Daily Market Brief

Egypt & Global Markets · Research Desk
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 · Hedge Research Desk
The Read
Risk-on momentum extended as Wall Street chipmakers rebounded and the Dow set another record, while a much weaker-than-expected US June jobs print (57k vs 110k forecast) slashed Fed rate-hike bets and pulled the 10-year UST yield to ~4.47%, sending gold steady and oil lower on Hormuz reopening optimism.
Strategy · Execution · Growth
S&P 5007,537.43+0.72%Dow Jones53,055.91+0.29%Nasdaq Composite26,121.16+1.12%FTSE 100n/vn/vDAX25,828.40+0.19%CAC 408,519.92+0.14%Gold$4,148Brent~$71.90USD/EGP48.80-0.31%EUR/USD~1.143n/vCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%S&P 5007,537.43+0.72%Dow Jones53,055.91+0.29%Nasdaq Composite26,121.16+1.12%FTSE 100n/vn/vDAX25,828.40+0.19%CAC 408,519.92+0.14%Gold$4,148Brent~$71.90USD/EGP48.80-0.31%EUR/USD~1.143n/vCBE depo19.00%holdFed3.50–3.75%
EGX 30
52,679.40
+1.21%
S&P 500
7,537.43
+0.72%
Gold
$4,148
USD / EGP
48.80
-0.31%
Brent
~$71.90
CBE / Fed
19.00% / 3.50–3.75%
policy
01

5-Year Trend

The structural picture behind today’s tape — pick an indicator to see its five-year path.

EGX 30 · index
52,679
▲ +346% 5y (approx)
8,53020,38532,24044,09455,949 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-062026-07-07 EGX 30
USD / EGP · EGP per USD
48.80
▲ +211% 5y (approx)
12.8923.0733.2543.4353.61 2021-122022-122023-122024-122026-022026-07-06 USD / EGP
CBE Overnight Deposit Rate · %
19.00%
— -825bps since Apr 2025; on hold since Feb 2026
6.7%12.2%17.8%23.3%28.8% 2021-122022-122023-122024-122025-042026-022026-07-07 CBE Overnight Deposit Rate
S&P 500 · index
7,537.43
▲ +58% 5y (approx)
3,5444,6165,6896,7617,833 2021-122022-122023-122024-122026-012026-07-07 S&P 500
Fed Funds Target (upper) · %
3.50–3.75%
— On hold; hiking risk re-priced lower after Jun NFP
-0.2%1.4%2.9%4.4%5.9% 2021-122022-122023-122024-122026-062026-07-07 Fed Funds Target (upper)
Gold · $/oz
$4,148
▼ +129% 5y (approx); off Jan 2026 ATH of $5,627
1,5002,6083,7174,8255,933 2021-122022-122023-122024-122026-01-292026-07-07 Gold
02

Equities

Global Indiceslevels · latest change
IndexLevelChange
S&P 500 Mon 07 Jul close; CNBC7,537.43+0.72%
Dow Jones Record close; CNBC 07 Jul53,055.91+0.29%
Nasdaq Composite Mon 07 Jul close; chip rebound led by AMD +6.6%; CNBC26,121.16+1.12%
FTSE 100 07 Jul intraday not confirmed; Stoxx 600 hit 52-wk high Fri 04 Jul (+0.69%)n/vn/v
DAX Yahoo Finance last confirmed print; DAX +0.85% Fri 04 Jul (CNBC)25,828.40+0.19%
CAC 40 Yahoo Finance last confirmed print; CAC +0.48% Fri 04 Jul (CNBC)8,519.92+0.14%
Nikkei 225 Yahoo Finance last confirmed print; Nikkei +38.5% YTD (ETF Trends)69,737.69-0.01%
Hang Seng Yahoo Finance; HSI closed at 23,350 Fri 04 Jul (+1.3%) after AI/biotech rally23,616.32+1.14%
Egypt & RegionEGX
IndexLevelChange
EGX 30 Close 07 Jul 2026 14:25 CLT; prev close 52,047.20; Yahoo Finance52,679.40+1.21%
03

Rates & Central Banks

Egypt · CBE
19.00%
Overnight deposit — Unchanged at May 21 2026 MPC; on hold since Feb 12 cut (was 27.25% Apr 2024 peak; -825bps in easing cycle Apr 2025–Feb 2026).
On hold
US · Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
Fed funds target — Held at Jun 17 2026 FOMC; ~50% mkt prob of Sep hike after weak Jun NFP.
Euro Area · ECB
2.25%
ECB deposit facility rate — Raised from 2.00% on 11 Jun 2026 — first hike since Sep 2023 (cambridgecurrencies.com / Statista); ECB.europa.eu data series to 02 Jul 2026.
Egypt · CBE Corridor, Bills & Bondspolicy real · yields indicative
InstrumentRate / YieldNote
Policy corridor
Overnight deposit19.00%Unchanged at May 21 2026 MPC; on hold since Feb 12 cut (was 27.25% Apr 2024 peak; -825bps in easing cycle Apr 2025–Feb 2026)
Overnight lending20.00%Unchanged; ceiling of corridor
Main operation rate19.50%Unchanged; midpoint of corridor
Discount rate19.50%Unchanged; cut to 19.5% at Feb 12 2026 meeting
Treasury bills
91-day~23.5%Estimated from secondary-market levels; CBE auction page last updated 28 Jun 2026 — exact latest print unverified, see gaps
182-day~24.0%Estimated; see gaps
273-day~24.3%Estimated; see gaps
364-day~24.8%Estimated; see gaps
Treasury bonds
3-year~24.5%Estimated secondary-market yield; CBE bond page not scraped — see gaps
5-year~24.2%Estimated; see gaps
10-year~22.5%Estimated; CBE EGP T-bonds secondary market last updated 16 Jun 2026 — see gaps
Global Benchmark Rateslatest levels
RateLevel
United States
Fed funds target Held at Jun 17 2026 FOMC; ~50% mkt prob of Sep hike after weak Jun NFP3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight) NY Fed 22 Jun 2026 (EFFR 3.63%); latest available3.61%
2-year UST Not confirmed today — see gapsn/v
10-year UST Trading Economics 07 Jul 2026 (Mon); eased ~2bps on weak NFP; was 4.484% Thu 02 Jul (Investing.com/Tradeweb)~4.47%
30-year UST Not confirmed today — see gapsn/v
Euro Area
ECB deposit facility rate Raised from 2.00% on 11 Jun 2026 — first hike since Sep 2023 (cambridgecurrencies.com / Statista); ECB.europa.eu data series to 02 Jul 20262.25%
€STR Estimated ~11bps below deposit rate; exact latest print not scraped — see gaps~2.14%
3M EURIBOR Not confirmed today — see gapsn/v
10-year Bund Not confirmed today — see gapsn/v
United Kingdom
BoE Bank Rate Held at 18 Jun 2026 MPC (7-2 vote); next decision 30 Jul (cambridgecurrencies.com)3.75%
SONIA (overnight) Estimated ~5bps below Bank Rate; exact latest print not scraped — see gaps~3.70%
10-year Gilt Not confirmed today — see gapsn/v
04

Currencies & Commodities

Currencieslatest
PairRateChange
USD / EGP48.80-0.31%
EUR / EGP~55.8n/v
GBP / EGP~61.9n/v
SAR / EGP~13.01n/v
EUR / USD~1.143n/v
GBP / USD~1.268n/v
USD / JPY~162n/v
Commoditieslatest
CommodityPrice
Gold · XAU/USD Trading Economics 07 Jul 2026; steady ~$4,150 ahead of Wed FOMC minutes; ATH $5,626.80 on 29 Jan 2026 (Barchart); JPMorgan cap estimate $4,300 Q3 / $4,500 Q4▼ $4,148
Brent Crude · ICE Investing.com open $71.90 today; Brent/WTI pressured by Hormuz reopening optimism and OPEC+ output rise; WTI ~$68–69 range (Investing.com / Trading Economics)▼ ~$71.90
WTI Crude · NYMEX Yahoo Finance futures quote; Barchart noted -3.76 (-4.66%) intraday earlier in session; oil back near pre-Iran-war levels▼ ~$68.34
Copper · COMEX Copper referenced positively (Barchart 'Copper Jumps 1%') but exact $/ lb spot not confirmed today — see gaps— n/v
05

Global Economy

US · Labour Market

June NFP prints at 57k — weakest in four months — slashing Fed hike bets

US nonfarm payrolls rose only 57,000 in June 2026, far below the 110–115k consensus, while May was revised down to 129k. The unemployment rate edged to 4.2% as participation fell to 2021 lows. Markets immediately reduced the probability of a September Fed rate hike from ~64% to ~50%, lifting equities and pulling the 10-year UST yield to ~4.47%.

CNBC · Trading Economics · Barchart
Central Banks · Fed

FOMC minutes due Wednesday; Chair Warsh signals no urgency to hike

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at the ECB Forum that inflation expectations had eased and there was no urgency to raise rates, though he reaffirmed the commitment to price stability. Markets await Wednesday's June FOMC minutes for further colour on the rate path, with odds now split on a September move.

Trading Economics · Investing.com
Energy · Iran-US

Oil retreats to pre-conflict levels as Hormuz traffic recovers and OPEC+ boosts quotas

Crude prices continued their retreat on July 7 as energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover following the interim US-Iran peace agreement. OPEC+ agreed to increase production quotas for the coming month. Brent opened near $71.90 and WTI near $68.34, both roughly at pre-conflict levels, easing the inflationary energy shock that had rattled global markets since late February.

Trading Economics · Barchart · CNBC
Tech · Semiconductors

Chipmakers rebound; AMD surges 6.6%, Broadcom +3.7% on Apple partnership extension

US semiconductor stocks rallied sharply on July 7 after a bruising stretch of volatility. AMD jumped 6.6%, Broadcom gained 3.7% after extending its partnership with Apple (+1.3%), and Nvidia added 0.4% after Hon Hai flagged continued AI demand strength. The move extended the Nasdaq to 26,121, a +1.12% session.

CNBC · Trading Economics
Europe · ECB

ECB raises deposit rate to 2.25% on 11 Jun — first hike since Sep 2023

The European Central Bank raised its deposit facility rate by 25 bps to 2.25% on June 11 2026, its first rate increase in nearly three years, responding to sticky services inflation. The move has narrowed the Bank of England–ECB gap to 150bps, supporting the euro against sterling. The next ECB decision is July 23.

cambridgecurrencies.com · Statista · ECB
06

Egypt Focus

Egypt macro, the external accounts and the EGX listing pipeline in focus — sourced from economyplusme, CBE, IMF and Enterprise.

Real GDP growth
4.4%
FY 2024/25
Headline CPI (urban)
14.6%
-0.3pp m/m
Net FX reserves
$53.1bn
end-May 2026
CBE overnight deposit
19.00%
On hold
Primary fiscal balance
3.6% of GDP
+1.2pp y/y
Remittances (10m FY25/26)
$39.2bn
10-month run rate
IMF · EFF / RSF

IMF completes 5th & 6th EFF reviews plus 1st RSF review, unlocking $2.3bn

The IMF Executive Board completed three concurrent reviews on February 25, 2026, approving a disbursement of approximately $2.3bn. Reviews covered Egypt's $8bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the $1.3bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The fund praised the narrowing current-account deficit (4.2% of GDP) supported by remittances and tourism, and gross reserves rising from $54.9bn (Dec 2024) to $59.2bn (Dec 2025). Two EFF tranches totalling ~$3.3bn remain contingent on privatisation progress.

Read full article → IMF · Al Manassa
IMF · Privatisation Conditionality

IMF flags slow divestment — only 9 of 35 targets completed; remaining $3.3bn EFF tranches at risk

The IMF's fourth-review report criticised Egypt's privatisation pace, noting only 9 of 35 targeted companies had been sold, with most involving only minority stakes. The remaining $3.3bn across the last two EFF tranches, plus additional RSF inflows, are contingent on tangible divestment progress. The Fund also noted the primary balance fell ~0.6% of GDP below target due to absent proceeds.

Read full article → Al Manassa · EnterpriseAM · IMF CR 26/69
EGX · IPO Pipeline

Government files five state-owned companies for EGX listing; ten petroleum firms next

Egypt's government submitted listing documentation to the EGX for five state-owned firms — El Nahda Industries (30–40% stake), Egyptian Ferroalloys Company (up to 20%), El Nasr Glass, El Nasr Mining, and Alexandria Co. for Refractories — currently under Financial Regulatory Authority review. Separately, EGX Vice Chairman Mohamed Sabry finalised terms for six additional listings including Sinai Manganese, El Abd Contracting, and El Nasr Housing. Prime Minister Madbouly has also reviewed plans to list ten petroleum companies.

Read full article → EnterpriseAM · African Markets
EGX · Asset Sale

Egypt close to $420mn sale of Gebel El Zeit wind farm — first significant privatisation asset sale

Egypt is finalising the $420mn sale of the state-owned 580MW Gebel El Zeit wind farm on the Gulf of Suez, which would mark the first significant asset sale under Cairo's privatisation programme. Dubai-headquartered infrastructure investor Alcazar is the reported buyer. The transaction is a key precondition for unlocking the remaining IMF EFF tranches.

Read full article → MEES · EnterpriseAM
CBE · Policy Hold

CBE holds rates at 19% for second consecutive meeting amid Iran-war inflation risks

The Monetary Policy Committee held the overnight deposit rate at 19% on May 21 2026 — its second consecutive pause after 825bps of cuts from April 2025 to February 2026. The CBE cited upside inflation risks from the Iran-US conflict, rising global energy and food prices, and exchange-rate volatility. It revised its average inflation forecast to 16–17% for 2026 (from a prior 11% estimate), while maintaining the Q4 2026 target of 7% ±2pp. Goldman Sachs separately flagged a risk of 200bps in hikes in Q3 2026.

Read full article → EgyptToday · FocusEconomics · CBE
CBE · Banking Reform

CBE guides banking sector on healthcare financing; adopts ISO 20022 for transfers

On July 5, 2026, the CBE issued guidance to the banking sector to support national healthcare initiatives. Separately, on June 21, all banks operating in Egypt adopted the international ISO 20022 standard for financial transfers, aligning Egyptian payment infrastructure with global norms and supporting the CBE's COMESA REPSS regional payment initiative.

Read full article → CBE
Remittances · FX

$39.2bn in remittances in first 10 months of FY2025/26; EGP stable at ~48.8

The CBE reported $39.2bn in remittances from Egyptians working abroad in the first ten months of FY2025/26 (July 2025–April 2026), an annualised pace of ~$47bn. Remittances increased 12% year-on-year in Q1 2026, the strongest growth since Egypt's 2022 devaluation. The USD/EGP rate has remained broadly stable near 48.8–49.3, strengthening ~5.65% over the past month as carry-trade inflows continued.

Read full article → CBE · Trading Economics · Middle East Insider
Tourism

Egypt received 14mn visitors in 2025 ($13bn+ revenue); airport volumes up 8% y/y in Mar 2026

Egypt's tourism sector reached 14 million visitors in 2025, approaching pre-pandemic peaks, generating over $13bn in revenues. Despite the Iran-US war sparking initial booking concerns, airport passenger volumes rose 8% year-on-year in March 2026 per the Ministry of Tourism, as European tourists continued visiting Red Sea resorts and Nile cruise routes. Tourism revenues remain a critical external FX pillar alongside remittances.

Read full article → Middle East Insider · Coface
Suez Canal

Canal at ~70% below 2022 traffic peak; OPEC+ supply increase and Hormuz recovery offer partial relief

Suez Canal traffic remains roughly 70% below its 2022 peak, according to Coface, as Gulf-Europe shipping continues to reroute around Africa due to Houthi disruptions. Canal fees earned $9.4bn in 2025 (vs ~$10bn historically). The interim US-Iran peace deal and recovering Strait of Hormuz traffic could ease rerouting pressure, though full normalisation remains uncertain. CBE projects a gradual recovery in Suez revenues as a key upside risk to Egypt's growth path.

Read full article → Coface · Middle East Insider · CBE MPR Q1 2026
Fiscal · Debt

Primary surplus 3.6% of GDP in FY24/25, but short of IMF target; public debt remains elevated

Egypt's primary fiscal balance improved to 3.6% of GDP in FY2024/25 from 2.4% the prior year, driven by lower primary expenditure and higher tax revenues including from T-bill interest. However, the balance fell ~0.6pp short of the IMF program target in the absence of divestment proceeds. External debt represents ~30% of total public debt, mostly held by multilateral creditors, while the IMF considers debt sustainable but assesses sovereign-crisis risk as elevated.

Read full article → IMF CR 26/69 · Coface
Inflation · CBE Target

May CPI at 14.6%; CBE's Q4 2026 target of 7% ±2pp faces increasing upside risk

Urban CPI slowed to 14.6% y/y in May 2026 (from 14.9% in April), its lowest since February, as fuel price pass-through faded. Housing and utilities accelerated further to +40.4% on higher electricity costs. The CBE's Q4 2026 target of 7% ±2pp is now seen as very challenging given the upward-revised 2026 forecast of 16–17% average inflation. The next MPC meeting date is to be confirmed; the next scheduled decision is expected in July/August.

Read full article → Trading Economics · CBE · EgyptToday
Ras El-Hekma · FDI

Ras El-Hekma coastal megacity continues to anchor Gulf FDI with $150bn planned investment to 2040

The Ras El-Hekma development on Egypt's Mediterranean coast remains a cornerstone of the country's FDI strategy, with planned Gulf-backed investment of $150bn through 2040. Alongside six operational port projects and four industrial zones in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZONE), the project is expected to diversify Egypt's FX inflow base beyond remittances and Suez fees. The CBE projects the development will support a narrowing output gap by end-FY 2025/26.

Read full article → Coface · CBE MPR

Not verified at send time: EGX 30 official close for 07 Jul 2026 not yet released by EGX/Bloomberg at research time; Yahoo Finance delayed quote used (52,679.40 at 14:25 CLT) · FTSE 100 07 Jul 2026 closing level not confirmed (last confirmed prints are from Fri 04 Jul session) · CBE EGP T-bills exact latest auction yields (91/182/273/364-day): CBE auction page last updated 28 Jun 2026; intraday T-bill rates estimated from secondary-market context only · CBE EGP T-bonds exact secondary-market yields (3/5/10-year): CBE statistics page last updated 16 Jun 2026; values estimated · SOFR exact print for 07 Jul 2026: last confirmed figure 3.61% (22 Jun 2026, EODHD/NY Fed) · €STR exact print for 07 Jul 2026: estimated ~2.14% (11bps below ECB DFR 2.25%) · SONIA exact print for 07 Jul 2026: estimated ~3.70% · 2-year and 30-year UST yields for 07 Jul 2026: not confirmed · 10-year Bund yield for 07 Jul 2026: not confirmed · 10-year Gilt yield for 07 Jul 2026: not confirmed · 3M EURIBOR for July 2026: not confirmed · EUR/EGP, GBP/EGP, SAR/EGP exact CBE interbank cross-rates for 07 Jul: derived only · GBP/USD exact spot for 07 Jul 2026: derived from GBP/EUR × EUR/USD · Copper (COMEX) exact spot price for 07 Jul 2026: directionally referenced but not confirmed · WTI/Brent exact closing prices for 07 Jul 2026: intraday references used; official settlement not confirmed at research time · Egypt June 2026 CPI (due approximately 09 Jul 2026): not yet released · CBE June 2026 net international reserves (due approximately July 2026): not yet released; May figure ($53.1bn) used · Egypt Q3/Q4 2026 GDP data: not yet available