Global risk appetite retreats mid-week as a Samsung earnings miss sparks a semiconductor sell-off and US crude oil licence revocation on Iran renews Strait of Hormuz supply fears, pushing oil above $73 while gold steadies near $4,150 ahead of the first FOMC minutes under Chair Kevin Warsh.
5-Year Context
EGX 30
50,344
▲ +338% 5y (vs ~11,500 end-2021)
USD / EGP
48.81
▼ EGP strengthened ~6% past month; 52-wk range 46.64–54.86
CBE Overnight Deposit Rate
19.00%
— -825bps Apr 2025–Feb 2026; on hold since 15 Feb 2026
S&P 500
7,503.85
▼ +9.6% H1 2026; ~+57% 5y
Fed Funds (effective / target)
3.63% (effective SOFR proxy); target 3.50–3.75%
— Market pricing ~50% chance Sep hike after June jobs miss
Gold · XAU/USD
~$4,150
— ~+127% 5y; off Jan 2026 ATH; -3.6% vs end-2025
Global & Egypt Equities
S&P 500 · Samsung earnings miss triggered chip sell-off; Nasdaq-100 also added SpaceX debut
Americas
7,503.85
▼ -0.45%
Dow Jones · Retreated from record 53,055 set Mon 06 Jul
FTSE 100 · Mild gain; breakout from 18-week triangle per Emkay
Europe
10,665.88
▲ +0.13%
DAX · AI trade reversal pressured tech-heavy bourse
Europe
25,465.25
▼ -1.37%
CAC 40 · Closed 0.31% lower per Trading Economics
Europe
8,436.24
▼ -0.51%
Nikkei 225 · KOSPI fell 4.9% on Samsung miss; Nikkei less impacted; Emkay support ~67,500
Asia
69,490.03
▼ -0.36%
Hang Seng · Marginal gain; Emkay flags bearish intermediate trend, resistance 24,500
Asia
23,541.22
▲ +0.19%
EGX 30 · Down from May record 54,977; -4.5% past month per Trading Economics; +54% y/y
MENA
50,344.37
▼ n/a – EGX closed 07 Jul (data is last confirmed session)
Central Bank of Egypt
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit rate
Unchanged – on hold since 15 Feb 2026; 825bps cut Apr 2025–Feb 2026
19.00%
Overnight lending rate
Unchanged since 15 Feb 2026
20.00%
Main operation rate
Unchanged since 15 Feb 2026
19.50%
Discount rate
Unchanged since 15 Feb 2026; also reduced RRR from 18% to 16% at Feb meeting
19.50%
Treasury bills
91-day
Latest auction yield not verified today – see gaps
n/v
182-day
Latest auction yield not verified today – see gaps
n/v
273-day
Latest auction yield not verified today – see gaps
n/v
364-day
Latest auction yield not verified today – see gaps
n/v
Treasury bonds
3-year
Secondary-market yield not verified today – see gaps
n/v
5-year
Secondary-market yield not verified today – see gaps
n/v
10-year
Secondary-market yield not verified today – see gaps
n/v
Global Benchmark Rates
United States
Fed funds target
On hold; FOMC minutes due 09 Jul 2026; ~50% market-implied Sep hike prob
3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)
NY Fed published 06 Jul 2026
3.63%
2-year UST
Not verified today – see gaps
n/v
10-year UST
Approximate – Vietnamese source cited 10y UST back at 4.499% on 07 Jul; not independently confirmed from Treasury.gov
~4.50%
30-year UST
Not verified today – see gaps
n/v
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility rate
Not verified today – see gaps (last known cut path in 2025)
n/v
€STR
Not verified today – see gaps
n/v
3M EURIBOR
Not verified today – see gaps
n/v
10-year Bund
ECB AAA euro-area 10Y spot rate as of 03 Jul 2026 per SOFRRate dashboard
~3.01%
United Kingdom
BoE Bank Rate
Not verified today – see gaps
n/v
SONIA
Not verified today – see gaps
n/v
10-year Gilt
UK nominal par gilt yield per SOFRRate dashboard as of 02 Jul 2026
~4.75%
Currencies & Commodities
Currencies
USD / EGP
48.81
▼ -0.08%
EUR / EGP
n/v
— n/v
GBP / EGP
n/v
— n/v
SAR / EGP
n/v
— n/v
EUR / USD
n/v
— n/v
GBP / USD
n/v
— n/v
USD / JPY
n/v
— n/v
Commodities
Gold · XAU/USD
Spot ~$4,179 on 07 Jul (USAGold); ~$4,150 early 08 Jul (Vietnam); retreating from Jan 2026 ATH; rate-hike odds fall after June jobs miss of 57k
— ~$4,150/oz
Brent Crude · ICE
Opened $72.10 on 07 Jul (Forbes); US revoked Iran oil waiver, pushing intraday to $76+ on Tue; OPEC+ adding 188k bpd in Aug; Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic recovering
— ~$72.55/bbl
WTI Crude · NYMEX
Opened $68.65 on 07 Jul (Forbes); Trading Economics cited $70.53 on 07 Jul +2.9%; 52-wk range $54.98–$117.63 (war spike Apr 2026)
▲ ~$68.65–70.53/bbl
Natural Gas · Henry Hub
Investing.com Natural Gas Futures $3.231 on 07 Jul, -3.35% on day; Wood Mackenzie sees Henry Hub trending to $5 by 2035 on AI/LNG demand
▼ ~$3.23/MMBtu
Global Markets
US · Labour Market
June nonfarm payrolls disappoint at 57k, sharply below 110k forecast
US June nonfarm payrolls rose only 57,000 — the smallest monthly gain in four months and well below consensus of 110,000 — with downward revisions to the prior two months. The data cut the CME-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike from 66% to 50%, providing a partial floor under gold and Treasuries. Traders now focus on Wednesday's FOMC minutes — the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, who withheld his personal dot — for rate-path guidance. — Trading Economics, USAGold.com, SOFRRate.com
US · Iran · Oil
Treasury revokes Iran oil licence; Brent spikes above $76 before settling back near $72
A US Treasury Department revocation of the waiver permitting Iranian oil sales, reported Tuesday 07 Jul, pushed Brent crude sharply above $76 intraday before easing. An Iranian Foreign Minister statement warned that final peace negotiations could stall if geopolitical threats persist, raising fresh concerns for the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. OPEC+ separately agreed to raise output by 188,000 bpd in August — its fifth consecutive monthly increase — partially offsetting the price spike. — CNBC, Trading Economics, Forbes
Tech · Chips
Samsung 19-fold profit surge still misses high-end estimates; global chip sell-off follows
Samsung Electronics reported a near-19-fold year-on-year profit jump for Q2 2026 but came short of the most optimistic analyst forecasts, triggering a 4.9% fall in South Korea's KOSPI. The disappointment boiled into US markets: the Nasdaq fell 1.16% on 07 Jul as Micron dropped 4.7%, Broadcom, KLA, Marvell and AMD also declined, and the VanEck SMH ETF shed over 3%. SpaceX simultaneously debuted on the Nasdaq-100 after a controversial fast-track inclusion, falling 6.8% on day one. — CNBC, The Street, Yahoo Finance
US · Dow Record
Dow closes above 53,000 for first time on Monday before profit-taking Tuesday
US equities started the week strongly: the Dow hit a record 53,055.91 (+0.29%) on Monday 06 Jul — its first close above 53,000 — with the S&P 500 up 0.72% to 7,537.43 and the Nasdaq +1.12% to 26,121.16, led by semiconductor and Big Tech gains on AI optimism and Foxconn's strong quarterly results. US H1 2026 performance: S&P 500 +9.6%, Nasdaq +12.8%, Dow +8.9%, Russell 2000 +22%. — CNBC, Yahoo Finance, The Street
Strait of Hormuz · Shipping
LNG tanker struck near Oman coast; vessel traffic slowly normalising through Hormuz
A fully laden LNG carrier owned by a Qatar state shipping company was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, renewing shipowner concerns and raising questions over the durability of the US-Iran peace agreement. Despite the incident, at least eight Japan-linked vessels exited Hormuz, including five supertankers with 2 million-barrel capacity each, signalling gradual normalisation. Saudi Aramco cut Arab Light prices for Asian buyers by $11/bbl to a $1.50/bbl discount vs the Oman/Dubai benchmark — the first such discount since 2020. — CNBC, Trading Economics
Egypt in Focus
Real GDP growth
4.7% FY25/26 +0.2pp vs IMF Oct forecast
IMF raised FY25/26 forecast to 4.7%; H1 FY25/26 actual 5.3% (Finance Minister); IMF April WEO revised down to 4.2% on Iran shock
Urban headline inflation
14.6% -0.3pp m/m
May 2026 (CAPMAS/CBE); lowest since Feb 2026; peaked 15.2% March on fuel hike and Iran shock; Jun 2026 figure not yet published
Gross FX reserves
~$53bn Record high
April 2026 record per HC Securities; $52.5bn Jan 2026 (earlier CBE); reserves broadly stable end-Mar despite $3.2bn hot-money outflow Feb-Apr
CBE overnight deposit rate
19.00% -825bps since Apr 2025
On hold since 15 Feb 2026; MPC meets 10 Jul 2026 – unanimous analyst poll sees hold; Goldman Sachs warns of possible 200bp hike in Q3 if Iran shock persists
Primary fiscal balance
+3.5% of GDP Jul 2025–Mar 2026
FY25/26 primary surplus target 4% of GDP; tax revenues +29% y/y; overall deficit narrowed to 5.2% GDP (vs 6% year prior); medium-term target 5% primary surplus by FY26/27
On 29 Jun 2026, the IMF and Egypt reached a preliminary staff-level agreement on the 7th review under the EFF and 2nd review under the RSF, putting Cairo on track to draw ~$1.5bn under the EFF and ~$136m under the RSF. Total EFF/RSF disbursements will rise to ~$7.2bn once the IMF Board approves. The IMF noted Egypt's fiscal performance remained strong, with primary balance and tax revenue targets surpassed by end-March 2026, and that the flexible exchange rate had absorbed substantial portfolio outflows while keeping reserves broadly stable. — Bloomberg, Arab News, IMF
The IMF's 5th/6th review (approved Feb 2026, disbursing $2.3bn) flagged that structural reforms remain 'uneven', particularly state-asset divestment and SOE governance. Egypt's 46-month EFF arrangement, approved Dec 2022, runs through Dec 15, 2026. PM Madbouly stated in June that Egypt does not expect to need a new IMF programme after current arrangement expires. The Fund wants acceleration of privatisation prior to Board approval of the 7th review. — IMF, Arab News, AGBI
All 11 analysts polled by EnterpriseAM (05 Jul 2026) expect the CBE to hold the overnight deposit rate at 19.00% and lending rate at 20.00% at Thursday's MPC meeting. Annual urban inflation cooled to 14.6% in May (from 14.9% April), but monthly CPI accelerated to 1.6% and unfavourable base effects could push annual inflation toward 16–17% in Jun-Jul per Beltone Financial. Goldman Sachs (via FocusEconomics) projects possible 200bps of hikes in Q3 2026 to maintain positive real rate buffer. Electricity tariff increases or further fuel price hikes are upside risks. — EnterpriseAM, FocusEconomics
Moody's estimated Egypt suffered ~$8bn in capital outflows linked to the US-Israeli war against Iran and associated Strait of Hormuz near-closure. Foreign investors withdrew ~$3.2bn in hot money from Egypt's secondary treasury market between 19 Feb and end-April 2026. However, the IMF noted that portfolio inflows resumed following announcement of the US-Iran agreement, reversing most of the post-conflict EGP depreciation. Egypt raised fuel prices 14–17% in early March 2026 in response to higher global energy costs. The government also explored seeking $1.5–3bn in emergency IMF financing in April, though that has since been superseded by the 7th review agreement. — AGBI, Daily News Egypt, IMF via Arab News
The government's FY2026/27 budget (starting 01 Jul 2026) targets real GDP growth of 5.4%, introduces new tax, customs and investment incentive frameworks, and allocates EGP 90bn ($1.82bn) to export, manufacturing and entrepreneurship support programmes. Health and education spending rise 22.5% and 25% respectively per Planning Minister. The primary surplus target rises to 5% of GDP (from 4% in FY25/26), supported by removal of VAT exemptions and a new dividend tax on SOE profits. Parliament still needs to approve the real-estate tax and withholding tax on free-zone sales. — Arab News, Al-Ahram Online, Ahram Online
Egypt announced it has settled all outstanding arrears to foreign oil and gas companies, a key structural milestone that had long weighed on energy sector investment confidence and relationships with international operators. This follows a series of Gulf-backed FX injections and improved external financing flows in 2025–2026. — Al-Ahram Online
The EGX 30 peaked at 54,977 on 11 May 2026 — an all-time high — driven by strong FX inflows, disinflation momentum, and record foreign portfolio buying in early 2026. The index has since corrected ~8%, settling near 50,344 on 07 Jul, reflecting hot-money outflows tied to the Iran conflict, CBE hold stance, and rising domestic inflation risks. Trading Economics data show the index up 53.97% year-on-year and +1.6% past month. Volume on the most recent session exceeded 700m shares. — Investing.com, Trading Economics, TradingView
The IMF has consistently flagged slow divestment progress as a key shortcoming, with both the 5th/6th review report (Feb 2026) and the 7th review staff-level agreement (Jun 2026) noting that reducing the state's economic footprint is critical to securing private-sector-led and inclusive growth. The Fund wants Egypt to accelerate asset sales before end-2026 programme expiry. Parliament ratified legislative amendments in 2025 to ease asset disposals. Egypt's privatisation pipeline — including potential EGX listings of state-owned enterprises — remains a key driver of capital market sentiment. — IMF, Economy Middle East, Al-Ahram Online
Egypt's new fiscal year budget (from 01 Jul 2026) significantly boosts social spending: health expenditure rises 22.5% and education spending rises 25%, according to the Planning Minister. The moves are partly a social-compact condition under the IMF programme and reflect government commitments to increase the proportion of spending on health and education as part of the reform agenda. EGP 90bn is earmarked for export promotion, manufacturing and entrepreneurship. — Al-Ahram Online
The IMF's Feb 2026 review noted strong remittances and tourism receipts as key drivers narrowing Egypt's current account deficit to 4.2% of GDP in FY24/25. Finance Minister Kouchouk highlighted improvement in tourism, non-oil exports, remittances and FDI to international investors in April 2026 (Washington roundtable). The US-Iran ceasefire improved market sentiment and partially restored Red Sea and Suez Canal traffic, though full recovery in Canal revenues has yet to be confirmed. Suez Canal disruptions from regional conflict remain a key drag on Egypt's services balance. — IMF, Ecofin Agency
Despite improvements in the primary balance, Egypt's public debt stock and gross financing needs remain elevated, constraining fiscal space and medium-term growth, per the IMF. The 5th/6th review noted 'high public debt and elevated gross financing needs continue to constrain fiscal space and weigh on medium-term growth prospects'. The FY26/27 budget aligns with the reform agenda, including new tax measures aimed at domestic revenue mobilisation, while the government targets a 5% primary surplus to begin reducing the debt ratio. IMF estimated outstanding purchases and loans at SDR 7,209.35m as of 31 March 2026. — IMF, Al-Ahram Online
The CBE's MPC (May 2026) stated inflation is expected to remain above its 7% (±2pp) medium-term target on average through Q4 2026, before gradually easing in Q1 2027 and returning to target in H2 2027. Beltone Financial's Head of Research cautions that unfavourable base effects could push annual headline toward 16–17% in June–July 2026, and that another fuel price hike could push it to 18%, potentially triggering a 100bp rate increase in Q3 2026. The CBE raised its own average inflation forecast to 16% in 2026 and 12% in 2027 in its latest monetary policy report, a hawkish signal despite the current hold stance. — EnterpriseAM, Daily News Egypt, Trading Economics
Not verified today: EGX 30 confirmed close for 08 Jul 2026 specifically not available at time of research (Egyptian market session not yet captured; last confirmed print is 07 Jul) · CBE T-bill auction yields (91/182/273/364-day) – latest auction results not retrievable from CBE website today; CBE site returned errors · CBE secondary-market bond yields (3y/5y/10y Egyptian government bonds) – not verified today · EUR/EGP, GBP/EGP, SAR/EGP cross rates – not independently verified for 07–08 Jul 2026 · EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY spot rates – not verified for 07–08 Jul close (Dollar Index ~100.84 is available from Investing.com ticker but full FX pairs not confirmed) · ECB deposit facility rate exact current level and €STR – not verified today · BoE Bank Rate and SONIA – not verified today · 3M EURIBOR – not verified today · US 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields – not verified today (only indicative 10y ~4.50% sourced from a secondary Vietnamese news report) · Egypt June 2026 (latest month) CPI/urban inflation – CAPMAS data not yet released as of 08 Jul 2026 (May 14.6% is the most recent confirmed reading) · Egypt net FX reserves exact figure for June/July 2026 – April record ~$53bn is most recent confirmed; June not yet published · Suez Canal revenue figures for Q2 2026 – not verified today · Egypt remittance inflows – latest monthly data not verified today · EGX IPO pipeline specifics and privatisation transaction list – general commentary included but no specific verified deal data for today · Copper price – not retrieved in available searches; omitted per editorial rules rather than fabricated · Nikkei 225 exact close on 08 Jul 2026 (Tokyo session) – 07 Jul close 69,490 cited; 08 Jul not yet available · Hang Seng exact close on 08 Jul 2026 – 07 Jul data used · CBE T-bond yield curve (3y/5y/10y) from most recent auction or secondary market
Sources: CNBC (cnbc.com) · Yahoo Finance (finance.yahoo.com) · The Street (thestreet.com) · Trading Economics (tradingeconomics.com) · Investing.com · TradingView (tradingview.com) · IMF (imf.org) · Arab News (arabnews.com) · Al-Ahram Online (english.ahram.org.eg) · EnterpriseAM (enterpriseam.com) · Daily News Egypt (dailynewsegypt.com) · Economy Middle East (economymiddleeast.com) · Ecofin Agency (ecofinagency.com) · AGBI (agbi.com) · Bloomberg (bloomberg.com) · State Information Service Egypt (sis.gov.eg) · CBE (cbe.org.eg) · FocusEconomics (focus-economics.com) · SOFRRate.com · USAGold.com · Forbes (fortune.com / forbes.com) · World Bank (worldbank.org) · Vietnam.vn (via Vietnamnet – gold price)