.00%
▼ -825bps since Apr 2025
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 20212022202320242025-042026-022026-04-02 CBE Policy Rate
S&P 500 · index
7,482.71
▲ +57% 5y
3,5484,6045,6616,7177,773 20212022202320242025-042026-07-08 S&P 500
Fed Funds · %
3.50–3.75%
— unchanged Jun 2026
-0.3%1.2%2.8%4.3%5.8% 2021202220232024-092025-012026-06 Fed Funds
Gold · $/oz
$4,068
▼ ~+120% vs Jan 2025
1,6472,2972,9473,5974,247 20212022202320242025-012026-04-302026-07-08 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Jul 8 close; Iran-ceasefire shock; Nasdaq diverged positive7,482.71-0.28%
Dow Jones Jul 8 close; financials/industrials led decline52,348.39-1.09%
Nasdaq Composite Jul 8 close; chipmakers rebounded, Broadcom +4.8%25,870.65+0.20%
FTSE 100 Jul 8 close; energy-inflation concerns10,418.60-0.67%
DAX Jul 8 close24,948.18+0.20%
CAC 40 Jul 8 close8,271.57+0.23%
Nikkei 225 Jul 8/9 session67,743.85+1.38%
Hang Seng Jul 9 close; reversed prior-day 3% surge; MiniMax lock-up expiry weighed24,030-0.70%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 Jul 9 live; opened 51,443; 52-wk range 29,741–54,97850,344n/a intraday
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit — unchanged — MPC held 21 May 2026; easing cycle paused.
On hold
Egypt · CBE
20.00%
Overnight lending — unchanged — MPC held 21 May 2026.
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — on hold.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit19.00%unchanged — MPC held 21 May 2026; easing cycle paused
Overnight lending20.00%unchanged — MPC held 21 May 2026
Main operation (1-wk repo)19.50%unchanged — MPC held 21 May 2026
Discount rate19.50%unchanged — confirmed Apr 2, 2026 MPC; CBE MPR Q1-2026
Treasury bills
91-day~26.5%CBE auction last updated 06 Jul 2026; secondary-market indicative yield post 170bps Q1 rise
182-day~26.8%CBE auction last updated 06 Jul 2026; indicative
273-day~27.0%indicative; CBE T-bills page last updated 06 Jul 2026
364-day~27.2%indicative; CBE T-bills page last updated 06 Jul 2026
Treasury bonds
3-year~27.5%CBE T-bonds fixed coupon page last updated 29 Jun 2026; indicative secondary
5-year~27.8%indicative secondary market
10-year~28.2%indicative; yields rose avg 170bps Q1 2026 per CBE MPR
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target on hold3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)3.58%
1-year UST4.06%
2-year UST4.21%
3-year UST4.21%
5-year UST4.31%
10-year UST4.56%
30-year UST5.06%
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility2.25%
ECB main refinancing2.40%
ECB marginal lending2.65%
€STR2.18%
United Kingdom
BoE Bank Rate BoE MPC; last cut May 20264.25%
SONIA overnight BoE SONIA; tracks Bank Rate4.20%
10-year Gilt indicative Jul 8; tracking UST move on Iran inflation shock4.68%
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP49.55-0.13%
EUR / EGP56.74+0.13%
GBP / EGP66.48+0.03%
SAR / EGP13.21flat
EUR / USD1.1452+0.15%
GBP / USD1.3412+0.10%
USD / JPY146.20-0.30%
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD Spot gold, Jul 8 close; dropped 0.9% as hawkish FOMC + Iran oil spike lifted real yields; Aug futures $4,095▼ $4,068
Brent Crude Jul 9 early morning (Fortune); settled $78.19 Jul 8 (+5.43%) on Trump ceasefire-over declaration▲ $79.25
WTI Crude Aug futures; Jul 8 CNBC close +4.37%; Iran Hormuz disruption fears▲ $73.52
Copper · HG indicative Jul 8; pressured by China demand uncertainty but partially supported by AI/data-centre buildout— ~$4.55/lb
05

Global Economy

Geopolitics · Iran-US

Trump declares Iran ceasefire 'over' at NATO Ankara summit; US and Iran exchange fresh strikes

(8 Jul) President Donald Trump said the interim ceasefire agreement with Iran is 'over' at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, after the US launched a 'series of powerful strikes' against Iran in retaliation for Tehran's attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by targeting 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. The escalation sent Brent crude surging 5.43% to $78.19 and pushed the 10-year UST yield to 4.58% on inflation-re-escalation fears.

Read full article → CNBC
Central Banks · Fed

FOMC minutes reveal 9-to-8 split on a possible 2026 rate hike; market prices 67% chance of September hike

(8 Jul) Minutes from the Fed's June 16–17 meeting — the first chaired by Kevin Warsh — showed policymakers split, with a minority seeing a case for hiking rates if inflation stays elevated and a majority still open to cuts if prices ease. The release reinforced hawkish market pricing: CME FedWatch puts a 67% probability on a September rate hike, up from 62% the prior day. Eurozone bond yields also hit four-week highs on the read-across to global inflation risk.

Read full article → CNBC · Barchart
Energy · Oil

Brent tops $79/bbl on Jul 9 as Iran Hormuz threat intensifies; US revokes Iranian oil-sale waiver

(8–9 Jul) The US Treasury revoked the licence that had allowed Iranian crude sales following attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker. Brent surged to $78.19 at Wednesday's close and pushed above $79 Thursday morning. The escalation marks a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of a supply glut driven by OPEC+ output increases, reigniting energy-inflation concerns globally.

Read full article → Trading Economics · Fortune
Markets · Equities

Wall Street closes mixed Jul 8: Dow -577pts on Iran shock; Nasdaq edges up as Broadcom +4.8% lifts chips

(8 Jul) The Dow shed 576.76 points (-1.09%) to 52,348.39, while the S&P 500 fell 0.28% to 7,482.71. The Nasdaq bucked the trend, rising 0.20% to 25,870.65, lifted by Broadcom's gain after it expanded its Apple supply agreement and chipmakers broadly rebounding. Credit-sensitive names led losses: JPMorgan -2.5%, Visa -1.3%, American Express -3.8%.

Read full article → Yahoo Finance · Trading Economics
Tech · AI

Micron plans $250bn US chip-plant investment; SK Hynix US IPO 7x oversubscribed

(8–9 Jul) Micron Technology announced plans to expand US semiconductor manufacturing with $250 billion in new plant spending to meet AI-driven demand, sending a strong signal of domestic capex commitment. Separately, SK Hynix's US listing was reported to be more than seven times oversubscribed, underscoring strong investor appetite for memory chip exposure amid the AI buildout.

Read full article → Bloomberg
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Real GDP growth (FY26F)
4.3–4.6%
+0.2pp vs FY25
Headline inflation (May 2026)
14.6%
-0.3pp m/m
Net FX reserves (Jun 2026)
$55.07bn
+$1.94bn m/m
CBE overnight deposit rate
19.00%
unchanged
Remittances (11m FY25/26)
$43.1bn
record
Primary fiscal balance (FY25)
+3.5% of GDP
improving
CBE · Inflation

CBE releases June 2026 CPI — data published today

(9 Jul) The Central Bank of Egypt published its June 2026 CPI press release today, following the May reading of 14.6% annual urban headline inflation (May was the lowest since February 2026, as the transport shock from March fuel-price hikes faded). The June print is expected to show further moderation given base effects, though the renewed Iran conflict and oil spike above $79/bbl pose fresh upside risks to Q3 inflation. CBE projects inflation to average 16.0–17.0% in full-year 2026.

Read full article → CBE
CBE · FX Reserves

Egypt's NIR climbs to record $55.07bn at end-June 2026, up 3.65% m/m

(8 Jul) The Central Bank of Egypt reported net international reserves of $55.072 billion at end-June 2026 (provisional), up from $53.134 billion at end-May — the highest level on record and a sharp recovery from $49.5bn at end-September 2025. The rise reflects strong remittance inflows, Suez Canal receipts (albeit curtailed by Hormuz tensions), and FDI. Reserves now cover approximately 8+ months of imports.

Read full article → Zawya · CBE
CBE · Remittances

Egyptian diaspora remittances hit $43.1bn over eleven months — a record

(9 Jul) The CBE reported that remittances from Egyptians working abroad totalled $43.1 billion over the eleven months ending May 2026, a record pace equivalent to roughly 10% of GDP. The CBE's Q1 2026 Monetary Policy Report noted remittances rose from 6.8% of GDP in 2021 to 10.2% in 2025, materially strengthening Egypt's external position ahead of the Iran-US shock.

Read full article → CBE
CBE · Diplomatic

CBE Governor meets Egypt's Foreign Minister and Afreximbank President

(9 Jul) The Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt held meetings today with Egypt's Minister of Foreign Affairs and the President of the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank). The CBE is also preparing to host Afreximbank's 33rd Annual Meetings at El Alamein, signalling continued engagement with pan-African financial institutions as Egypt seeks to diversify its external financing base.

Read full article → CBE
IMF · Growth

IMF upgrades Egypt's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.6% in July WEO update

(8 Jul) The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook update raised Egypt's 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in 2025, making Egypt an outperformer in a MENA region facing broader contraction. The Fund cited Egypt's resilient remittance base and reform momentum, while warning that a renewed Middle East conflict — now materialising — is the most imminent downside risk, with potential portfolio outflows and current-account stress if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.

Read full article → Egypt Daily News
Macro · Iran Impact

Egypt government activates Iran-war economic scenarios as oil spikes above $79

(8 Jul) PM Mostafa Madbouly directed the ministerial economic group to update comprehensive scenarios for handling the economic fallout of renewed US-Iran military operations. Egypt faces twin pressures: higher import costs from elevated oil prices (Brent +5% on July 8) and potential reduction in Suez Canal revenues if Hormuz transit risks persist. The government is reviewing FY 2026/27 investment estimates accordingly.

Read full article → Egypt Today · Daily News Egypt
Ras El Hekma

PM Madbouly reviews Ras El Hekma implementation with Modon Holding Chair

(8 Jul) Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly met with Jassem Al Zaabi, Chairperson of UAE sovereign developer Modon Holding, to review progress on implementing the flagship $35bn Ras El Hekma coastal development project. The project remains Egypt's largest FDI inflow in history. Progress updates signal that UAE investment commitments are being maintained despite regional geopolitical turbulence.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt
Industry · National Strategy

President Al-Sisi reviews Egypt's National Industrial Strategy 2026–2030

(8 Jul) President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi reviewed implementation of Egypt's National Industrial Strategy 2026–2030, which aims to expand manufacturing's share of GDP and reduce import dependency. GAFI CEO Mohamed Awad stated the Egyptian economy 'continues to strengthen', while the World Bank projected real GDP growth of 4.3% in FY26 supported by broadening industrial output and stronger FDI.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt
Fiscal · Debt

Egypt's central government debt falls to 82.5% of GDP at end-FY25; primary surplus at 3.5%

(8 Jul) The World Bank confirmed that Egypt's primary fiscal surplus reached 3.5% of GDP in FY25, supported by tax revenue gains and spending restraint, while central government debt declined to 82.5% of GDP from 90.1% at end-FY24. However, interest payments remain high at 10.6% of GDP, limiting fiscal space, with the debt-service burden a key constraint on the pace of further CBE rate cuts.

Read full article → World Bank
External · BoP

Egypt current account deficit narrowed to 3.4% of GDP in CY2025; FDI at 3.8% of GDP

(8 Jul) The CBE Q1 2026 MPR confirmed Egypt's current account deficit narrowed from 4.0% in 2021 to 3.4% of GDP in 2025, while FDI rose from 1.1% to 3.8% of GDP. The capital and financial account recorded a net inflow of $6.8bn in Q4 2025 — its highest since Q2 2024. However, portfolio outflows estimated at $6.1bn in the first half of March 2026 underscore Iran-shock vulnerability.

Read full article → CBE MPR Q1 2026
Investment · GAFI

GAFI CEO: Egyptian investment environment 'continues to strengthen'; Suez Canal Economic Zone growing

(8 Jul) Mohamed Awad, CEO of GAFI, stated that Egypt's investment climate continues to improve, citing the growing number of companies operating in the Suez Canal Economic Zone and other industrial zones. Minister of Investment Mohamed Farid separately confirmed the ministry's openness to supporting entrepreneurship. Egypt-Germany economic relations are also gaining momentum on rising trade volumes and expanding German FDI.

Read full article → Daily News Egypt
Banking · ISO 20022

Egyptian banks adopt ISO 20022 international financial messaging standard

(21 Jun) Egyptian banks operating in Egypt formally adopted the ISO 20022 standard for financial transfers, per a CBE directive, aligning Egypt's payment infrastructure with global norms. The move enhances interoperability with international correspondent banks, reduces settlement friction, and supports the CBE's broader financial-sector modernisation agenda under the National Payments Strategy.

Read full article → CBE